The Cellar - Afghanistan

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- - Afghanistan (http://cellar.org/showthread.php?t=19231)

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZenGum (Post 614965)

I just want to say, I disagree with the idea that Afghanistan can be a strong point or asset in any kind of global political struggle a la Kipling's Great Game. I think it is a liability that will bleed any foreign power that moves into it, until they get tired of the bleeding and go home with loss of prestige, resources, opportunities, and human lives.

I wasn't implying that we are attempting to make a colonial state out of Afghanistan. Afghanistan, while not nearly as important as Pakistan, will most likely play a role in future events. Your and Merc's point is strong, and I agree with it, but sometimes our government can be hard headed.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Urbane Guerrilla

I think Pierce's thinking is a little too limited, too early-twentieth-century in its framing. He's not thinking in terms of the dramatic globalization that is the salient feature of the world's economy. Globalization makes talk of a nation not being "self sufficient/sustainable" moot.

From what I understand, global capitalism is based on the assumption of sufficient global resources. So, if resources are insufficient, we will regress towards a more mercantile mindset assuming we want to keep the same standards of living or don't progress on our needs.

To somewhat back up what I have been saying. There is strategic importance here and at least China has seen it. I would be very surprised if the US has not either. There are some potential conspiracy theories laced in so I do keep that in mind.

Quote:

Gwadar (Urdu: گوادر) is located on the southwestern coast of Pakistan, on the Arabian Sea. It is strategically located between three increasingly important regions: the oil-rich Middle East, heavily populated South Asia and the economically emerging and resource-laden region of Central Asia. The Gwadar Port was built on a turnkey basis by China and signifies an enlarging Chinese footprint in a critically important area. Opened in spring 2007 by then Pakistani military ruler General Pervez Musharraf, in the presence of Chinese Communications Minister Li Shenglin, Gwadar Port is now being expanded into a naval base with Chinese technical and financial assistance. Gwadar Port became operational in 2008, with the first ship to dock bringing 52000 tonnes of wheat from Canada. Minister of Ports and Shipping Sardar Nabil Ahmed Khan Gabol officially inaugurated the port on 21 December 2008.[2]. China has acknowledged that Gwadar’s strategic value is no less than that of the Karakoram Highway, which helped cement the China-Pakistan nexus. In addition to Gwadar serving as a potential Chinese naval anchor, Beijing is also interested in turning it into an energy-transport hub by building an oil pipeline from Gwadar into Chinese-ruled Xinjiang. The planned pipeline will carry crude oil sourced from Arab and African states. Such transport by pipeline will cut freight costs and also help insulate the Chinese imports from interdiction by hostile naval forces in case of any major war.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gwadar

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_O2JHv7M-9R...BPipelines.gif

Quote:

Strategically, Balochistan is mouth-watering: east of Iran, south of Afghanistan
, and boasting three Arabian sea ports, including Gwadar, practically at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz.

Gwadar - a port built by China - is the absolute key. It is the essential node in the crucial, ongoing, and still virtual Pipelineistan war between IPI and TAPI. IPI is the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline, also known as the "peace pipeline", which is planned to cross from Iranian to Pakistani Balochistan - an anathema to Washington. TAPI is the perennially troubled, US-backed Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline, which is planned to cross western Afghanistan via Herat and branch out to Kandahar and Gwadar.

Washington's dream scenario is Gwadar as the new Dubai
- while China would need Gwadar as a port and also as a base for pumping gas via a long pipeline to China. One way or another, it will all depend on local grievances being taken very seriously. Islamabad pays a pittance in royalties for the Balochis, and development aid is negligible; Balochistan is treated as a backwater. Gwadar as the new Dubai would not necessarily mean local Balochis benefiting from the boom; in many cases they could even be stripped of their local land.

To top it all, there's the New Great Game in Eurasia fact that Pakistan is a key pivot to both NATO and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), of which Pakistan is an observer. So whoever "wins" Balochistan incorporates Pakistan as a key transit corridor to either Iranian gas from the monster South Pars field or a great deal of the Caspian wealth of "gas republic" Turkmenistan.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KE09Df03.html

Quote:

The second view sees a deeper game at work, one in which the United States has been playing an important, covert, role. This role has consisted in quietly encouraging Baloch separatists to give the province a semi-autonomous profile. Such a profile would help the U.S. build a unique bridge between Balochistan and West Asia and Central Asia, and gain influence in the two regions with their huge natural resources. An additional US motive might be to open another potential front against Iran.

http://www.tni.org/archives/archives_bidwai_balochistan

Quote:

Washington's dream scenario is Gwadar as the new Dubai

Only in the dreams of Pepe Escobar. I think you would be hard pressed to see such a reckless description of strategic goals for Afghanistan among US planners.

Of course, if we managed to kick the oil habit, we could just say screw the lot of you - we don't need your pipelines; and walk away.

I'm with you Zen - That has to be the ultimate goal.

Indeed. There are so many useful, even durable, goods made of petrochemicals that it seems rather a pity to go around burning any.

We would be happier with our economies less perturbable by kerfuffles in wobbly nations that aren't, shall we say, altogether friendly. Nor altogether boringly stable.

I was expecting that to be a Goatsee.

No Goatsee... or rickroll.
It shows when, as was pointed out here in the Cellar at the time, when Rumsfeld blew it, in Afghanistan.

Quote:

Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce (Post 616153)

.., when Rumsfeld blew it, in Afghanistan.

Why do you hate America and love totalitarians?

They have better snacks.

I thought totalitarians only drank tea.

Kinda boring if you ask me.

Ze Frank is getting paid by Time now? That's great but who'll pay for his less serious endeavors?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tuba Loons (Post 616166)

I thought totalitarians only drank tea.

Kinda boring if you ask me.

Only if they are teatotalitarians.

Gawd I crack me up.