Guys, guys...Oscar will leave the place a huge mess, with food, clothes and cigar butts all over the apartment.

Conditions necessary for hurricanes are slowly appearing. Currently, warm water has formed south of Cuba where a tropical depression now called Alberto formed. First picture from US Navy sea temperature maps shows a warm water channel that carried this storm from Africa. The storm would have passed over northern S America, then intensified in the Caribbean south of Cuba. Second picture shows where that storm would have been seven days earlier. As that warm Atlantic channel moves north, those storms will stay over oceans into the Caribbean.

As Alberto approaches FL, warm water does not yet exist to intensify that storm. But as a rain storm, FL could use that rain for east coast grassland fires. Again, the first picture. Once in the Atlantic, water is not yet warm enough to create an east coast threat.

But let's not forget, last year's first named storm was this same week.

East coast hurricanes do not exist because of two reasons demonstrated by first two (below) May 2006 sea surface temperature map and 22 Jun satellite map. The Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico have stayed cold (as North America gets hot). Storm tracks from Africa remain south - traveling across S America in Brazil, French Guinea, Venezuela, and Columbia. Also notice warm waters of the Eastern Pacific. Eastern Pacific is now playing with what might be its seventh tropical storm.

Last week, the patterns changed. In the next post, 26 July sea surface temperatures remain cool. In particular, Atlantic east coast remains cold (today's NJ ocean temperature is only 64 degrees F). But Atlantic Ocean storm tracks from Africa have moved north; now track into the Caribbean Sea. The Gulf is now warm enough to birth some hurricanes.

On your mark. Get set. Start Birth'n 'em.

Latest sea temperatures and storm tracks:

I've got it! :idea:
Oh man...it's so simple.
Just reverse the rotation of the Earth and blow all that crap back at Africa.

I used to find them so exciting, then I went through four storms, three of them direct hits, as a disabled man with an infant son...
I am now terrified of them.
It was my first experience with helplessness. I still have nightmares

The other thing that sticks with me was the total devistation... and soon after all the Americans all over the world helping everyone else with storms, typhoons, wars that were not ours, etc, so proud of them.
Then remembering no one from any other nation coming to help us, funny that.

Well it did not take very long to get started once the storm path changed. Tropical Strom Chris:

Chris is expected to be a hurricane by 8AM Thursday (3 Aug) when it is north of Puerto Rico. Within five days (7 Aug), it is predicted to be between FL and Cuba with air currents pushing it westward. That is a nice long stretch of warmer water, few land masses, and reports also discuss two upper atmosphere cyclones that should strengthen Chris.

On a related note, there was an article in this morning's paper suggesting that we need to build more offshore oil rigs in the Gulf to increase production.

Wouldn't it suck if it hits New Orleans?

I'm kind of hoping it does. Better to slam into New Orleans this week than to do it in 5 years after Billions have been spent on reconstruction.

Humans have no business rebuilding that city. It's below sea level and surrounded by water in the middle of hurricane central.

So you think kicking them while they're down might help the message to sink in?

I hope so.

Anyone who wants to rebuild on ther own dime with no insurance has my blessing to do so. But New Orleans is too high risk to be supported again by the rest of the country when the next hurricane destroys it. The historic old part of the city is still above sea level. It can stay and continue to be a tourist attraction. Anything below sea level should be abandoned, or the owners should assume all risk.

East coast and gulf coast sea surface temperatures have remains low compared to last year. NJ (east coast) ocean temperature dropped to 59 degrees (15 c) durng the 1st week of August. Demonstrated below, storms from Africa (that breed hurricanes) have shifted to a more southern track across S America. That means no storms in the Caribbean to breed hurricanes.

Meanwhile, the eastern Pacific is now into a ninth tropical depression - this one called Hector.

However currently in the upper left corner, about 200 miles away from "South of the Border" is a potential tropical storm.

Warm sea surface temperatures that dominated 2005 have not existed this year. However Ernesto has a track that could take it over recently warm Gulf waters. Had the previous predicted track taken Ernesto west of Cuba, the it probably would be stronger. But the current prediction over more of Cuba means a less strength storm. Still the predicted track will contact water well over 85 degrees F (brown colored areas) up the FL west coast.

Considering how its predicted track keeps moving east, Ernesto may end up on FL east coast where waters are cooler and where the track sends it longer over land and diminished by Cuba's mountains: