Yes but what you have determined is the nature of the game as it has evolved, not some super-secret conspiracy to control outcomes.

More likely, free agency and losing the top draft picks make it harder for the top 10% of teams to remain elite. You know that. You point that out year after year: NFL success requires a round of poor seasons to accumulate quality in the draft.

[/quote]
HaHaHa....

I think that this will change this year W.HI.P ,I don't know man,I don't care for them but the Green Bay Packers are so good right now,the last 3 games are : At Kansas City which is an easy win,then Chicago at Green Bay and Detroit at Green Bay which will easily give them 16-0 easily.

Then they have a first round bye,then 2 playoff games at Green Bay which they will easily win those 2 games and then they will beat any AFC team in the Super Bowl.

I have to say I really think that they will repeat this year....maybe all the gambling money wants the pckers to win,not lose...thats why they are unbeatable this year?

.. or they're a very talented, well-coached team, which has avoided a critical injury.

The Packers look about as unbeatable as the Patriots looked a few years back.. they called them "The greatest team of all time.

It reminds of that con that they used to fool people with on the street, where a guy with a stand has 3 cards facing down, 1 of them is a queen, they show it to you, then shuffle them around, and you chose which one's the queen.
The fact is, when you chose, there is no queen down there.
Its a suckers game.
Those Patriots and these Packers are the queens.
...but go ahead, play.

so, if you're so sure that the Packers won't win the Super Bowl....

would you agree to have your account log in changed to M.US.H. if they do win it this year?

If you change your name to "Listen to W.HI.P" when they don't, then we've got a deal.

I'm not the one making the claims and guarantees here, bub.

@jimhelm
Pussy.

so, I'm a pussy because I wont bet you even up on odds that are 12 to one against me....and 1 to twelve in your favor about something you are so sure of?

Got it.

What are you on about?
The odds are at exactly 2.35 decimal at this moment in time.
Its a fair bet.
Where the hell did you get 12.00?

I found this part of your post funny:
The house is on the side where the money isn't.

I mentioned earlier that the majority of fixes between week 1 and 17 are on Thursday, Sunday, and sometimes, Monday night games.
These are games that are on when no other games are on.
These are the games that are wagered on more than the others.
These are the games where the spread is made to influence lop-sided betting.
You always find the Media concentrating on these games, and ex NFL players all agreeing with each other on who's gonna win, influencing where the money is bet.

You see if the favorite beats the spread on a Thursday night, the majority of the money generated are parlayed into Sunday, and thus less money is wagered on Sunday.
If the majority of people lose their bets on Thursday, they will be forced to wager from scratch on Sunday, thus you generate more money.


We're not talking about the existence of one of the hundreds of Gods and Goddesses in human perception.
We're talking about pocketing money.
LJ made an argument that if my theory was correct, that it would leave a paper trail.
Seriously?
Do you really think that people pocketing billions of dollars from the masses, would leave a paper trail proving their guilt?

You ask for evidence?
Do you really think that they'd leave evidence for me to provide for you to see?

Call it whatever you like, conspiracy or not, the masses lose, and their tools are helping the masses lose.
You may believe that media outlets coincidentally assist in the masses losing their money, I do not.

You could say that, if i had just come out now and said what i've been saying.
However, I've been talking about it since you first met me, and well before that.
I have been at the cellar for 6 years now talking about this
Time has shown, that in the NFL, my theory is consistent with reality.

Thank you!
This is the reality in the NFL, NHL, NBA and somewhat in the MLB.
This is another key in making profits on long term bets.
Betting on teams that hold very strong young rosters who were evidently drafting the years before, result in large prices on serious contending teams.

Perfect example for the upcoming season could be the Washington Nationals, as 19 year old, soon to be legend, Bryce Harper, will be starting in the Major leagues.
Harper is accompanied in the line-up by power-full hitting Zimmerman and Werth.
Word has it that they're after an elite lead off man to compliment this starting line-up
The team holds Starting pitcher "Stephen Strasburgh" who is the most watched starter in the game, and he is phenomenal!
Tyler Clippard is about as good as a reliever can be.
Now, the Nationals play in a division with the #1 favorite to win the world series Philadelphia Phillies, the amazing Atlanta braves, the up and coming Miami Marlins, and the poor hopeless NY Mets.
So the price is going to be through the roof when it comes out.
You need only put a few coins on Washington to make some serious dough.

You have now extended the conspiracy to all media and ex-players.

It's the paper trail, as Jim says. Not just paper, but people trail. Conspiracy theories are ridiculous according to how many people are involved in them. Because when enough people are involved, the truth will inevitably come out.

Watergate, for example, was known about by a handful of people - less than twenty, until the combination of paper trail and interested informant were located.

In this case, the billions of dollars involved means that enormous attention is paid to determining outcomes. For the consistent NFL fix you claim, over a thousand people are to not just know about it, but stake their reputations and professional futures against it. If just one wife of one fired coach speaks out, the entire thing crumbles and frankly the sport is over.

I DO believe that the lines are set according to expectations and not actual quality. That's not conspiracy, that's simply the game afoot. But is it the masses' expectations or the big money bettors? If the big money is aware of this practice it would surely disappear.

(part 2)

If you look at the regular season record against the spread you notice that it's incredibly close. Almost all teams are .500 against the spread or one game off it. Since you must win 55% of the time to make money, this is a terrible atmosphere for betting.

So what is special about the teams higher or lower than .500 against the spread. The teams you would have won money betting on this year are the Packers, Bengals, 49ers. One expected to win, one expected to lose, and one average. The teams you would have lost betting for are the Rams, Colts, Chargers. One expected to lose and two average.

What you notice above all else is that teams with a good record do well against the spread and teams with a poor record do poorly against the spread. This is exactly in line with expectations. We should think that the "expectations" wagers are now taken into account and people are betting underdogs against teams known to be good.