The Cellar - Egypt and Arab States circle toilet bowl

The Cellar (http://cellar.org/index.php)

- Current Events (http://cellar.org/forumdisplay.php?f=4)

- - Egypt and Arab States circle toilet bowl (http://cellar.org/showthread.php?t=24476)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lamplighter (Post 795678)

A new low... Merc's parents must be so proud.

My parents are dead. Thanks anyway.

Don't know if this is just hype, but there is talk that the latest bombing on Assad's security officials could prove to be a "tipping point" in the Syrian conflict. The problem is, we have no idea where this new direction will take us (civil war, genocide, democracy)

Quote:

The assassinations were the first of such high-ranking members of the elite since the revolt began and could represent a turning point in the conflict, analysts said. The nature and target of the attack strengthened the opposition’s claims that its forces have been marshaling strength to strike at the close-knit centers of state power.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/19/wo...e.html?_r=1&hp

Quote:

The rapid deterioration of Assad's control in Damascus -- the capital was largely free from serious fighting a week ago -- may be surprising, but was also increasingly inevitable. For the past 16 months, the Syrian government has been caught in a vicious cycle: A city or a town rises up, and the military arrests, tortures, and kills its citizens in a bid to quell the uprising -- but only ends up driving Syrians into the arms of the opposition and spurring further military defections. This basic dynamic first played out in miniature in regions like Deraa, then on a grander scale in cities like Homs, and now in the capital . Since the beginning of the uprising, the Assad regime has found itself in a death spiral from which it seemingly has no clue how to extricate itself.

For those of us on the outside, all we can do is watch developments carefully, be careful of rumors and sources with an agenda, and try to make sense of the few pieces of confirmed news that filter out. With that in mind, here is a primer on the three Syrian officials confirmed dead or injured.

http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/...s_death_spiral

Quote:

No answers, only questions:

1. How frightened is the Iranian regime right now about the prospect of losing its only Arab ally?

2. What specifically is the West doing to make sure that Syria's chemical weapons are secure and are not used?

3. Could this mess have been avoided by early intervention?

4. Does Asma al-Assad, Bashar's wife, regret not taking a Jordanian offer of refuge months ago?

5. Anyone want to take out long-term life insurance on newly-appointed Syrian defense minister Gen. Fahad Jassim al-Freij?

6. Did today's suicide bombers watch "Valkyrie" and learn from Tom Cruise's mistakes?

7. What does Kofi Annan do now?

UPDATED:

8. How long before we find out that al Qaeda is behind this bombing, and how long before we discover that it does not know how to stop?

http://www.theatlantic.com/internati...future/259985/

Quote:

Originally Posted by piercehawkeye45 (Post 820773)

... but there is talk that the latest bombing on Assad's security officials could prove to be a "tipping point" in the Syrian conflict.

Same questions from Libya apply. Will combat and death rates be long enough and large enough for the country to unite as a nation? Or will the fall of Assad only result in more civil war?

How united are the Syrian people into making a nation rather than craving power or seeking revenge? Important in all such wars is a very high death rate among all combatants.

Syria, like many countries in the middle east, has borders drawn in peace conferences by The Powers after WWI and WWII. Those borders do not respect the actual ethnic distributions on the ground, leading to nations that are no more than political facades, held together by repression of dissent.

Civil war - if this isn't already it - seems pretty much inevitable.

The Syrian rebels have me quite impressed.

They don't waste ammo firing into the air in celebration.

Their battlefield tactics are competent - teams with covering fire, orders being followed - things that were conspicuously absent in Libya.

They seem to have a coherent strategy, including seizing border crossings to friendly countries (= arms supply) and are making a stand in Aleppo.

Assad still has air power, though.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZenGum (Post 822628)

I heard this morning that they have acquired some tanks and are attacking the air bases.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZenGum (Post 822628)

They don't waste ammo firing into the air in celebration.

NPR ran a report last week featuring Syrian rebels shooting holes in the sky after temporarily taking a check point.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZenGum (Post 822628)

Its almost as if they are being coached, trained and coordinated...
Hmm.:rolleyes:

Well, quite a few are deserters from the army.

The saudis seem to be meddling. Iran is the only local friend Assad has. And Russia and China.

Kofi has finally chucked in the towel. He's given it every effort, but it has long since been hopeless.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZenGum (Post 822851)

Kofi has finally chucked in the towel. He's given it every effort, but it has long since been hopeless.

We'll be seeing him anon.

Every war has a strategic objective and an end game. The planning for an inevitable peace. What could Assad be thinking? Or is he that deep in denial? From this perspective, yes. But really, nobody is that naive. What are his alternatives and possible plans?

Assad didn't choose to go to war. His objective is to not lose the war somebody else started.

Quote:

Originally Posted by tw (Post 822903)

Defeat the rebels and rule as a tyrant? Other rulers have done it.

What PH said. He's clinging to power because that's all he knows. He doesn't give a damn about this silly "peace", he just wants to stay in power. His clique and supporters know that if the revolution wins, there's going to be pay back for decades of tyranny. #$"% 'em.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZenGum (Post 822928)

He doesn't give a damn about this silly "peace", he just wants to stay in power.

Two recent examples of why that strategy does not work were west of him. Meanwhile, Idi Amin and Baby Doc Duvalier both retired rich elsewhere. Why not learn from their examples? Why remain entrenched in a slowly decaying and apparently unwinnable situation?

Well it amazes me how many just know they are right. The so many who got angry because they just knew smoking cigarettes increase health. Or just knew Saddam had WMDs. In both cases, the facts and numbers said something completely different.

Amazing how many will insist the facts and history must be wrong. And amazing that so many of us do it.