The Cellar - Afghanistan = Failure in Progress

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Afghanistan = Failure in Progress

The article explains why the coalition is failing in Afghanistan, and will continue to do so.

Quote:

Today the political block in Sarposa is full again. In fact, it is overfull. When I last visited, there were 707 suspected insurgents living there. The maximum capacity for the entire facility is only 800; as of February, it held 1,550 prisoners. Now that number is certainly much higher. "There has never been so many," General Dawari, the current warden, told me in February. "Every twenty days we receive seventy new prisoners. The government thinks of this prison as a bottomless well." While new prisoners steadily arrive, few leave. Among the 707 suspected insurgents, Dawari said, only thirty-seven had ever appeared in court. "This means the courts and the government don't care," he said.

Dawari had clearly grown disillusioned with the system he'd devoted most of his life to. His son was recently kidnapped and held for more than a month, he received constant threats on his own life, and he lived essentially as a prisoner himself. "Since I've come to Kandahar, I've made many, many enemies," he said. "My house is here in Kandahar in a safe place, but I haven't been home in twenty days, because I'm scared. I stay here day and night. My superiors don't allow me to leave, either. Every day there is new intelligence that there will be an attack on the prison. Once I didn't go home for three months." Despite his sacrifices and his thirty-one years of service, Dawari told me, "tomorrow my fate could be the same as General Mayar's."

Before I left Sarposa, I returned to see Mayar once more. At some point I asked him whether he still believed in the government and justice system he says betrayed him. He thought for a while before answering: "What is unbearable is that so many people have been killed here. My own countrymen and many young Americans and people from other countries have been killed here. They are sacrificing their lives here. But no one is helping with the law." Mayar estimated that "at least 20 to 25 percent" of the Afghans doing time in Sarposa were innocent. The implication, however subtle, was clear: What kind of government has such a legal system? And for what purpose have so many lives been lost protecting such a government?

I have to reluctantly agree. This has gone on to long. We should have been out years ago. Typically the American public has no stomach for long term actions. Now if we can just get Obama to stop killing civilians with drones we might actually make some headway in killing those who need to be killed.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheMercenary (Post 814451)

We should have been out years ago.

And we clearly could have been had politicians not violated so many well proven military doctrine. Anyone watching the movie Patton can say why Afghanistan will be a defeat. Patton said the same thing about Germany. We had six months to rebuild the country. If phase four planning does not exist before the first battle and if not implemented, then all victories on the battlefield are lost.

We did no planning for the peace in VietNam. We did no planning for the peace in Iraq. Therefore most of the American deaths in Iraq were a direct result of Bremer, et al. We literally surrendered Afghanistan to the Taliban using the exact same logic. Making it almost impossible to win. Seeds of defeat were planted by low intelligent politicians in 2003. There was no phase four planning. The politicians literally yanked victory from the military's mouth.

Well, the generals were told they had 18 month to fix Afghanistan or get out. Obvious to most observers. The generals have taken an attitude that they can stay for another ten years. Cost analysis of their plan says $1 trillion. But generals really have no grasp of costs. Nor care. The largest expenditure on the Pentagon budget is training of Afghanistan troops. Those costs are even higher than the cost of the entire F-22 advanced fighter program. The most expensive fighter plane in the history of the world.

Again, had basic military doctrine been implemented (as was known even 2500 years ago), then we would not have been defeated in Afghanistan. But some idiot decided to Pearl Harbor three other nations. Iraq, Iran, and N Korea. We now have the results of that "you could not be any dumber" stupidity.

As was even discussed in the Thomas Barnett book (that UG still plans to read), no phase four planning means a military defeat.

Richard Holbrook till his dying day constantly warned us that Afghanistan was potentially another VietNam. He was obviously correct. But too many just refuse to learn the lessons from history. Complete with an Afghanistan government that has the same disease found in the S Vietnamese government. DejaVue Nam.

Due to stupidity in 2003, the military victory was abandoned when the US in 2003 surrendered to the Taliban. In 30 years, another generation will make the same stupid mistakes rather than learn from history.

Okay, who hacked Merc's account? ;)

Most of Afghanistan and the tribal areas of Pakistan are dominated by a culture of self-serving corruption and brutality. It would take a multi-generational effort by world powers to turn it even half into the sort of semi-modern semi-democratic state we'd like to see there.

Not only do people (here) not want to put in that effort, I'd say that effort is much more badly needed on the bigger, global stage. The one with China, India and Russia on it, not Fubaristan and such. Don't bleed out on a sideshow when the main game is underway.

Get the place temporarily stable and slide out with what dignity we can.

Stone Age MF's Deserve what they get....

I was hoping the "surge" under Petraeus' direction would turn things around, like he did in Iraq, but it's now obvious (to me) that it's time to get out.

We've accomplished our mission there: we stopped their tourist industry from reasserting itself. That was the mission wasn't it?

Quote:

Originally Posted by sexobon (Post 814595)

We've accomplished our mission there

According to Pakistan, we have installed an ally of India on their northern border. Fortunately, the Russians have been far more cooperative. The US military and NATO are now being supplied by Russia. Because Pakistan halted all military supplies into Afghanistan. The government in Kabul has been victim to Pakistan sponsored terrorism. Because we made Afghanistan an enemy of Pakistan. Go figure.

Time to wipe out Iran and Pakistan and move on...

Lol! genocide! nuclear holocaust! Those damn brown folks!

Cause it's not like, you know, most Iranian and Pakistani people aren't regular fucking people like everybody the fuck else.

edit: I guess I assumed the "nuclear" part there a little. Sorry. How do YOU want to wipe out all them dadgum furnners?

HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!! :lol2: fool

:dunce: you're right, goddamn am i a silly fool for not liking jokes about mass extermination!

Where is that "I don't give a fuck meter"..... about what you think.....? I saw it somewhere around here.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheMercenary (Post 814996)

Where is that "I don't give a fuck meter"..... about what you think.....?

Are you quoting Rush Limbaugh? Or reciting the rhetoric?

Quote:

Originally Posted by tw (Post 814645)

What??

Supplied THROUGH russia, he means. We're taking the land route through russia rather than through pakistan, to supply via ground, in afghanistan, I believe.

That's whazzzappinin. It's just as well, Pakistan is a Judas of a country.

To be fair (not out usual procedure, but....) the government in Lahore has also been the victim of Afghan-sponsored terrorism.

Really? It's hard to believe they could sponsor a picnic.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ibram (Post 815028)

We're taking the land route through russia rather than through pakistan, to supply via ground, in afghanistan, I believe.

Pakistan closed NATO supply lines. Now wants $5000 per truck. $5000 does not include security, fuel, or even the truck. Pakistan can demand it because NATO troops are that short on supplies - especially ammunition. And because the Russian supply lines are so expensive.

NATO had supply lines cut for over half a year. Thousands of NATO fuel tankers have been stuck and unused in Pakistan all that time. Ammo has been shipped by airplanes due to shortages.

Happens when someone does not do phase four planning and all but protects bin Laden.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ibram (Post 815028)

Supplied THROUGH russia, he means. We're taking the land route through russia rather than through pakistan, to supply via ground, in afghanistan, I believe.

How many tours did you do again?

bites Merc's tongue....

Those on the ground, in country, are the least knowledgeable about the big picture. They're too busy staying alive.

Quote:

Originally Posted by tw (Post 815088)

Who exactly was protecting Bin Laden? Cite please.