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-   -   What's in Your Wallet? (http://cellar.org/showthread.php?t=9517)

tw 11-07-2005 07:34 PM

What's in Your Wallet?
 
From the Nightly Business Report of 4 Nov 2005:
Quote:

PAUL KANGAS: My guest market monitor this week is Douglas Jimerson, president of National Investment Advisors. And Doug, welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT.

DOUGLAS JIMERSON, PRESIDENT, NATIONAL INVESTMENT ADVISORS: Thank you, Paul, great to be back.

KANGAS: For some time now you have been very cautious about owning stocks saying that they have been showing characteristics of a classic bear market. Have you changed your opinion or have you become even more bearish?

JIMERSON: I haven`t changed my opinion. I am still of the same opinion.

KANGAS: Still bearish. But why?

JIMERSON: This market is trendless. Its been flat for, gee, how long, we cant even remember.

KANGAS: That`s not good for the bears or the bulls.

JIMERSON: No, its not. But the -- the real concern I have is interest rates. Because we continue to have a ratcheting higher of the short-term rates and the long-term rates are going up. The Treasury bonds and notes are now below their long-term moving averages.

KANGAS: So that is your main concern is higher interest rates. How much higher do you think they can go?

JIMERSON: You know, I don`t have that crystal ball. But it does seem that the Fed is intent on making certain that they flush out any hint of inflation in spite of possible deflationary hints from overseas and in spite of, you know, what we are seeing in the economy employment reports don`t seem too bullish.

KANGAS: So you believe in the old axiom don`t fight the Fed when they are boosting.

JIMERSON: Absolutely.

KANGAS: OK. Now one group that you have been bullish on and very correctly so has been in the oil sector. But you did recommend taking some profits there on your last visit with us in early May of this year. What is your stance on the oils now?

JIMERSON: Well, by and large were flat the oils. You know, as you look at ExxonMobil which I have been talking about for years, this is basically unchanged, but it`s had a wild ride since last May. And so I really think that that long-term bull phase for the oil stocks is passed.

KANGAS: OK. Now on that last visit in May, you said that the NASDAQ market was due for a fall and you even recommended purchasing a bearish mutual fund. Lets see how its done since May. I think it was the 5th of May you were with us.

JIMERSON: Right.

KANGAS: There we see it, down 9.3 percent. Now you did have a profit briefly in it when the market went down. But now its moving against you. Are you still with it?

JIMERSON: Absolutely. I was calling that a long-term investment. And the NASDAQ is down for the year still. That fund is up for the year still. I think that we are going to see a more important or more significant leg down in the market in the next month or so.

KANGAS: And it will be lead by the NASDAQ market?

JIMERSON: I think so. Although, an important element of this is going to be a correction in the oil stocks which corrected during the summer and I expect --

KANGAS: They corrected today pretty well also.

JIMERSON: I believe its the beginning of a next leg down in the oil stocks.

KANGAS: So no year-end rally for the oils, in other words.

JIMERSON: No. And I think that they there are better opportunities overseas. I`m suggesting that --

KANGAS: You have some new recommendations on the buy side.

JIMERSON: Yes. I think its good to look at markets that are in a very different phase from ours. The bubble burst here in 2000. The bubble in Japan burst in 1990. And their recovery has been under way for a long time. And their interest rates are very low, practically nil.

KANGAS: Can we get specific as to recommendations?

JIMERSON: A couple of very nice opportunities with no-load funds would be the Rydex Japan fund.

KANGAS: It has had quite a rise.

JIMERSON: It`s begun a very nice advance.

KANGAS: So you think that this chart just is typical of the beginning of a trend.

JIMERSON: Oh, I think so. Now obviously its going to correct if our market corrects. But I think this is a long-term opportunity.

KANGAS: Do you have another choice in that area?

JIMERSON: And Fidelity Japan fund also, another no-load fund. So its diversified within the Japanese market which is very much out of phase with the American markets.

KANGAS: OK, so you are going overseas, do you own any of these two securities personally?

JIMERSON: At this point, no.
BTW, many of those Market Monitor guests on NBR make for some of the best investment information sources. A tribute to interviews by Paul Kangas.

Many MBA type brokers will simply hype stocks. But even many of them are changing their tune. Too many are now recommending investments outside of America. How can this be if George Jr has created five years of growth? The growth has not existed thanks to a former alcoholic now addicted to Treasury credit cards and a destructive tax cut. As posted by this author so many years ago, that tax cut will result in a few good years followed by economic forces that punish the economy. There is no reason for history to change this time. We are now entering the punishment phase as demonstrated by so many stock brokers who also note that the stock market has been completely flat during the entire George Jr administration. How can this be if there has been growth?

Where is all this growth? Its clearly well invested - in bullets and broken Humvees in Iraq - in SUVs - in all those more efficient factory and power plant equipment not invented in America because George Jr only advocated more oil consumption and denials about global warming. The classic 'guns or butter' concept from economics. Any stock brokers here want to recommend a domestic investment? Good ones are scarce as the Fed must drastically increase interest rates to correct for George Jr's tax cut and for what any alcoholic would call a balanced budget.

Remember all those Capital One, et al credit cards with near zero interest rates? Where were they making money? They have invested in US. They need you to maintain high balances. Then when you default on a single payment - even to the gas company - then they apply massive interest rates to that large balance. Maybe 20%. Credit card companies are getting ready to reap huge profits because so many Americans do not and cannot pay off their credit cards. Part of those upcoming profits includes the 'reform' of bankruptcy laws. Don't think for one minute that those credit card companies have not been thinking long term. They needed and will now get even the Fed to increase interest rates. And unlike house mortgage companies, then credit card companies can immediately apply those higher rates to your debts. Worse still, you may not be able to declare bankruptcy; must keep making payments for what - a decade? Long term and profitable planning.

If you have any such debts, better be paying them off ASAP. The legacy of George Jr economics is fast approaching.

Ahhh... but nobody expected the levees to be breached. What's in your wallet?

xoxoxoBruce 11-07-2005 07:59 PM

I own my soul. The company store can go to hell. ;)

russotto 11-08-2005 10:23 PM

I know that credit card companies don't think long term. How? Simple

1) Credit card companies are run by MBAs

2) MBAs don't think long term, as tw often reminds us

3) Credit card companies don't think long term.

Q.E.D

russotto 11-08-2005 10:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce
I own my soul. The company store can go to hell. ;)

I arranged a lease/leaseback arrangement with the company store, so I could keep my soul and borrow on it too. Then when the company went bankrupt, I bought back my own debt for pennies on the dollar. I still have the soul, but after being involved in that, I don't know that it's useful anymore.

Sun_Sparkz 11-08-2005 11:17 PM

drivers license
visa card
silver shrapnel
petrol reciepts x 4
book of 10 stamps with 4 missing
asthma card
implanon info card
myer card
medicare card
NRMA card



oooooooooh. its not that kind of thread.. ;)

footfootfoot 11-09-2005 05:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sun_Sparkz
drivers license
visa card
silver shrapnel
petrol reciepts x 4
book of 10 stamps with 4 missing
asthma card
implanon info card
myer card
medicare card
NRMA card



oooooooooh. its not that kind of thread.. ;)

I think sun_sparkz thread is more interesting, IMO. I'll bet there are survivalists who have more faith in the economy/shrub admin. than I do.

I don't use a wallet, it all floats freely and mingles with the pocket lint, I usually carry my D.L., my debit card, my swiss army knife (tinker), and my NYBG membership card. On rare occasions there is folding money.

tw 11-09-2005 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by footfootfoot
On rare occasions there is folding money.

Doesn't anybody carry cash anymore?

Meanwhile, what is a NRMA card, a myer card, and an implanon info card?

plthijinx 11-09-2005 01:15 PM

i've got 6 bucks cash! yeppers! a fiver and a single, i do!
wallet:
D/L
debit card
pilot license
picture of my son
phone #'s
kroger card (points thingy for cheaper groceries and gas)
receipts
an uncashed check from my g/f
wal-fart gift card
blockbuster card
expired concealed handgun license (haven't had time to renew)
and various business cards.

Sun_Sparkz 11-09-2005 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tw
Meanwhile, what is a NRMA card, a myer card, and an implanon info card?

NRMA is a road side assistance motor club, It costs me $123 a year and i get free tows, tyre changes etc, and help if ever i break down anywhere in australia.. for me who knows nothing about cars, yet travels approx 800kilometres a week- its essential.

Myer is a store card - (you dont have myer? grace bros? david jones?) its like a credit card that i can use at myer, Dj's, jimmy b's, coles and target.

Implanon card is in my wallet so in case im ever in an accident or anything the doctors will check my wallet and know that i have an implanon implant in my arm (a 5cm tube lodged in my bicep muscle that releases small amounts of ostregen daily)..ick!



I dont cary cash, i find if i have it.. i spend it (its not money in the bank!). where as, when i use the card i can feel it hurting the actual bank balance. I save without cash.

footfootfoot 11-09-2005 08:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tw
Doesn't anybody carry cash anymore?

My wife does that for me ;)

Quote:

Originally Posted by tw
Meanwhile, what is a NRMA card, a myer card, and an implanon info card?

Not sure about the first two, but my guess is the third is IMPLANON as in:
"I'm planning on...when I get the time, money, etc."

Oh, just read sparkz description. It's like a med alert bracelet. My mom's says: 'hypochondriac'

russotto 11-09-2005 08:26 PM

Aside from all the other crap, I have a 2005 Republican National Committee membership card. That makes me a card-carrying Republican. It's like a "get out of Guantanemo free" card.

Griff 11-10-2005 05:58 AM

Or an automatic internment card during the Obama administration.

wolf 11-10-2005 12:55 PM

D/L
CCW
MasterCard
MAC card (note to folks outside of Phila. This is an ATM card. Our ATMs were all called "MAC" (Money Access Center) when they first brought them online (except the now defunct Girard Bank machines, which were called "George.") Even though few ATMs in the area still bear the MAC logo, they are still called that. By darn near everybody.
Two gasoline company Cards
NRA Member Card
2nd Amendment Sisters Member Card
Insurance Card
$87 (includes $2 bill)
Asst fortune cookie inserts
$1 coupon from RJ Reynolds
Several crumpled and unreadable store receipts, at least one of which is a point of sale debit that I should have listed in my checkbook register three weeks ago.

I do not have any Capital One cards. But I do like those vikings.

Trilby 11-10-2005 01:00 PM

D/L
about fifty of those debit receipt's that I've yet to record in my checkbook
my P.O. card
four no-longer-working credit cards
pictures of my boys (handsome devils, they are!)
library card X2
Book store discount card
CPR/ALS card
License to practice radiography
License to practice Nursing
License to Kill
(kidding 'bout that last one.)

jinx 11-10-2005 01:12 PM

D/L
D/L change of address card
Master/debit card
Voter info card
J.Crew card
Pottery Barn gift card ($50)
Target gift card ($25)
Starbucks card with unknown amount left on it
Barnes & Noble member card
$23.35 cash/coin
acorn lid "whistle"

Trilby 11-10-2005 01:18 PM

how come jinx gets all the gift cards, huh???? I'd like a gift card...

...is jinx a yuppie?

jinx 11-10-2005 01:22 PM

If yuppie still means young, urban, professional - no, no and no. If gift cards have something to do with it, I just might be.

Clodfobble 11-10-2005 06:46 PM

Damn, I carry way more crap around than most of you.

--Drivers license
--Old drivers license with my maiden name on it for the occasional proof of identity
--Insurance card
--Things Remembered rewards card from when I got someone something engraved two Christmases ago
--Long distance calling card
--Old college student ID for discounts in various places
--Lifetime Complimentary Pass to performances by my high school theatre department
--Capital One card (Hooray for Vikings!)
--Library Card
--ATM card
--Visa Credit card
--Little information card telling me the model number for replacement printer cartridges in my printer
--Randall's card (grocery store--and I don't shop at Randall's)
--Medical insurance card
--Discount card given to me by a realtor at some point
--Ancient Blockbuster card from back when they laminated them by hand
--CPR Certification
--A "get enough stamps and you get $ off" card from a store that closed about 6 years ago (throwing that one away now)
--A receipt giving me $10 off my next Salvation Army purchase
--A stamp-sized hologram of Earth
--A laminated quote from the perspectives section of Newsweek around 1996 or so: "'Your gloves don't match your shoes.' Chanted at police who wore protective clothing during last week's gay-rights demonstration in Washington."
--A business card of a coworker
--A Simon (mall chain) giftcard
--A doctor's appointment reminder card for next Tuesday
--A Jo-Ann's giftcard with about $3 left on it (local fabric store)
--The receipt from our downpayment on our house that we bought two years ago, with the old owner's new address scrawled on the back.
--A gift certificate to a restaurant called "Tokyo One" in Dallas from about 2000
--A pen
--My checkbook

Pie 11-10-2005 09:19 PM

Amex
Visa card
Debit card
Corporate Visa
HMO card
AAA card
Driver's License
Frequent flyer card
Wegman's card
Business cards
~$80, random change

lookout123 11-10-2005 11:39 PM

1972 - DJIA 1003
1982 - DJIA 1004

two (many more really, but these two i've looked at in the last week) run of the mill Growth and Income mutual funds tripled assets by using the same systems, processes, and prospectus that they did for the 40 years before this time period.

in rough or scary times disinvestors lose, investors win.

oh my wallet contains:

$17 cash
Debit card
credit card
Pictures of family
DL
military ID

tw 11-11-2005 05:47 PM

2 Attachment(s)
So is that wallet one of a creditor or a debtor? Many only have instruments of debtors - credit cards. And yet current economic conditions say you better not be a debtor with storm cloud brewing on the horizon. Symptoms are similar to the early 1970s.

Paying big bucks for a war that, somehow, does not show up on federal spread sheets.

Massive government spending that, last time, was so dependent on European and Japanese bond buyers. Today that same debt problem is very dependent on Chinese buyers.

Serious trade imbalances that don't have any sign of being corrected as even jobs move overseas while a wave of new innovative products diminishes.

Unprecedented debts among consumers - we have never had so many consumers this deep in debt.

Unrealistic prices for things such as housing. A market driven mostly by rediculously low interest rates that will only keep increasing to address serious and impending inflation.

Sharp increases in energy prices created by extreme and unproductive consumption levels - ie car MPG back then dropped from 17 MPG to 8 and 12 MPG. Today the 25 MPG number continues to be driven lower by vehicles that only get 8 and 12 MPG.

Domestic automakers in serious financial trouble. Combined with some whose entire product line is incompatible with the future, whose costs due to inferior design are excessive, and whose corporate leaders are again trying to blame the unions.

One new factors is the impending Pension Fund disaster that looms like the S&L crisis of the mid 1980s. A problem created by bean counter mentalities whose function was to make a profit - the purpose of those financial instruments irrelevant.

Let's look at the stock market when these same factors previously existed as cited by Lookout123. Notice the pathetic growth rates from 1970 until the early 1980s - when gasoline went from the highest price in mankind to the lowest.

The first chart uses a linear scale that really distorts the numbers. The second chart uses a logrithmic scale that puts the stock market Dow Jones Industrial Average into useful perspsetive:

lookout123 11-11-2005 08:25 PM

my point was that during that time period we had presidential problems, oil problems, middle east problems, war problems, and a flat economy and yet people with discipline and patience did very very well.

again a case of one person seeing a glass as half full while the other tears their hair out and screams to everyone who will listen "the sky is falling the sky is falling, if only you were as smart as me you would know the sky is falling!!!"

tw 11-15-2005 06:24 PM

Forces continue today to contribute to an economic downturn. The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation - a Federal government insurance company for Pension Funds - has announced a $22.8 billion shortage. A number that does not yet include the almost $3 billion default by Delphi onto the fund.

Again, we go to GM as a classic example of a company whose spread sheets mask a company in severe trouble. GM's products have long since been poor. One industry analyst recently pegged GM products at about $3,000 inferior to market standards. Of course, and contrary to GM's propaganda, the unions contribute only $650 per vehicle. GM products are that bad due to management. Even a chief designer is a graphics art student - not a hardware designer.

So what has GM been doing to mask their bad product line? Rick Wagoner's people were simply fudging the spread sheets to make the company look profitable. They shorted the Pension Funds and played other spread sheet tricks to claim profits that do not really exist.

Just like the S&L crisis of the 1980s, these spread sheet games to pretend GM makes good cars will eventually come out of your pocket. The PBGC deficient is just another way you will pay for GM that should have long been driven to bankruptcy - so that their bad management was removed.

GM buys companies, sucks out the profitable parts using cost controls, and then spins off the remnants. Delphi is just the latest example of these spread sheet games. Already GMs 2001 accounting games is under investigation. Meanwhile, the criminals will not be prosecuted. It’s simply a question of how big the retirement bonus will be for Rich Wagoner - a man who never worked in the product side of GM - and therefore was chosen over Louis Hughes as GM's top man. You will pay for his type as more large companies drop their pension funds into your lap - the PBGC that is already $23 billion in debit - a number that will only increase due to MBA management games with the spread sheets.

Notice the trends in that Dow Jones average chart. As a result of spead sheet games of the 1970s, higher oil prices, a war waged for reasons that were lies, etc; then the US did not see growth until about 1982. That growth was constant until about 2000 when a new president created same mistakes of the 1970s - including wild and uncontrolled government spending, masked by lies or spin, and not seen on this scale since Richard Nixon. This president even advocates torture and denies it.

Just more indications that the lurker should be protecting his financial positions. Prospects for a severe downturn are appearing.

seakdivers 11-15-2005 06:56 PM

lessee... starting at the top:

PADI open water diving cert card
membership card to tanning salon (haven't gone in a looong time)
my husband's Alaska Airlines frequent flier card
Barnes & Noble membership card
$12 in cash (wooot!! the kids didn't steal it all!!!)
Providian gold visa
AT&T platinum mastercard (what were they thinking??)
Wells Fargo platinum visa (see above)
Wells Fargo visa check card
Discover platinum card (I wonder if I've ever used this thing)
driver's license
2 pass thingys to the upper part of the Stratosphere in Vegas
my hunting/ fishing license
2 Hot Topic frequent buyer cards I need to turn in
my checkbook
a bunch of coins

Geeeez I guess I cleaned my wallet out before the last trip - I usually have way more in there than that!

russotto 11-19-2005 09:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tw
So is that wallet one of a creditor or a debtor? Many only have instruments of debtors - credit cards. And yet current economic conditions say you better not be a debtor with storm cloud brewing on the horizon. Symptoms are similar to the early 1970s.

Well, except for the low interest rates and low inflation.

As for credit cards...give me a good reason I shouldn't accept a standing offer of a 25-day interest free loan, and I might change my mind.

marichiko 11-20-2005 12:07 AM

starbucks gift card with maybe $4.20 cents left on it
dl
debit card
$1.00 and change
AAA card
Medicare card (all but worthless - you can die nicely with the help of your Medicare card))
Library cards from 3 different Colorado libraries
King Soopers discount card
crumpled receipts that I can no longer read
phone book delivery contract
long distance calling card

classicman 12-29-2007 11:59 PM

bump

Quote:

Originally Posted by Griff (Post 196136)
Or an automatic internment card during the Obama administration.


OK you win - you called it first!

TheMercenary 12-31-2007 03:36 PM

Ok, this could be a long list:

D/L
Military ID
CCW License
Security Badge
Security Card for computer aka CAC Card
Visa
MC
Visa Debit card
Bank Debit card (second account)
Exxon Card
Insurance Card
Block Buster Card
Second Insurance card (motorcycle0
Boat Insurance Card
Sea Tow Card
Boat US Card
Boater World Card
Boater Safety Card from Coast Guard
NRA Card
GOA Card
SS Card
Old College ID with me with really long hair
Voter Registration Card
Passport Service Card
SeaDoo service Card
Check Cashing Card (local Store)
Organ Donor Card
Copy of old hip pocket travel orders
Laminated copy of quote "Not the critic that counts..."
Health Insurance Card
$228
lawyer business card
Storage Access code
Pictures of kids
Hunting Fishing License
Tricare Supplement Insurance Card
Miniture of Masters Degree
Professional License (#1, #2, & #3)
Certifications (A, B C, D)
Major Malpractice Insurance Card
Bunch of Change
2 Debit Receipts

Chris_Fletcher 12-31-2007 05:06 PM

Whole lotta pocket lint and an expired driver license from another state

Stormieweather 12-31-2007 07:35 PM

ZERO credit cards...not a single one. I have not owned one since my divorce 8 years ago.

In fact, until last September when my car finally died and I had to finance a new one, I didn't owe a single person or entity any sort of debt whatsoever. My only obligations were for rent on my house, utilities and daycare.

I've found that buying things on credit is just not necessary if one chooses not to. We never go without, have very nice computers, musical equipment, clothing, and the usual toys people indulge in...but all of it was paid for at the time of purchase. We aren't wealthy, by any means, but we do budget and plan for future expenditures ie: birthdays, vacations, upgrades to possessions, Christmas and retirement.

monster 12-31-2007 07:51 PM

It is also possible to have credit cards and not run up huge balances. If you pay them off completely each month, you can make good use of the added insurance you get from buying using a credit card. Credit cards do not have to mean debt. Not that there's anything wrong with avoiding them altogether, but neither are all card users financially irresponsible.

Now are we ladies doing wallet or handbag/purse contents? because if the latter, I'd better wait until another day/year...... :eek:


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