Oops UT is right again.
 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Sales of new single-family U.S. homes unexpectedly rose in July and new orders for durable goods posted strong gains that underlined the economy's strength just before a credit crisis socked financial markets.

How 'bout them apples?

Was there ever any doubt???

My stopped clock was looked at, at the right moment, is all.

Also right is tw who cautioned us against paying attention to "Mad Money" TV loudmouth analyst Jim Cramer... although I don't think he could remember the guy's name. Last week Cramer was screaming bloody murder about the housing turndown and the upcoming recession.

"They know NOTHING!"

But they know lots of it, Clod.

Oh sure--I was just quoting Cramer's screaming rant, which I only heard because it was picked up on the Colbert Report.

Turns out UT is wrong! Well at least thats what Robert Reich said...

Is activity a good indicator?
There is bound to be a lot of activity from people selling at a loss, to bail out of a mortgage they can't afford, then buying the house they should have bought in the first place, because they have to live somewhere.

Believe nothing until the big numbers reflect it: GDP, employment, inflation. And know ye that the recession is inevitable -- it's just that the housing bubble popped two years ago according to some of these same guys. When the recession happens they will say they were right.

Sure, if they say it's going to rain tomorrow, every day, they'll be right eventually.

I heard that unemployment was up in July.

Watch - the recession will hit in April, 2009, just in time to blame the new Democratic president.:right:

Unemployment was up in July but the real news was that Employment was slightly down in August. But the numbers aren't really big enough to matter yet. Unemployment went from 4.5 to 4.6 and the economy lost 4000 jobs after creating 3 million. When Unemployment goes to 6 and the economy is losing 200,000 jobs/month, that's real news.

Nobody will notice because the economy will be reported as secretly good. We will ferret out the real information here... such as, a Presidency can't have an effect on the economy that quickly.

Reich is calling the recession now... to justify a Dem presidency. gotta love politics

This is more than just an economy problem. We go hog wild, every four years, with wildly gesticulating policies that never reach fruition.

the president has very little impact on the economic cycle. he can only do a few things. clinton isn't any more responsible for the booming '90's than bush is to blame for the recession at the beginning of the decade (or the recovery for that matter).

Take this bull market that recently ended, for instance. Was it caused by the president? no. it was caused by easy credit and a sinking dollar. the early catalyst was historically low interest rates which sparked a housing boom, which brought jobs, an increase in the demand for materials, instant cash from the sale of said homes, etc.

Was Clinton responsible for the booming '90's? no. the fact that americans finally fell in love with computers did. instead of having one geek on the block having that web thing, it became a source of scorn if you didn't have at least one high speed connection in your home. then the tech boom was magnified for awhile before the turn of the century when every $30-40/hour computer geek was charging $100+/hour to get you "y2k compliant". said geeks spent that money somewhere, so demand for products was high. of course january 1st rolled around, we woke up and realized that the world was still standing and our coffee pots hadn't conspired with our printers to throw us into slavery... and that geek was now worth $30/hour again if we needed him at all. Oh, and btw - we started to expect the companies who sold us stock to also produce a product. at a profit. Bull Run Over.

And then a couple of planes went boom giving the average american someone to blame for the fall in their lucent stock. and hey, what's behind this curtain that says Worldcom...

The fed chairman has more direct effect on the economy than the president, and even that effect is never felt until 6-9 months after a decision is made.

markets go up. markets go down. but then... markets go up. before they go down.