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from The Economist of 12 Aug 2004
THEY have a dismal track record when it comes to predicting economic growth, exchange rates or the direction of the stockmarket. So you might have expected economists to despair at the thought of forecasting sports results. Not at all. Efforts to work out the number of medals which countries are likely to get in the Athens Olympics, which start on August 13th, are well under way.

Two economists, Andrew Bernard of the Tuck School of Business, and Meghan Busse of the Haas School of Business, accurately predicted the number of medals that American athletes would take home in the Sydney games four years ago (97), as well as the number of gold medals (39). For nine other countries, they were only one medal out. Whether luck played its part ... can be tested: the two recently published their predictions for the Athens games. They think that America will get 93 medals.

Their predictions rely entirely on totting up economic statistics. Two are key: population and wealth. More people means a higher chance of producing a top triple jumper. And the higher a country's income, the better the odds that a synchronised swimmer, say, will receive the training and facilities needed to compete with the world's best. Hosting the games also gives a boost to the medal tally, not least because of the support of local fans. The two economists expect Greece to more than double the number of medals that it wins compared with four years ago.

For those inclined to ponder such things, instead of marvelling at the skills in beach volleyball or rhythmic gymnastics, the Athens games also help undermine the notion of a widening gap between rich and poor countries. The share of medals won by the biggest and richest countries has been shrinking over the past 40 years. In 1960, the top ten medal-winning countries won 78% of the total medals, compared with 55% in 2000. Although they are tipping America to win the most medals in Athens, the two economists expect America's harvest of medals to decline this year for the third games in a row.

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