[tw]

Originally Posted by bluesdave

I am wondering if maybe Bush will win in a more convincing manner than many people have been predicting. Is it possible that he too, like John Howard, might actually increase his vote? It seems to me that Bush has a great deal more grass roots support than some of the political pundits would have us believe.

George Jr learned early on (a Frontline report on the PBS network says it was in the Iowa cacuses for his father) that immense support is obtained from the religious right. Unlike most others, the right wing religious vote as a block AND (more important) they actually vote. For example, heavy rains in some states may cause a Kerry loss in that state. (Also remember, presidents are elected by states and not by the total national voter count. There is good reason for this.).

Facts have little effect on those driven by emotion. Religion is a deep rooted emotion among the right wing. They are told what to do and do it in mass. For same reasons, right wing religious people are often most easily taken in scams. They tend to be that trusting.

You ask if George Jr is more convincing. Facts say he has been lying or intentionally misleading all along. He implies Saddam attacked the WTC and Pentagon - an outright lie - and 60% of Americans believed it. A glaring example of how people make decisions.

In fact, I had no use for the debates. No facts to be learned there. Debates are about emotional perceptions because that emotion is what most people use instead of fact. Irrelevant to George's constituents is that he lied or intentionally decieved about 9/11, WMDs, basic science such as stem cells, a man to Mars boondoogle, or that the 'new' Europe supports him. It does not matter. George has supporters that regard him as one of their own and will vote for him in mass even if the 18th hurricane or a large and overdue Missouri earthquake makes voting all but impossible.

This might be a rare election. The mainstream centrists and the liberal voters may turn out like no one has seen in 40 years. But again, that would not be due to facts. You need only see how contentious discussion has been here to appreciate that the US has been very slowly getting confrontational.

This election could go either way. There are too many new variables. My personal believe is that George Jr will win this only because I don't believe centrists still possess enough conviction to get out and vote. Don't let the opinions posted here decieve you. I believe opinions here of Kerry v. Bush is 50-50 with the George Jr supporters remaining quiet because their opinions are not based in facts. Again, why do people really have opinions? Facts often have little to do with it as demonstrated by posts from Lookout123 - that never provide supporting facts for his conclusion. He has his opinions and his rights to them. But he was made a poster boy mostly to demonstrate this point - many never really have logical reasons for their convictions. They just know. It is how most people decide.

Will the presidential vote effect House and Congressional elections? In the last 30 years, the two have tended to be different because voting was more about facts, political agendas, and political competancy. All local factors that have not been influenced by the presidential issues. Once Congressman could be elected on a "president's coat tails". Recent Congressional election have gone contrary to how the district voted for president. But since emotion may be a larger factor, then it might - only just might - boil over into those Congressional races.

Its rather difficult to say what will happen. Most people who say they might vote one way also tend not to vote. It is why this small minority - the religious right - is so powerful. This time around, most everyone says they will definitely vote this time. Only one said he still would not vote. I am not fully convinced. One thing about the religious. When they say they will do something (ie vote), then they do.

It is said that voter registration is at an all time high. If true, then right wing extremist voters will have diminish voting power. Unfortunately, reports cite a trend but don't provide specific numbers. Therefore I don't put much credibility into what I must assume is only a minor registration increase. Cannot say if this means we will see record turnouts.

Bottom line - this will be a very interesting election. More than one state may have to perform a recount. Furthermore, some electronic voting machines make a recount not possible. How's that for an interesting wild card. Even Supreme Court justices who voted to elect George Jr have also stated they seriously regret having made that vote. Probably because they do not believe sufficient time existed to make a more informed decision. Nobody wants another FL, in part, because public emotion is running higher.

Hope this provides some feel for the temperatures on this North American continent.

BTW, polls in Canada say 4 out of 5 Canadians want George Jr replaced. Compare that to how opinions differ just meters across an open border. They both see the same facts. But emotions are clearly different below the 49th parallel.