[richlevy]

Originally Posted by Undertoad

It's been a year and two months since you put the probability at 25% for 5 years

And I said

This of course assumes a consistent enlistment/reenlistment rate. With tours in Iraq being extended beyond the promised 12 months, and the understanding that signing up for military service probably means signing up for a year in Iraq, this might become an issue.

Re-enlistment is down, and worse than I expected.

Last April, the Army was making its goals. Ok, this was according to an article in the Washington Times, but even they couldn't cook the numbers.

"This tends to rebut armchair critics who said the sky is falling and the vultures are circling and the Army is gong to lose all its troops," said Lt. Col. Franklin Childress, an Army spokesman at the Pentagon. "This is not true. The soldiers get it."
The Army also met its recruiting goal of 73,800 inductees last fiscal year, and 34,000 for the first six months of this fiscal year, which began Oct. 1.

I have been reading article about declining recruitment for the past few months now.

This article sums up the current situation.

Next year could be the toughest for recruiting since the all-volunteer Army began in 1973, Maj. Gen. Rochelle predicts. "It's comparable to having no savings account," added RAND Corp specialist Beth Asch. "They'll be living month to month." The hiring of poorly educated, unqualified troops will likely force a critical drop in the capabilities, training and readiness of the modern military, experts predict.

"America faces a choice," Paul Glastris and former Army captain Phil Carter wrote in the Washington Monthly in March. "It can be the world's superpower, or it can maintain the all-volunteer military, but it probably can't do both."

The idea of not having a draft may go down in history as being the biggest campaign lie that Bush told.

From 2004 Presidential Debate transcript

FARLEY: Mr. President, since we continue to police the world, how do you intend to maintain our military presence without reinstituting a draft?

BUSH: Yes, that's a great question. Thanks.

I hear there's rumors on the Internets (sic) that we're going to have a draft. We're not going to have a draft, period. The all- volunteer army works. It works particularly when we pay our troops well. It works when we make sure they've got housing, like we have done in the last military budgets.

An all-volunteer army is best suited to fight the new wars of the 21st century, which is to be specialized and to find these people as they hide around the world.

(Bush talks about redeployment and new technologies)

Now, forget all this talk about a draft. We're not going to have a draft so long as I am the president.

Of course it's always possible that we can stick it out for another three years and dump the problem on the next President, so President Bush might be technically correct in that the draft was not instituted on his watch.