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Re-enlistment is down, and worse than I expected.
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something to keep in mind in the cycle of over/under goals on enlistments is the general strength of the economy and influences like attacks on the nation.
i heard on Air America last week that this year is likely to be the first year that the army will miss recruiting goals. the second part of the statement was left off. it will be the first year
since 1999 that they will miss goals.
it is an open secret that enlistments and retention ebb and flow with the economy. when the economy is cooking there are many more exciting and financially lucrative ideas floating around the head of the average 17-22 year old. when the economy cools off, enlistment numbers tend to increase because it is a steady job, with excellent benefits and money for college.
when you add in an attack upon the nation to get the blood flowing, you figure the rest out.
enlistment goals are based upon projected needs - expected retention ratios. when the economy is slow, more people stay in for the security of a known job. when the economy is hot they look for every way to get out early. the economy is picking up and when you add in the hardship of repeated deployments, it is pretty easy to understand why enlistment goals go up.
is a draft utterly impossible? no - nothing is impossible. it is extremely unlikely though for a couple of reasons. the military has seen lean times in the recruiting world before, it is just a cycle. the senior leadership entered the military in a time of draftees - they know the damage it did to the military. most of them spent half their careers fighting the apathy and incompetence unleashed by the draft. they will fight tooth and nail to prevent that from happening to their military again.