John Burns who has spent many years in Iraqi has reported on Charlie Rose for those many years. History demonstrates he has truly seen what is happening and therefore what will probably happen. Last night Burns summarized the situation acutely:
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The Iraqis will never stand up until the Americans stand down.
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IOW what George Jr proposes will never end the war. Either we are fully in or we must get out.
Richard Clark confirms this. First, Clark believes the administration wants bases in Iraq. Second, the president's Annapolis speech basically calls for a ten year diminished occupation of Iraq. The administration wants influence in the government and in the oil. Third, the administration has no idea what is really happening in Iraq. Fourth, as long as Americans remain, the insurgency will grow. The greatest force fueling the insurgency is American presence. In a recent Arab league meeting, the one fact that all factions - Sunni, Shia, etc agreed upon was that America did not belong in Iraq. Fifth, the longer we remain, the more attacks will be staged upon domestic US. Sixth, the Iraqi army is trained in and therefore cannot operate without American logistics. Seventh, the administration has made democracy a bad word in the Middle East. Anyone advocating democracy is regarded as advocating an American dominance. Clarke suggests the George Jr administration could have promoted democracy covertly. But instead they have overtly promoted democracy so as to associate democracy with an American occupation. Eight, the CIA wants out of the prisoner game. An insurgent prisoner only has useful information for a few months anyway. But since CIA has been forced to run covert prison camps, the CIA is promoting much of this 'American prison camps in East Europe' news so that the administration must let the CIA get out of the prisoner business.
You tell me where a solution is found in the president's speech? Those whose life has been about this stuff say the president's agenda is a formula for defeat. Richard Clarke, for example, suggests our best strategy is a complete withdrawal within 18 months.