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The spread is not there to indicate who the house is going to win. It's there to equally divide the bets 50/50 between the two teams. The closer to a 50/50 split the house gets the bigger the guarantee they aren't going to lose while maximizing profit. This line will sometimes move throughout the week to influence how many bets are on each team. Vegas has more football knowledge and stats than any of us could ever hope to; when the spread seems lopsided it is not because the odds makers are dumb, it's because they want the bets split. This gives good opportunity for some winning, as W.HI.P has shown.
I like to keep an eye towards divisional matchups. Except in cases of extremely good teams (like San Diego) the games are played closely. A large spread between two heated rivals of different talent levels is often closer than anticipated.
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