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Originally Posted by Jebediah
The spread is not there to indicate who the house is going to win. It's there to equally divide the bets 50/50 between the two teams. The closer to a 50/50 split the house gets the bigger the guarantee they aren't going to lose while maximizing profit. This line will sometimes move throughout the week to influence how many bets are on each team. Vegas has more football knowledge and stats than any of us could ever hope to; when the spread seems lopsided it is not because the odds makers are dumb, it's because they want the bets split. This gives good opportunity for some winning, as W.HI.P has shown.
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I've been corresponding these past few weeks with two of the biggest betting agencies in the world regarding the NFL spreads.
Employment is the topic of discussion.
I am aware that the spreads are used more of a guidance tool than anything else.
So yes, they are not as stupid as they seem.
Although they weren't that bright early on in the season either!
A lot of guessing, and it cost them, there is no doubt about that!
If it hadn't, I would not be in correspondence at the moment(Certainly nothing to do with Vegas).
I suppose I could write(I'd need an editor,lol), but why work against them for next season when I can work for them!
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I like to keep an eye towards divisional matchups. Except in cases of extremely good teams (like San Diego) the games are played closely. A large spread between two heated rivals of different talent levels is often closer than anticipated.
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Absolutely!!
I was kind of expecting a larger spread on the Jaguars-Titans rivalry, but no gift there!
This theory works in other sports as well, not so much with divisional matchups, but local rivalries.
The percentages of a smaller team beating or drawing with a stronger neighbour is overwhelming in almost all sports.