The Cellar - View Single Post - Perspective on the US from an expat working in China

lookout123 · 12-03-2007, 02:09 PM

i don't care to argue any of you points as there is some validity to each. i will, however, share a little thought that one of my analysts dropped on me a while back.

do you remember in 1998 and 1999 and everyone was convinced that the economy had changed and we were breaking new ground? profits and products didn't matter as much and ideas and potential? upward and onward was inevitable? do you remember how everyone was excited about the potential for careers and companies focussed exclusively on technology? Do you remember how much more excited and enthusiastic as tech jobs started paying more and more in the buildup to January 1st, 2000?

What happened on January 2nd? A lot of the enthrallment with that world and paradigm dissolved because reality had set back in. a new year had come and the world didn't end. tech jobs were just that - tech jobs. many of the guys who had uprooted their families and bet the farm on the potential of the field were devastated when suddenly they weren't so highly valued in the market place. the big important day had come and gone and it left us with only reality. guys who used to make $25/hour who then got $125/hour were suddenly back to $35/hour. companies folded. careers and families disrupted.

Anyway, there has been an awful lot of money flooding into chinese investments. institutional money. emerging markets funds. a lot of you in your 401K's. Look at the number of regional/sector funds and ETF's have popped up. China is full of growth, growth, growth. everything is getting prettier and prettier.

I wonder is there some reason that the Chinese government might want to polish the exterior? Is there some event set to take place in the near future? Is there some date down the road that is going to center the world's attention on China? Do you think all of the investment will continue well past such and important time period?

I can tell you this - and i don't bank on predictions, but i ca promise you that i will be watching the flow of institutional money in that region starting in March of '08.

12-03-2007, 02:09 PM	#6
lookout123 changed his status to single Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Right behind you. No, the other side. Posts: 10,308	i don't care to argue any of you points as there is some validity to each. i will, however, share a little thought that one of my analysts dropped on me a while back. do you remember in 1998 and 1999 and everyone was convinced that the economy had changed and we were breaking new ground? profits and products didn't matter as much and ideas and potential? upward and onward was inevitable? do you remember how everyone was excited about the potential for careers and companies focussed exclusively on technology? Do you remember how much more excited and enthusiastic as tech jobs started paying more and more in the buildup to January 1st, 2000? What happened on January 2nd? A lot of the enthrallment with that world and paradigm dissolved because reality had set back in. a new year had come and the world didn't end. tech jobs were just that - tech jobs. many of the guys who had uprooted their families and bet the farm on the potential of the field were devastated when suddenly they weren't so highly valued in the market place. the big important day had come and gone and it left us with only reality. guys who used to make $25/hour who then got $125/hour were suddenly back to $35/hour. companies folded. careers and families disrupted. Anyway, there has been an awful lot of money flooding into chinese investments. institutional money. emerging markets funds. a lot of you in your 401K's. Look at the number of regional/sector funds and ETF's have popped up. China is full of growth, growth, growth. everything is getting prettier and prettier. I wonder is there some reason that the Chinese government might want to polish the exterior? Is there some event set to take place in the near future? Is there some date down the road that is going to center the world's attention on China? Do you think all of the investment will continue well past such and important time period? I can tell you this - and i don't bank on predictions, but i ca promise you that i will be watching the flow of institutional money in that region starting in March of '08. __________________ Getting knocked down is no sin, it's not getting back up that's the sin