The Cellar - View Single Post

Pete · 05-25-2003, 09:06 AM

Now let me answer my own question. I think I like this one. if we just increase the scale, it seems much more obvious. We have 100 lottery tickets (and one is the winner). I choose one. The probability that one of the remaining 99 is the winner is 99/100. Then someone removes all but one of those 99 saying that they are all losers. Then it seems obvious that you'd want to switch. I don't have the exact math at my fingertips for this one but my intuition feels much better about it. sigh.

BTW here's where I found this.

05-25-2003, 09:06 AM	#2
Pete Resident President Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 81	Now let me answer my own question. I think I like this one. if we just increase the scale, it seems much more obvious. We have 100 lottery tickets (and one is the winner). I choose one. The probability that one of the remaining 99 is the winner is 99/100. Then someone removes all but one of those 99 saying that they are all losers. Then it seems obvious that you'd want to switch. I don't have the exact math at my fingertips for this one but my intuition feels much better about it. sigh. BTW here's where I found this.