Quote:
Originally posted by vsp
What I do not, and probably will never understand is how the second choice is not _independent_ from the first one. Yes, Monty has information that I do not as to which door has the prize -- but the mere fact that I do not have that information makes it irrelevant to my choosing process. I don't know whether Monty is trying to help me or screw me over by making his offer, and I have no way of finding out short of making a blind choice; all I _do_ know is that between my first choice and my second, the situation has changed and my options are different.
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Don't let the Monty-knows-something-I-don't issue trick you. The fact that he knows where the prize is only means that he will never accidentally open the door with the real prize when he's showing you one of the "other" doors.
I've seen several explanations that say something like "but Monty knows where the prize is, so he picks the other one." This is just worded poorly. He isn't trying to help you or screw you, he's just playing the game too, and it has nothing to do with the mathematical odds.