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Originally Posted by Undertoad
Feel free to put your own ellipisis up and make a prediction. It should be easy, since you believe the chain of events is so predictable.
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I wasn't making a prediction, I was showing the cause and effect of the situation. I have many possible predictions but not one that I believe will happen because I honestly have no idea.
This is the information I have:
- History of the situation
- Knowledge that many Gazans are supporting Hamas based on the situation and not necessary political ideals
- Knowledge that Hamas tends to see themselves as reactionary and the Gazans do as well
- Hamas and Fatah are not working with eachother
- Israel did not accomplish its objectives in Lebanon
- Israel is facing a different situation and have said to learn from their mistakes
So based on this knowledge, its reasonable to expect the following to occur. Lets first say that Israel does accomplish its objectives.
- Gaza will have lost its leadership and need a new one
- The blockade on Gaza will most likely go away
That can lead us to some diverse conclusions. It is possible that a well fed Gaza, assuming that happens, could change its views on Israel but I would say that is doubtful. It would be similar to seeing George Bush do something the liberal population agree with and see the liberal population change their views on him.
So then Gaza will need new leadership. Fatah is doubtful to regain control without force since one of Hamas objectives was to not be Fatah. That also means that since Fatah was seen as corrupt and not harsh enough on Israel, which makes it doubtful that the new leadership will be any different than Hamas. Remember, even if Israel do get rid of Gaza, they cannot get rid of the feelings held by the population. And also remember, most Gazans do not necessary support the ideals of Hamas but support them anyways.
That was only a limited amount of the possibilities but it can go either way. Those are the reasons I expect the situation to keep the same but only get more intense and not the other way around. It is possible that I am wrong as well. Only time can tell.
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Originally Posted by OnyxCougar
Actually, I can say this is Hamas' fault. Living conditions are terrible, food supplies are short and all the rest of that. However, there was another option.
That option was: not firing on Israel after the 6 month cease fire was over and saying, "See, we can be civilized people. Let's talk about sending in more food and making things better for the people we're supposed to be governing."
Instead, they fired rockets into Israel and acted all surprised when Israel decided enough is enough and spanked them. Hard. Then they go crying to the rest of the world about "poor us, they are killing our civilians". Should have thought of that before you launched the rockets, dumbass.
While it sucks to be a civilian in this situation, they are the ones that elected Hamas to rule there, in the midst of shouts about Death to Israel. They have placed themselves into this situation. They have made the choices to get themselves here. Now it's time to pay for those choices.
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I see a few holes in your logic.
- You assume you can control your ability to be "civilized" in harsh situations.
- You do not state why it was unreasonable for Gazans to elect Hamas.
Lets look at the economic crisis situation in the United States. For the United States, I want to show how quickly and strongly blame is thrown around. For Republicans, most blame the Democrats. For the Democrats, most blame Republicans. I'm assuming you think citizens of the United States are civilized, but as you can see, we are fully irrational when it comes to who is at fault at our own circumstances. Now, the situation in the United States is NOWHERE near as bad as the situation in Gaza. So what gives you any credibility to blame the Gazans? If the majority of Americans were starving, I think it would be very hard to believe that violence will not be introduced.
Second, lets look at the last few presidential elections. Many foreigners do not like the United States because of their presidents. George Bush is one of the most hated figures in the world right now so it would be easy to for foreigners to say that the United States should just not have elected Bush. But, looking at the past two elections, we can see that it was not that simple. Both Kerry and Gore were seen as inadequate and many were voting for one so the other would not win.
So back to the holes in logic I see.
- Do you have any credibility to show that you, or Americans in general, would react any differently to the situation they are presented in.
- You state that Gazans are at fault for electing Hamas but you do not give the reasons why Gazans elected Hamas. Please state them.
*Note, as I have said many times in this thread, I do not think Israel is at sole fault either.