A report came out by the International Crisis Group today. So we can sort some of the questionable aspects out.
A. The Ceasefire
- Six-month ceasefire began on June 19th, 2008
- The ceasefire was never strong and was destined to fail. Israel wanted a ceasefire while still blocking crossing with Gaza and Egypt and maintaining a blockade while Hamas wanted a ceasefire with no blockades on either Gaza or the crossing.
- Rockets were fired in Israel from Gaza in June but no action was taken. A separate movement claimed responsibility and said it was in response to two Palestinian deaths in West Bank and Hamas encouraged them to stop. Another rocket attack from Gaza into Israel was claimed by Fatah, an oppositional movement to Hamas. Later, more rockets were fired but no one claimed responsibility.
- On November 4th, Israeli troops, from Israeli Intelligence, crossed into Gaza using a secret tunnel made by Hamas to prevent a kidnapping of an Israeli soldier killing 6 Gazans.
- On December 13th, Israel said they would renew the ceasefire but Hamas was reluctant.
- On December 19th, ceasefire ended.
So it was in fact Israel who did actually break the ceasefire.
B. Why ceasefire was not renewed.
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Opening the routes to commerce was Hamas’s main goal in its cease-fire with Israel, just as ending the rocket fire was Israel’s central aim. But while rocket fire did go down drastically in the fall to 15 to 20 a month from hundreds a month, Israel said it would not permit trade to begin again because the rocket fire had not completely stopped and because Hamas continued to smuggle weapons from Egypt through desert tunnels. Hamas said this was a violation of the agreement, a sign of Israel’s intentions and cause for further rocket fire. On Wednesday [24 Dec 08], some 70 rockets hit Israel over 24 hours, in a distinct increase in intensity
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Quote:
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As the date approached, senior Hamas leaders increasingly made clear that, faced with the alternative between “starvation and fighting”, they would choose the latter, an unsubtle indication that they would intensify rocket fire in an attempt to force Israel to relax the siege.
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As shown in the first quote, both sides seemed to have not lived up to the agreements. The second quote shows why Hamas did not continue with the ceasefire.
So as we can see, both sides had fault on starting this conflict and both sides seem to be acting as the reactionary.
TheMercenary-
While an occupation of Gaza may happen, it will only happen because Israelis are forced too, not because of a plan.
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In the first days of the war, a former Israeli deputy foreign minister said, “the last thing the leadership wants is to be in a situation where it has to rule Gaza. If we don’t, what will replace Hamas? Abbas will find it difficult to take control on the back of Israeli bayonets”
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Even then...there is major skeptism
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What would the day after be? Would Israel reoccupy Gaza and rule a population made all the more hostile by the military assault that preceded it? Would it try to hand power over to a discredited PA, which quickly would be viewed as stooges? Which international forces would be willing to come in and take the reins over from us? And if the day after we leave 200,000 Gazans rally in support of Hamas, who do you think will come out the victor?
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