Quote:
Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce
We seem to have leveled off at least, and unemployment is the next hurtle as that's always the last to improve. But Europe is in deep shit. They bailed Greece out, but now Ireland is teetering, and if they go down Portugal will also, and likely Spain will follow.
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Europe is overall stable. The mostly smaller and fiscally irresponsible PIIGS did money games as MBAs are so often taught. Therefore their people must suffer harshly.
Major powers of Europe were fiscally responsible. Britain, France, Germany, Turkey, and a number of other larger European economic powers will continue to prosper. Albeit at diminished growth rates (especially those participating in the Euro) due to a few states that operated as irresponsible as George Jr.
Unemployment is not a hurtle. Once a recession ends, then unemployment numbers automatically and eventually decrease. How long? Depends on the type of recession. The worst recessions are created by governments and other fiscally irresponsible parties - the bean counters who are so corrupt as to think they create jobs and innovation. Therefore employment does not increase for something less than 2 years after the recession ends. The American recession appears to have ended at the beginning of 2010.
The next hurtle is a decreased American Living standard to pay for those 2000s money games. For example, we have not yet even started to address wealth reaped by inventing mortgaged. The richest took the money. And left the common man with homes worth less than he owes. We must now foreclose for pennies on the dollar that the richest 2% partied on. Pennies tomorrow for dollars 'printed' and played with by government and Wall Street in the 2000s.
Yes, the European PIIGS also will suffer. Major rule changes will be necessary to make Euro nations more accountable. So that books are not manipulated as George Jr also did.
The next hurtle for America is untangling massive debts incurred and not yet apparent on the books. Not just real estate. About $100 billion of military equipment has been trashed in foolish overseas adventures. Science destroyed by the $1 billion per seat Constellation and other science boondoggles. As Alan Simpson, et al note, a Medicaid prescription drug program (thank you George Jr) that has already overburdened and may dwarf other entitlement program. And that keeps prescription drug prices 40% higher.
Any robust recovery that normally occurs after other types of recessions is less likely after this recession. Other problems also must be paid for by sacrificing the American Standards of Living. That is how economics works. It takes revenge four, ten and twenty years after money games create fictious wealth. The common man will pay for the past wealth of Bernie Madoff and other fiscally irresponsible players who were all but encouraged to rape America. What Americans and Europeans pay when their governments and financial establishments screw the nation to enrich the privileged few.
The next hurtle: how diminished will the American Living Standard fall to pay for George Jr's 2000s - including Mission Accomplished. Some of those bills are just starting to appear on spread sheets.
American incomes dropped 2% during George Jr's reign. Will the 2010s see a positive or negative Std of Living? We don't know. We are still learning how much damage was created in the 2000s.