New Draft?

[richlevy]

From here

Peace churches plan alternatives to military draft

The government stresses it has no plans for one - but urges pacifists to be ready.

Leaders of the peace churches, which have their roots in Pennsylvania, say that what they may need to do now is prepare in-house programs in which their young men might perform two years of required civilian public service in exchange for not having to go into the military.

The draft ended in 1973. But the Selective Service System, which is charged with maintaining machinery for a draft, is encouraging the peace churches to make contingency plans.

"We do encourage it," said Cassandra Costley, who was appointed last year as director of a new alternative-service division within Selective Service.

"It's not because we expect there is going to be a draft in the next year - or the next five years," Costley said from her office in Rosslyn, Va. "But our mandate is that we be prepared."

[Undertoad]

It's been a year and two months since you put the probability at 25% for 5 years

[richlevy]

Originally Posted by Undertoad

It's been a year and two months since you put the probability at 25% for 5 years

And I said

This of course assumes a consistent enlistment/reenlistment rate. With tours in Iraq being extended beyond the promised 12 months, and the understanding that signing up for military service probably means signing up for a year in Iraq, this might become an issue.

Re-enlistment is down, and worse than I expected.

Last April, the Army was making its goals. Ok, this was according to an article in the Washington Times, but even they couldn't cook the numbers.

"This tends to rebut armchair critics who said the sky is falling and the vultures are circling and the Army is gong to lose all its troops," said Lt. Col. Franklin Childress, an Army spokesman at the Pentagon. "This is not true. The soldiers get it."
The Army also met its recruiting goal of 73,800 inductees last fiscal year, and 34,000 for the first six months of this fiscal year, which began Oct. 1.

I have been reading article about declining recruitment for the past few months now.

This article sums up the current situation.

Next year could be the toughest for recruiting since the all-volunteer Army began in 1973, Maj. Gen. Rochelle predicts. "It's comparable to having no savings account," added RAND Corp specialist Beth Asch. "They'll be living month to month." The hiring of poorly educated, unqualified troops will likely force a critical drop in the capabilities, training and readiness of the modern military, experts predict.

"America faces a choice," Paul Glastris and former Army captain Phil Carter wrote in the Washington Monthly in March. "It can be the world's superpower, or it can maintain the all-volunteer military, but it probably can't do both."

The idea of not having a draft may go down in history as being the biggest campaign lie that Bush told.

From 2004 Presidential Debate transcript

FARLEY: Mr. President, since we continue to police the world, how do you intend to maintain our military presence without reinstituting a draft?

BUSH: Yes, that's a great question. Thanks.

I hear there's rumors on the Internets (sic) that we're going to have a draft. We're not going to have a draft, period. The all- volunteer army works. It works particularly when we pay our troops well. It works when we make sure they've got housing, like we have done in the last military budgets.

An all-volunteer army is best suited to fight the new wars of the 21st century, which is to be specialized and to find these people as they hide around the world.

(Bush talks about redeployment and new technologies)

Now, forget all this talk about a draft. We're not going to have a draft so long as I am the president.

Of course it's always possible that we can stick it out for another three years and dump the problem on the next President, so President Bush might be technically correct in that the draft was not instituted on his watch.

[Griff]

Bush probably won't do it. He has a consistantly unrealistic view of what is happening over there. The real danger is someone like Joe Biden getting elected. He has a better understanding of the situation and is willing to go to the next level on troop comittment.

[Undertoad]

booga booga booga!

[Griff]

[smoothmoniker]

I voted 100% because I know that later tonight, I'm going to have a new draft.

Probably a Newcastle, maybe Guiness.

[headsplice]

Define 'draft.' I voted 100% b/c I figure there will be some sort of mandatory government service, though not necessarily military service (like the CCC in the Depression, but mandatory).

[Troubleshooter]

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/paynte...paynter08.html

When Marine recruiters go way beyond the call

By SUSAN PAYNTER
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER COLUMNIST

For mom Marcia Cobb and her teenage son Axel, the white letters USMC on their caller ID soon spelled, "Don't answer the phone!"

Marine recruiters began a relentless barrage of calls to Axel as soon as the mellow, compliant Sedro-Woolley High School grad had cut his 17th birthday cake. And soon it was nearly impossible to get the seekers of a few good men off the line.

With early and late calls ringing in their ears, Marcia tried using call blocking. And that's when she learned her first hard lesson. You can't block calls from the government, her server said. So, after pleas to "Please stop calling" went unanswered, the family's "do not answer" order ensued.

But warnings and liquid crystal lettering can fade. So, two weeks ago when Marcia was cooking dinner Axel goofed and answered the call. And, faster than you can say "semper fi," an odyssey kicked into action that illustrates just how desperate some of the recruiters we've read about really are to fill severely sagging quotas.

Let what we learned serve as a warning to other moms, dads and teens, the Cobbs now say. Even if your kids actually may want to join the military, if they hope to do it on their own terms, after a deep breath and due consideration, repeat these words after them: "No," "Not now" and "Back off!"

"I've been trained to be pretty friendly. I guess you might even say I'm kind of passive," Axel told me last week, just after his mother and older sister had tracked him to a Seattle testing center and sprung him on a ruse.

The next step of Axel's misadventure came when he heard about a cool "chin-ups" contest in Bellingham, where the prize was a free Xbox. The now 18-year-old Skagit Valley Community College student dragged his tail feathers home uncharacteristically late that night. And, in the morning, Marcia learned the Marines had hosted the event and "then had him out all night, drilling him to join."

A single mom with a meager income, Marcia raised her kids on the farm where, until recently, she grew salad greens for restaurants.

Axel's father, a Marine Corps vet who served in Vietnam, died when Axel was 4.

Clearly the recruiters knew all that and more.

"You don't want to be a burden to your mom," they told him. "Be a man." "Make your father proud." Never mind that, because of his own experience in the service, Marcia says enlistment for his son is the last thing Axel's dad would have wanted.

The next weekend, when Marcia went to Seattle for the Folklife Festival and Axel was home alone, two recruiters showed up at the door.

Axel repeated the family mantra, but he was feeling frazzled and worn down by then. The sergeant was friendly but, at the same time, aggressively insistent. This time, when Axel said, "Not interested," the sarge turned surly, snapping, "You're making a big (bleeping) mistake!"

Next thing Axel knew, the same sergeant and another recruiter showed up at the LaConner Brewing Co., the restaurant where Axel works. And before Axel, an older cousin and other co-workers knew or understood what was happening, Axel was whisked away in a car.

"They said we were going somewhere but I didn't know we were going all the way to Seattle," Axel said.

Just a few tests. And so many free opportunities, the recruiters told him.

He could pursue his love of chemistry. He could serve anywhere he chose and leave any time he wanted on an "apathy discharge" if he didn't like it. And he wouldn't have to go to Iraq if he didn't want to.

At about 3:30 in the morning, Alex was awakened in the motel and fed a little something. Twelve hours later, without further sleep or food, he had taken a battery of tests and signed a lot of papers he hadn't gotten a chance to read. "Just formalities," he was told. "Sign here. And here. Nothing to worry about."

By then Marcia had "freaked out."

She went to the Burlington recruiting center where the door was open but no one was home. So she grabbed all the cards and numbers she could find, including the address of the Seattle-area testing center.

Then, with her grown daughter in tow, she high-tailed it south, frantically phoning Axel whose cell phone had been confiscated "so he wouldn't be distracted during tests."

Axel's grandfather was in the hospital dying, she told the people at the desk. He needed to come home right away. She would have said just about anything.

But, even after being told her son would be brought right out, her daughter spied him being taken down a separate hall and into another room. So she dashed down the hall and grabbed him by the arm.

"They were telling me I needed to 'be a man' and stand up to my family," Axel said.

What he needed, it turned out, was a lawyer.

Five minutes and $250 after an attorney called the recruiters, Axel's signed papers and his cell phone were in the mail.

My request to speak with the sergeant who recruited Axel and with the Burlington office about recruitment procedures went unanswered.

And so should your phone, Marcia Cobb advised. Take your own sweet time. Keep your own counsel. And, if you see USMC on caller ID, remember what answering the call could mean.

[russotto]

The draft talk is just being stirred around to try to get people up in arms against the Administration and Republicans in general.

[Troubleshooter]

Originally Posted by russotto

The draft talk is just being stirred around to try to get people up in arms against the Administration and Republicans in general.

You say that like it's a bad thing, or not something that needs to be done. Just replace 'republican' with a wildcard and you're good to go.

[Happy Monkey]

Something has to happen to react to the lower enlistment, the lower reenlistment, and the higher casualties of a protracted war with no definable end. That something is either a) a pullout from Iraq, b) a sea change in volunteer enlistments, or c) a draft.

[Troubleshooter]

I think a draft is much less likely now than say twenty years ago because the administration, any current administration, has done so much damage to its credibility that people just can't get behind the person asking them to risk their lives.

The country has shifted into a more decadent frame of mind. I don't mean that in a necessarily negative way, but just to say that people have shifted more to a self focused frame of mind than an American frame of mind. It's hard to relate to the people who govern us any more.

[lookout123]

Re-enlistment is down, and worse than I expected.

something to keep in mind in the cycle of over/under goals on enlistments is the general strength of the economy and influences like attacks on the nation.

i heard on Air America last week that this year is likely to be the first year that the army will miss recruiting goals. the second part of the statement was left off. it will be the first year since 1999 that they will miss goals.

it is an open secret that enlistments and retention ebb and flow with the economy. when the economy is cooking there are many more exciting and financially lucrative ideas floating around the head of the average 17-22 year old. when the economy cools off, enlistment numbers tend to increase because it is a steady job, with excellent benefits and money for college.

when you add in an attack upon the nation to get the blood flowing, you figure the rest out.

enlistment goals are based upon projected needs - expected retention ratios. when the economy is slow, more people stay in for the security of a known job. when the economy is hot they look for every way to get out early. the economy is picking up and when you add in the hardship of repeated deployments, it is pretty easy to understand why enlistment goals go up.

is a draft utterly impossible? no - nothing is impossible. it is extremely unlikely though for a couple of reasons. the military has seen lean times in the recruiting world before, it is just a cycle. the senior leadership entered the military in a time of draftees - they know the damage it did to the military. most of them spent half their careers fighting the apathy and incompetence unleashed by the draft. they will fight tooth and nail to prevent that from happening to their military again.

[richlevy]

Originally Posted by lookout123

is a draft utterly impossible? no - nothing is impossible. it is extremely unlikely though for a couple of reasons. the military has seen lean times in the recruiting world before, it is just a cycle.

We have never seen the lean times with over 160,000 troops deployed, possibly for years. The National Guard is being deployed in combat for the first time since WWII. Recruitment is down at the same time Congress is talking about increasing the size of the military.

Unless the shooting, stops, I don't think we will be able to maintain a volunteer military. We have never fought a major war in the 20th century with a volunteer military.