Immigration - Demography vs. Border Control

[piercehawkeye45]

http://www.twincities.com/opinion/ci_5616125

Originally Posted by "Pioneer Press/Opinion

SHANNON O'NEIL

Article Last Updated: 04/07/2007 03:15:19 AM CDT


As many in Congress, in the media and in homes across the U.S. debate the best way to stem the flow of undocumented workers across the Rio Grande, they don't seem to be aware that this perceived problem is becoming increasingly irrelevant. In fact, the immigration concern of the future could well be how to entice Mexicans and other Latin-Americans to cross into the U.S. in the numbers we need.

Mexico is undergoing a demographic transition. According to the Mexican census bureau, long gone are the days of families with six, seven or 10 kids. Instead, Mexican women average 2.2 births - only slightly above the average 2.1 births that occur in the United States and that are considered the level needed to maintain a stable population over time. Life expectancy in Mexico has increased to 75 years, compared to 77 in the United States. With fewer births and longer lives, by 2050, Mexico will become as old as the United States. In short, Mexico is about to age dramatically.

In the past 10 years, nearly 5 million Mexicans have come to the U.S. They've done many jobs, especially agricultural and construction work, keeping our food prices low and enabling the recent housing boom. The "pull" of plentiful U.S. jobs and higher salaries has been an important factor in this migration, but so has the "push" of Mexico's fast-growing, economically active population, combined with weak job creation.

This situation is about to change. Job growth is a key component of President Felipe Calderon's agenda in Mexico. But even without faster job creation there, migration pressure - the "push" - will ease. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the economically active population - which grew by more than 1 million new members each year during the 1990s - now adds just 500,000 annually. Over the next 10 years that means about 5 million fewer new workers compared to the previous decade - a number that's roughly equal to the population of undocumented Mexican immigrants in the United States.
This suggests that demography might accomplish what border enforcement has not. In the next decade, the tide of northbound Mexican labor likely will recede.

At the same time, the United States is on the brink of its own massive demographic change.

The first baby boomers are becoming eligible for Social Security benefits, and over the next 25 years, many will retire. The next generation, Generation X, with 15 million fewer members, doesn't have the critical mass to fill their shoes, much less new job openings. The generation after that, Generation Y - now ranging in age from babies to college students - is larger, so it will partly alleviate the labor crunch. But Gen Y workers are also likely to follow form and be better educated than their elders, which will push them toward high-skill careers. Immigrants still will be needed if the U.S. economy is to continue growing.

The immigration policy debate needs to grapple with these future trends. The current demographic situation - a high supply of Mexican migrants and high demand for them from U.S. employers - inexorably reflects the laws of supply and demand. Sealing our borders won't change that now or help us adjust to changing demographics and labor markets in the future.

Looking forward, the immigration system should balance the pressures of supply and demand, not flout them. It must provide a flexible and legal valve on the labor flow, one that will attract workers who soon will find that staying home isn't a bad economic choice.

This would include an efficient guest-worker program that rises and falls with labor needs and also provides a potential path to citizenship. It includes a dignified and fair process through which undocumented workers who are here now could be legitimized, and it includes long-term planning with Mexico (and other Latin-American nations).

This practical strategy is the only approach to immigration reform that enhances the security of our international borders now and in the long term. It positions the U.S. for continued growth. And it goes far beyond merely reacting to the immediate situation with ineffective and ultimately counterproductive barriers.

Shannon O'Neil, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, teaches in the political science department at Columbia University and is working on a book about Mexico-U.S. relations. She wrote this piece for the Los Angeles Times.

Very good opinion paper. I am not a big fan of the "leave it alone, the problem will solve itself" but Shannon O'Neil brings up some very good point.

• Mexico's demographic change
• Our need for labor when the Baby Boomers retire

[TheMercenary]

"This suggests that demography might accomplish what border enforcement has not. In the next decade, the tide of northbound Mexican labor likely will recede. " I don't buy this and there is no real proof that it will. Ten years is a long time, no one, esp Ms. O'Neil knows what is going to happen next year, needless to say over the next ten years.

"This would include an efficient guest-worker program that rises and falls with labor needs and also provides a potential path to citizenship." I would agree with part A, but there is no need to promise citizenship, they should remain guest workers.

[DanaC]

would agree with part A, but there is no need to promise citizenship, they should remain guest workers.

Why? Why wouldn't you want them as citizens?

[TheMercenary]

Originally Posted by DanaC

Why? Why wouldn't you want them as citizens?

I don't think we need more citizens if we have an effective guest worker program. It is not needed that they become citizens. We need to stem the tide not encourage it.

[DanaC]

What, d'ye think your going to run out of room?

[piercehawkeye45]

The second point brings us to the fact that we will need more citizens to support your old ass Merc. If you want to keep getting social security you better be inviting immigrants over.

[DanaC]

Merc's fine with inviting them over as guest-workers....he just doesn't want them to share in the benefits of citizenship whilst they're over... I mean, God....if America started letting immigrants in and then letting them become citizens where would she be? America didn't get where it is today by letti....oh hang on, yes it did.

[TheMercenary]

Originally Posted by DanaC

What, d'ye think your going to run out of room?

Not at all but it is not unlimited. Who says we should have to take in the worlds masses??? Screw that. You guys take them. Why don't you let an unlimited number of the Eastern Europeans and Arabs to move to your country? You know that is a huge issue in the UK right now. Why don't you just open your doors to them on an unlimited basis?

[TheMercenary]

Originally Posted by DanaC

Merc's fine with inviting them over as guest-workers....he just doesn't want them to share in the benefits of citizenship whilst they're over... I mean, God....if America started letting immigrants in and then letting them become citizens where would she be? America didn't get where it is today by letti....oh hang on, yes it did.

So what? Don't get all frigging indignant about it. There is an end to all resources. I don't really care how we got our start, that was something for the history books. We are talking about our future and survival as a republic and a nation.

[DanaC]

Actually, I would be a lot less strict about it than we currently are. Most of what we read about it is hype. The numbers don't really stack up to a mountain of panic. Britain is one of the hardest places to gain asylum in and isn't so easy to get in on other terms either. We hear all about the Eastern European workers coming to Britain, we hear significantly less about those who return home after a few months, disillusioned by the fact that England is cold, rainy and pretty unfriendly to foreigners.

Yes, I know it's a huge issue right now. That's because it has been blown out of all proportion by newspapers selling copy by outrage and politicians racing to gain the votes of Mr and Mrs Middle England.

Incidentally, nobody talked about you having to take the world's masses. The article mentioned guest worker programmes as a possible route to citizenship, not a promise as you then characterised it.

[DanaC]

We are talking about our future and survival as a republic and a nation.

I think you'll find, so is that article.

[DanaC]

So what? Don't get all frigging indignant about it.

he said indignantly....

[TheMercenary]

Originally Posted by DanaC

Actually, I would be a lot less strict about it than we currently are. Most of what we read about it is hype. The numbers don't really stack up to a mountain of panic. Britain is one of the hardest places to gain asylum in and isn't so easy to get in on other terms either. We hear all about the Eastern European workers coming to Britain, we hear significantly less about those who return home after a few months, disillusioned by the fact that England is cold, rainy and pretty unfriendly to foreigners.

Yes, I know it's a huge issue right now. That's because it has been blown out of all proportion by newspapers selling copy by outrage and politicians racing to gain the votes of Mr and Mrs Middle England.

Incidentally, nobody talked about you having to take the world's masses. The article mentioned guest worker programmes as a possible route to citizenship, not a promise as you then characterised it.

If your country is one of that hardest to get into, why shouldn't we get a bit smarter and do the same. Our lax laws and immigration policy are a big problem for us. It is a drain on our social systems which we cannot at this time care appropriately for our own CITIZENS. Out Constitution applies to our citizens, not to every tom, dick, and harry that comes here under false pretenses and in an illegal manner. A practical approach is to develop a well thought out guest worker program for the people we need to do the work required. We don't need 14 family members here illegally when maybe only a few are actually working. And people bitch about not having appropriat health care.

[TheMercenary]

Originally Posted by DanaC

I think you'll find, so is that article.

I disagree.

[TheMercenary]

Originally Posted by DanaC

he said indignantly....

Because you don't have to deal with the issue. You get to sit across the pond and throw stones at our policy and our problems. Look in the mirror.