Vaccination & epidemic

[Undertoad]

OK let's use an example.

In an avalanche, the cause is the slow buildup of unstable snow on a height, and the trigger is a relatively small event - the falling of a branch, the schuss of a skier - that finally brings all that instability to bear, and the event happens.

It is you who has consistently denied the possibility

That wasn't what we were talking about, but fine. I don't deny anything. I merely ask for proof of a causal relationship. I don't deny, I challenge. They are different. I can give you more examples if you require.

[Clodfobble]

Originally Posted by Undertoad

In an avalanche, the cause is the slow buildup of unstable snow on a height, and the trigger is a relatively small event - the falling of a branch, the schuss of a skier - that finally brings all that instability to bear, and the event happens.

Absolutely. And when it has been determined that a particular mountain has a large buildup of snow, then the conditions are declared unsafe... and they don't allow skiers on that mountain, because they might trigger the avalanche.

Just because the trigger is small, or a common occurrence on all the other mountains that don't have a buildup of snow, doesn't mean the avalanche is inevitable. We can still prevent it in most cases.

[monster]

pwnd.

[glatt]

Originally Posted by Clodfobble

Your friends should look into the book Saving Sammy, though they've probably heard of it already if they've gotten far enough in the process to locate a doctor who diagnoses and treats PANDAS. There's also a very active PANDAS Yahoo group.

Thank you for all your advice, Clodfobble. I'm going to pass these tips along. I think it's huge that they already did so much research themselves and found a doctor. But I guess having a kid ask to die will do that to a parent.

[Lamplighter]

Jenny McCarthy, where are you now ?

This year, the U.K. has had more than 1,200 cases of measles,
after a record number of nearly 2,000 cases last year.
The country once recorded only several dozen cases every year.
It now ranks second in Europe, behind only Romania.


Public Health England
3/13

The age distribution of the cases in the first quarter of 2013 shows a peak in the 10-14 year old age group
with an apparent shift in age, when compared to the previous 4 years <snip>

NY Times
By THE EDITORIAL BOARD
May 22, 2013
Aftermath of an Unfounded Vaccine Scare

Britain is experiencing serious outbreaks of measles that look to be
a delayed consequence of a failure to vaccinate infants and young children more than a decade ago.
A prime cause of that failure was ill-founded fears among parents that
a widely used vaccine to combat measles, mumps and rubella might cause autism.
Because they shunned the vaccine, their children, now in their teens, are suffering the consequences.

Those fears had been fanned by Dr. Andrew Wakefield,
a British researcher, who claimed to have found a link between the vaccine,
gastrointestinal problems found in many autistic children and autism itself.
His work was subsequently discredited, and the BMJ, a British medical journal,
concluded that flaws in his scientific study were not honest mistakes but an “elaborate fraud.”

Even so, he has stalwart defenders who ignore the overwhelming consensus
of vaccine and infectious disease experts that the vaccine is safe and effective
and not a cause of autism.

It has a proven record of safety when given to hundreds of millions of people around the world.
<snip>
The most serious outbreaks this year have been in Wales,
where there are also signs that mumps may be increasing.

A vaccination campaign aimed mostly at young people ages 10 to 16
is now trying to fill a gap that should never have occurred.<snip>

[Clodfobble]

How incredible would it be, if we could live in a utopia where no one ever got sick with anything? This is surely something we should strive for.

[regular.joe]

Ask for the moon too.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Tapatalk 2

[Clodfobble]

That's not necessary; they have a shot now that is just as good as getting the real moon.

[DanaC]

Originally Posted by Clodfobble

How incredible would it be, if we could live in a utopia where no one ever got sick with anything? This is surely something we should strive for.

I don't get this comment at all.

We've gone from measuring measles and the like in the tens and now we're measuring in the thousands. Diseases that used to wipe out or cripple large numbers of children were almost completely taken out of the picture and now are back with a vengeance.

We've moved backwards.

[Clodfobble]

If the only datapoint being considered is new cases of some form of measles, then yes, we've gone backward. That datapoint, however, says nothing about why this might be occurring.

How many of the new cases, for example, are Atypical Measles Syndrome, a more virulent and damaging form of the disease that showed up shortly after mass measles vaccination, and only occurs in vaccinated individuals? What other diseases might be on the rise as a result of artifically tampering with our bodies' systems? Nothing we do operates in a vacuum, and you can't limit assessment of a situation to a single datapoint.

[jimhelm]

[Lamplighter]

Originally Posted by Clodfobble

If the only datapoint being considered
is new cases of some form of measles, then yes, we've gone backward.
That datapoint, however, says nothing about why this might be occurring.
<snip>
Nothing we do operates in a vacuum, and you can't limit assessment
of a situation to a single datapoint.

It's not at all just a single data point... here is a layman-summary of CDC reports for US.

webmd.com
April 19, 2012

Measles Cases, Outbreaks Quadruple in 2011
Unvaccinated Children, Teens at Risk

Measles cases are spiking sharply in the U.S., the CDC reported today.

The 222 cases and 17 outbreaks seen in 2011 are nearly four times
the median of 60 cases and four outbreaks per year seen over the last decade.
A third of patients were hospitalized.

The surge in cases is largely due to people who have not been vaccinated
with the measles/mumps/rubella (MMR) vaccine, the CDC says.
A significant percentage of these people are children and teens
whose parents exempted them from school vaccination requirements.

"Unvaccinated people put themselves and others at risk
-- particularly infants too young to be vaccinated,
who can have the most severe complications,"
Anne Schuchat, MD, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases,
said at a news conference held to announce the new report.
<snip>
Vaccine refusal is more common in Europe than in the U.S.
The result: more than 37,000 measles cases in Europe last year.
Five countries account for 90% of the cases: France, Italy, Romania, Spain, and Germany.

Nine out of 10 U.S. measles cases could be linked either to a U.S. resident
who was infected in a foreign country or to foreign visitors to the U.S.
Many of these travelers imported measles from Europe.

Regarding "atypical measles", there were a few (<50) cases reported in 1981
among children immunized 10-15 yrs previously (~1965) with an early form of vaccine.
In my searches for "atypical measles" I so far have found no additional reports
of that "disease" associated with current CDC recommendations for MMR vaccine.

[Clodfobble]

Originally Posted by Lamplighter

It's not at all just a single data point...

You misunderstand. I'm not suggesting there is only one source for this data. I'm agreeing that measles cases are universally on the rise in Western nations. That is the datapoint.

What I'm not conceding is the cause of the rise, whether it's actually a bad thing at all, or whether society's future course of action should continue to be the same as it has been in the past. To draw those conclusions would require other datapoints.


We kill the wolves, and the wolves' prey take over the ecosystem. We try to wipe out one disease, and create a niche for a mutation to thrive that is far worse than its predecessor. We try to protect weaker members of our society, and their weaker genes just get passed on and amplified. Every time we try to outsmart nature, we lose.

[Happy Monkey]

No, outsmarting nature is the defining charactaristic of humanity. If we lost every time, we wouldn't exist.

We don't win every time, but the accumulated wins we've got are what separate us from other animals.

[piercehawkeye45]

Originally Posted by Clodfobble

We kill the wolves, and the wolves' prey take over the ecosystem. We try to wipe out one disease, and create a niche for a mutation to thrive that is far worse than its predecessor. We try to protect weaker members of our society, and their weaker genes just get passed on and amplified. Every time we try to outsmart nature, we lose.

I do agree that our world is an extremely complex place and that unthinkable long-term consequences to our current actions will always occur (how the hell did the harassment of a street vendor in Tunisia cause a civil war in Syria??), but this does not mean that our world is dictated by some global “karma”. In certain situations, yes, from climate change to antibiotics, causing a shift in equilibrium can potentially result in grave long-term consequences. However, this does not mean that we cannot find a future solution to the problem and this does not mean that we should always sacrifice our current generation to spare a possible worst case scenario for future generations (this is obviously a very gray area).

Either way, even though the mass killing of many viruses can speed up the evolution process and potentially lead to a more dangerous virus, I would rather take our chances. First, there is no guarantee that a “supervirus” will emerge and second, there is a good chance we will be able to fight off any new virus, especially if nanotechnology pulls through. No one can predict the future or determine whether final outcomes will be positive or negative but unless there is strong evidence suggesting otherwise, I would rather adapt to new problems than change course based on speculation.