We've been Learning about Birth'n Hurricanes

[tw]

Of those two 31 Aug storms, the second one also intensified to become Gordon. As the hurricane season winds down (and most storms past across Central America to become something like 12 Eastern Pacific tropical storms), we have this ninth Atlantic storm and an unusual comment from an NHC forecaster:

I DID NOT MAKE ISAAC A HURRICANE BECAUSE THE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE CENTER IS NOT VERY STRONG AT THE TIME OF THIS ADVISORY...BUT I WAS VERY TEMPTED. A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE CYCLONE SHOWED A FEW VECTORS OF 60 KNOTS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...I AM NOT SURE IF THESE VECTOR ARE REPRESENTATIVE OR NOT OF THE INTENSITY OF ISAAC...SINCE THERE IS ALWAYS A LOT OF GOOD DEBATE ABOUT THE SUBJECT AMONG THE QUIKSCAT EXPERTS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE ONLY 5 KNOTS ABOVE THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AND I AM NOT GOING TO ARGUE OVER 5 KNOTS. SO LET'S USE THE VECTORS AND INCREASE THE WINDS TO 60 KNOTS. UNANIMOUSLY...ALL INTENSITY MODELS BRING ISAAC TO HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE OCEAN COOLS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.