Betting tips

[WabUfvot5]

The spread is not there to indicate who the house is going to win. It's there to equally divide the bets 50/50 between the two teams. The closer to a 50/50 split the house gets the bigger the guarantee they aren't going to lose while maximizing profit. This line will sometimes move throughout the week to influence how many bets are on each team. Vegas has more football knowledge and stats than any of us could ever hope to; when the spread seems lopsided it is not because the odds makers are dumb, it's because they want the bets split. This gives good opportunity for some winning, as W.HI.P has shown.

I like to keep an eye towards divisional matchups. Except in cases of extremely good teams (like San Diego) the games are played closely. A large spread between two heated rivals of different talent levels is often closer than anticipated.

[W.HI.P]

Originally Posted by Jebediah

The spread is not there to indicate who the house is going to win. It's there to equally divide the bets 50/50 between the two teams. The closer to a 50/50 split the house gets the bigger the guarantee they aren't going to lose while maximizing profit. This line will sometimes move throughout the week to influence how many bets are on each team. Vegas has more football knowledge and stats than any of us could ever hope to; when the spread seems lopsided it is not because the odds makers are dumb, it's because they want the bets split. This gives good opportunity for some winning, as W.HI.P has shown.

I've been corresponding these past few weeks with two of the biggest betting agencies in the world regarding the NFL spreads.
Employment is the topic of discussion.
I am aware that the spreads are used more of a guidance tool than anything else.
So yes, they are not as stupid as they seem.
Although they weren't that bright early on in the season either!
A lot of guessing, and it cost them, there is no doubt about that!
If it hadn't, I would not be in correspondence at the moment(Certainly nothing to do with Vegas).
I suppose I could write(I'd need an editor,lol), but why work against them for next season when I can work for them!

I like to keep an eye towards divisional matchups. Except in cases of extremely good teams (like San Diego) the games are played closely. A large spread between two heated rivals of different talent levels is often closer than anticipated.

Absolutely!!
I was kind of expecting a larger spread on the Jaguars-Titans rivalry, but no gift there!

This theory works in other sports as well, not so much with divisional matchups, but local rivalries.
The percentages of a smaller team beating or drawing with a stronger neighbour is overwhelming in almost all sports.

[WabUfvot5]

If you work for them you can still bet with other agencies

So when you bet what are you going for? Parlays? I was looking at moneyline but unless I'm mistaken with the moneyline at 110 for a winning team you'd have to pick the winner 90% of the time to even break even. That's pretty daunting in the era of parity where any team can win any game. I'm not willing to do that until I compile some stats on how often I can cherrypick select matchups and how often there is an upset in those games.

Thanks for this thread. You've managed to spur me into retooling my picks spreadsheet for next year to factor in the odds and see if there is an area I can excel (bad pun) at.

PostScriptium: Do you happen to keep (or know a place for) any statistics on things like divisional matchups or home field advantage?

[W.HI.P]

Originally Posted by Jebediah

If you work for them you can still bet with other agencies

So when you bet what are you going for? Parlays? I was looking at moneyline but unless I'm mistaken with the moneyline at 110 for a winning team you'd have to pick the winner 90% of the time to even break even. That's pretty daunting in the era of parity where any team can win any game. I'm not willing to do that until I compile some stats on how often I can cherrypick select matchups and how often there is an upset in those games.

I chose to bet defencivly.
First of all I put 3 matchups on each bet, each bet pays 7 times your money.
I like to chose 7-8 games and bet them amongst each other in bets of 3's.
in the case of 7 games, its 35 bets, for 8 games, its 56.
This gives me the ease to lose a few matches and still have a hell of a pay day.
The least Pay on any even nfl spread game is 170, 110 is simply not logical unless the opposing bet is at 350. I chose not to go to those edges, but just meet it at its leveled spread with even money on both sides.
with single bets 2 out of 3 will give you a nice profit when the wager is respectful.

Thanks for this thread. You've managed to spur me into retooling my picks spreadsheet for next year to factor in the odds and see if there is an area I can excel (bad pun) at.

Your welcome, it is my pleasure.

PostScriptium: Do you happen to keep (or know a place for) any statistics on things like divisional matchups or home field advantage?

I have this mental thing where i can store vast amounts of information, but if i need to see anything regarding NFL stats, i go straight to Yahoo's Sports page as it is accurate and has an easy access method to info.

[W.HI.P]

Latest Results......

San Fransisco 49ers 24-14 Seattle Seahawks(-9,5) ....WIN
Carolina Panthers 3-37 Pitchberg Steelers(-2,5) ....Loss
New York Jets 26-13 Minnesota Vikings(-3,0) ....WIN
Washington Redskins 16-10 New Orlean Saints(-10,5) ....WIN
Denver Broncos(-3,0) 37-20 Arizona Cardinals ....WIN

[Griff]

Pittsburgh decided to get serious just a little too late...

[W.HI.P]

Originally Posted by Griff

Pittsburgh decided to get serious just a little too late...

Nah ....i don't see it like that at all.
Teams go through a hill...lets rewind a few years back ....look at what the Raiders were, and since have slid down the hill.
The steelers are on their way down ...as i said at the start of the year, a .500 team or below this year and next year, below .300.
next to come are the Patriots, they will start there slide down next year when they fail to win this division, and obviously miss the playoffs, and the year after that, a guarenteed 4th place.

It's not all Pittsburgh; Carolina has been doing terrible. There is no balance to their offensive scheme.

Thats a more realistic view, and you know, the panthers were just as one dimensional last year as they are this year, I couldn't believe my eyes last year when they progressed within the playoffs, they simply didn't seem worthy to me.

How about them Eagels!!! Just take a second to imagine how the Eagels would look right about now with Donovan healthy!
The Bears are lucky that we can't threaten them!

[WabUfvot5]

It's not all Pittsburgh; Carolina has been doing terrible. There is no balance to their offensive scheme.

[Undertoad]

Dawk was a monster out there. I love that guy. Darwin Walker found some game. The O-line had a huge day.

[W.HI.P]

Originally Posted by Undertoad

Dawk was a monster out there. I love that guy. Darwin Walker found some game. The O-line had a huge day.

Absolutely, I love our defence, can you believe that were with 1 foot in the playoffs? You must have been really excited on Sunday, i'm sure you watched it.
This was our superbowl year! We could have won it.
Right now we can simply live the dream, no matter how false it really is.
I'm not negative by nature, I'm just tryna ground myself and be realistic.
I mean the Eagels without Donovan, is sorta like the Bears without Brian.
Still great teams, but heavy underdogs for the Superbowl.
Our team has surpassed my expectaion already since the injury.
What do you think Undertoad? How far will we go?

[Undertoad]

Well, you talk about the hills and valleys across seasons, what amazes me is the hills and valleys during the season. It seems so rare for a team to carry across all 16 games with the same fire and personality, never mind just the same look, the same playbook. At the beginning of the season the Eagles were so absolutely dominating and every loss seemed so ridiculous. To beat the birds you had to have your kicker make an impossible 62-yard FG he's never made before.

Then, in midseason, so many different things seemed to go wrong at the same time! Stuff that worked right in September just blew a wheel out in November. In September they were rotating the entire D line; then with injuries, they had to stick to the same guys for a while, just when the offense was sputtering and leaving the D on the field too long.

Now all these other teams seem like they might have peaked too early. Dawk said in last week's press conference, THAT was the REAL Eagles, not the crap you've been seeing recently.

I don't know. But you're right, I love the Eagles defense, it has been a fantastic thing to watch for the last few years.

How far will it go. So hard to know! You can call it better than I can, I'm sure! I hear the boys are -6.5 this week, for the third road conference game in a row. But you would not be surprised whatsoever to see the Eagle D pull another rabbit out of a hat! Yeah, I doubt it's a superbowl season without McNabb, but it's sure fun to watch!

[WabUfvot5]

The Raiders collapse was an anomaly. Center went AWOL, very accurate QB retires, coach is nearly mutinied. Very bad situation. Plus you have the usual injury problems and player turnover. I think Uncle Al needs to up and die and quit choking the team. He's obviously lost his marbles. I mean Aaron fucking Brooks?! Come on. Not to mention this last week he was on TV responding to a question about the team losing by telling how much he likes women... WTF?!

Post salary cap a lot of teams do seem to be cyclical. The 49ers are a good example. They were way over the cap and slashed dramatically. Only now are they in good cap shape and have players (Gore, Smith) in place to start really building around. They are on an upswing. The Steelers of course are on a post Super Bowl downswing due to players leaving and having to shell out more to resign players - less cap space to work with. While I didn't expect Pittsburgh to win the big game again their drop off is rather sharp. Given their winning ways recently I think it's safe to say a large part of this was due to Big Ben's poor play at the beginning of the year. The only team on the winning side that's been able to avoid that "hill" is the Patriots. They've been able to hold it off a long time but it's creeping up on them.

Last year Carolina suffered a ton of injuries. There were thought highly of going into this year - not only by me, but by locals and nearly every sporting publication with predictions in it. I mean, why not? They got Peppers and Smith. Delhomme may not be THE guy but he's competant enough. Plus they added some players like Keyshawn. Sadly I don't think they are a cohesive team. The Defense, Offense and Coaching just don't seem to be on the same page at the same time.

[W.HI.P]

N.F.L Pointspread
*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*

Minnesota Vikings - Green Bay Packers(-4,5)

I was hoping that the spread would be close enough so that I could take the Packers.
3 & 4 point differences are extremely common to be able to take a chance on GB.
Avoid

Kansas City Chiefs(-7,5) - Oakland Raiders

Although the spread here is wrong, since the teams are pretty much of the same quality.
Its not one that the Raides will care about, so stay away from it no matter how attractive it looks.

Tennessee Titans Buffalo Bills(-4,5)

I was almost sure they'd have this one wrong.
I thought they'd overestimate the Titans.
The Bills are a much better team, and at home,
but you'd have to question their motive at this point in the season.

New Orlean Saints - New York Gants(-3,0)

Huge differences here on every level.
The New york Giants will win this game really easy for they are by far the superior team!
3,0 points is not much

Bet on the Giants!

Carolina Panthers - Atlanta Falcons(6,5)

Last years matchup made sense, but it dosen't seem like this one will.
Carolina last week against weak Pitchberg looked like they didn't care.
It seems like there are quite a few teams(Bad and great) that are lowering their effort.
Let me put it this way......
if the Panthers return to playing with effort,
they will not only beat the spread, but they will win this game!
Othewise, well,the spread looks just about right.

Washington Redskins -St.Louis Rams(-2,5)

Another question of motives, otherwise Washington all the way.
Avoid

Indianapolis Colts(-9,5) - Houston Texans

Very very close to recommending the Texans here
as I am 99% sure that the Colts will not show up for this game.
But, it simply seems crazy to put my money on such a bad team against one of the greatest.
Do what you will, but reconsider if you are thinking about to wager on the colts.

Baltimore Ravens - Pitchberg Steelers(-3,5)

At this point in the season, almost every game lacks motive.
This is anothe one of those games, as the Ravens can afford to lose it.
My spread would read the Ravens favorite at -10,5 if the Ravens had to win
Avoid

Tamp Bay Bucs - Clevland Browns(-3,0)

The Clevland Browns are a much better team than the Bucs.
When knowledge sets in though, you follow!
I know that the Browns want to lose, there is no question.
The only way for the Browns not to get what they want, is if the Tampa bay Bucs want to lose more.
Regardless, I'll take a chance on the Browns getting what they want
the 3,0 points is a bonus in this case.

Bet on the Bucs

Chicago Bears(-6,5) - Detroit Lions

The Superbowl Bears reduced their efforts these past couple weeks as expected.
They should reduce it even more for this one, expect the lions to score.
Although the spread looks kinda big for a team that will relax.
I'll avoid betting against a superbowl team, as the Lions are really bad.

New England Patriots - Jacksonville Jaguars(-2,5)

The spread looks just about right, both teams are mediocre.
Now I know that a lot of you view the Patriots as some great team, but you are mistaken.

Arizona Cardinals - San Fransisco 49ers(-6,5)

This is a miss-match!
Arizona's super passing offence will have a field day against this high-school pass defence.
I'm not so sure they'll win the game, but the will score a bundle.
6,5 points seem like a lot when the underdog Arizona Cardinals should be scoring on almost every drive.

Bet on the Cardinals

Cincinnatti Bengals - Denver Broncos(-3,0)

Best bet of the week, without a doubt.
C.Bailey takes away 1 WR, but the Cincinnatti Bengals have plenty.
The Cincinnatti Bengals will win the game, the -3,0 points are simply a bonus

Bet on the Bengals

San Diego Chargers(-6,5) - Seattle Seahawks

The Chargeres are so much better than the Seahawks.
Normally these -6,5 points would look really small, but the Chargers can relax, therefore, avoid.

Philadelphia Eagels - Dallas Cowboys(-7,0)

WOW! I am so excited for my Eagels after beating the superior giants, they have gone far past my expectations. This game on paper is actually easier than the Giants matchup but I will avoid it.

New York Jets - Miami Dolphins(-1,5)

These football games are not just about who is the better team, its also about specific matchups.
What kind of offence is facing what kind of defence.
Reality check here, The Dolphins ofence is not up to par at all, and I don't just mean last week.
The Dolphins defence is great no doubt, but is it structured to handle an amazing passing offence like the Jets have? Even if they win some battles here, the New York Jets WILL score, and based on Miami's below par offence, and the fact that the Jets defence has stepped up considerably this past month.
Add to that, the Passion that New york will be bringing as they seem playoff prone.
I say They'll win! No spread to cover either, so....

Bet on the Jets

[W.HI.P]

I know the Game is just an hour away, but I have to comment on it.
There is some serious media brainwashing going on here.
Favre this and Favre that.
Excellent conditions favoring Favre, the Green bay packers, his final game in Green bay....Favre favre favre favre Green bay Green Bay Green bay.

Now, i've been watching the media for some time now, and whenever you see extreme brainwashing going on, ALWAYS BET AGAINST.

So yeah, Green bay is 4,5 point favorites

Bet on the Vikings!!!

Lets say I'm wrong here, lets say i'm imagining things.
Think about this game for a second.
Minnesota Has an amazing defence against the run, Green who is semi-injured as well will not get more than 50 yards running.
This will result in Favre having to throw the ball.
If you've seen any Packers games this year, you'll know that Favre has had a terrible year except for the games where he had run support.
He is too old to be playing and his decision making is terrible.
This particular game will have him throwing the ball a lot.
Although the Vikings are bringing a brand new QB in, against this Packers defence, he should look much better than he really is.
So, even straight up, this game looks like its going to the Vikings.

[W.HI.P]

Latest Results......

Minnesota Vikings 7-9 Green Bay Packers(-4,5) ....WIN
New Yourk Giants(-3,0) 7-30 New Orlean Saints ....Loss
Tampa Bay Bucs 22-7 Clevland Browns(-3,0) ....WIN
Arizona Cardinals 26-20 San Fransisco 49ers(-6,5) ....WIN
Cincinnatti Bengals 23-24 Denver Broncos(-3,0) ....WIN

.......Still to come

New York Jets - Miami Dolphins(-1,5)