Gulf coast oil spill

[glatt]

I'm reading a book right now about setting prices and going through price negotiations, and the theories promoted in that book are being used in this situation where they are estimating oil flow from this leak. BP and others aren't trying to agree on a price like you would with a sale, but they are trying to arrive at a number. One of the main points of the book is the idea of an "anchor" number. Once one party sets an anchor, all number floated after that anchor tend to be pulled toward that anchor number.

BP threw a number out there early on that was very low. They won the race to set the anchor point. So now everyone who has seen or heard that number, whether they realize it or not, is thinking about that original (low) BP number. Any future numbers are going to be compared to the low number and even if they are actually accurate they will be viewed as being unreasonably high. The burden of proof will be on the new numbers coming out to prove that they aren't unreasonable.

[classicman]

Oil and gas may be leaking from the seabed surrounding the BP Macondo well in the Gulf of Mexico, Senator Bill Nelson of Florida told Andrea Mitchell today on MSNBC. Nelson, one of the most informed and diligent Congressmen on the BP gulf oil spill issue, has received reports of leaks in the well, located in the Mississippi Canyon sector. This is potentially huge and devastating news.

If Nelson is correct in that assertion, and he is smart enough to not make such assertions lightly, so I think they must be taken at face value, it means the well casing and well bore are compromised and the gig is up on containment pending a completely effective attempt to seal the well from the bottom via successful “relief wells”. In fact, I have confirmed with Senator Nelson’s office that they are fully aware of the breaking news and significance of what the Senator said to Andrea Mitchell.

Furthermore, contrary to the happy talk propounded by BP, the Obama Administration and the press, the likely success of the “relief well” effort on the first try in August is nowhere near a certainty; and certainly nowhere near the certainty it is being painted as.

Ugh

[Shawnee123]

Yes, I would order it. I would order it to go wash all the damn oil off itself.

[Undertoad]

I'm not racist. In fact some of my best friends are blackfish.

[HungLikeJesus]

I just ate a Wendy's double baconator combo with french fries; a little crude oil-marinated blackfish is nothing compared to that.

[classicman]

What if it started as a whitefich and turned black because of the oil?

[tw]

Critical to a good meal is the presentation. The chef comes out. Throws a match on the entre. Flames cascade high above the pan as the flavoring burns off. They baked this way 20 years ago in Alaska - due to a similar environment.

[Shawnee123]

HLJ...you're sure getting a lot of suggestions from all these guys who usually don't have much to say about anything!

Figures.

[HungLikeJesus]

This is where we realize that none of us know as much as we think we do.

Last night I spent about half-an-hour discussing this with a co-worker (another engineer). We came up with lots of ideas, but nothing that we could send to the top of the Department of Energy.

Does anyone else have any real suggestions?

[Spexxvet]

Cover the end of the pipe with a giant hose and pump all the oil coming out of the pipe into tankers.

[glatt]

Heat shrink tubing. You get some fat-ass tubing and slip it over the whole mess, then you shoot hot water at it until it shrinks and seals everything up.

No? Tubing is too weak? How about bolting a second blowout preventer on top of the first one, and then closing the valves on it?

No? Methane ice will clog it up right away? Um. how about making a machine that will clamp securely onto the first blowout preventer and then will use hydraulic pistons to jam a plug right into the end of the pipe? Kind of like an old fashioned beer bottle stopper on a hinge, except with hydraulic pistons or screws on the sides to force it shut.

Basically, I don't know jack about how much pressure you are fighting and how the ice forms, but there are lots of different random ideas I could come up with.

How about a giant angioplasty balloon that you can stick into the pipe and then clamp it in place and start to inflate it with heavy mud or something?

[tw]

Originally Posted by HungLikeJesus

Does anyone else have any real suggestions?

Same one that applies to those other disasters. When you say you have a backup plan, have one that exists and is tested. It took then three weeks to build the cap they said existed. And then more weeks to discover and solve basic thermodynamic problems with the cap. So 1.5 month later, they still do not have the working solution they existed years ago.

When the maintenance calls for scrubbing the inside of a pipe to protect it, then do what then engineering demands.

When the only protection is a backup O'ring. And when previously flights almost failed for the same reason, then fix the problem. Don't reply on backups.

When trees are suppose to be cut tens of feet below high voltage transmission lines, then cut them. When the power lines are suppose to be loaded only to 95% capacity, do not load them routinely to 110%. When the computer system repeatedly locks out and does not report any failures, get the manufacturer's software updates from many years ago that fixes the problem. When you crash the entire NE power grid, then do not go walking about the building looking for the company president. Start the power recovery operations.

When the engineers say the leaking valve also will not report whether it is open or closed, then replace the defective valve. Do not restart the nuclear reactor to let the coolant all steam out of the plant, via a closed valve that is really open; exposing the nuclear core.

When the company has no innovations in thirty years except for those required by government regulation, then do not use money games to protect profits and further destroy the product lines.

When the NRC says the plant has a Three Mile Island problem that must be fixed NOW - then do not sponsor a Bush-Cheney campaign fund raiser to keep the plant operating.

When hundreds of engineers are desperately asking for information for more than a week to save seven Columbia astronauts, then do not quash the requests. Instead learn who want to know and why.

When a torpedo has a nasty habit of starting on its own and then exploding, fix the design of the torpedo.

When a gas tank on a school bus is outside of the frame, unprotected, and adjacent to the door, then don’t put that gas tank there.

When 500 pound bombs made before WWII and stored in a tropical environment are so old as to indiscriminately explode on their own, do not put them on an air craft carrier.

When the engineers say a new refinery process is too dangerous to start up with people still in the refinery, then do not startup that plant with people still in it.

When every light is flashing red; when security people say an attack is imminent involving planes and buildings, then don't ignore the memo on your desk that says it is coming.

When the tire is discovered defective; causing roll overs that kill people. Then do not say you will add a fifth ply to fix the defect; label the tire five ply; then never put that fifth ply into the tires. Then blame union workers for the missing ply.

When the Senior VP - the company #2 man - bluntly warns the entire company is at risk due to massive and unsustainable derivative investments, then do not fire him. Instead fix the problem 14 months before the entire economic meltdown and government intervention.

When putting Marines into a combat situation, then do not decree from the White House that those Marine guards cannot have live ammunition in their guns. After all they might shoot a Lebanese civilian.

When even the patent for the suspension says the car will roll over and kill if the stabilizer bar is not included, then include the stabilizer bar. Do not worry about the $4 additional expense.

When the car explodes on the test track before even the first one is sold, then install the $2 cap so that the gas tank will not explode. Do not deny the solution for years while people burn to death in the car. And do not keep putting gas tanks behind the rear axle where explosions are inevitable.

But these were all accidents with plenty of blame to go around. Maybe we should start at the sources of problems before they happen? Do you think?

Gulf damage is done. What has not happened in July is already a forgone conclusion. It will exist long into the fall. Begging for miracle ideas will not solve the reason for the failure or make a solution happen any faster. When the company stops drilling a second relief well because they *know* the first one will be successful, then a US president ordered them to restart drilling that second relief well. That is called a solution. Also have a backup well being drilled.

Why are they not asking for solutions so that this will not happen again. Because they who are stuck with the problem are also the only reason it (and future ones) exists.

[Shawnee123]

I do like your posts, tw.

[plthijinx]

maybe i'm just reaching but similar to what glatt mentioned. take an oversized rubber pipe with a hose clamp type device. guide it onto the riser then use a ROV to clamp it down

[tw]

Originally Posted by plthijinx

maybe i'm just reaching but similar to what glatt mentioned. take an oversized rubber pipe with a hose clamp type device. guide it onto the riser then use a ROV to clamp it down

Was already done - and failed.

Why did they not want the number of barrels per day measured? They did not want you to know why the things they were doing would be failures before they did it. They were using a four inch pipe to try to collect flow from an eight inch pipe. If the flow was only 5,000 barrels per day, then that four inch pipe might work. But the flow is more like 70,000 barrels per day - as so many third parties estimated from pictures. Pictures that BP would not release until ordered to by the White House.

Why would BP not release those pictures? Then we would learn how pathetic the pipe would be.

What happens to a nine inch rubber pipe that is one mile long? It snaps.

Well, a four inch pipe surrounded by a rubber stopper did not work. Stopper could not stop leaking. But then nothing they would try has ever been done before. Despite claims that they had backup plans, not one had been tested by anything but a pencil. That is the problem. The resulting oil all over the gulf is only secondary - is a smaller problem. Don't lose perspective. That is what BP's spin machine wants you to do. Worry about details.

What other solutions are being discussed? Who will be the new owners of BP. That is how solutions start. What is happening in the gulf is a forgone conclusion. The leak will not stop until that relief well finally locates and then drills into the original well some 16000 feet below the ocean's bottom.