Bad Astronomy, Penn and Teller, etc.

[Clodfobble]

Originally Posted by HungLikeJesus

He should probably have only taken out about 30 to 40%, but that depends on the age range we're considering.

No, according to the National Institute for Health, the childhood infectious disease death rate was already at .25% by 1910 (yes, that decimal is in the right place.) By 1920 that number had dropped to .15%, and it was down to .02% by 1950. That's 1 in 5000, back in 1950.

They also acknowledge that the current rate has not dropped at all since 1986, despite the fact that approximately two-thirds of the current vaccination schedule was added after 1986.

[HungLikeJesus]

I didn't intend this to be a discussion of childhood death and disease, but it's actually quite interesting.

According to The Decline of Childhood Mortality, by Kenneth Hill, Department of Population Dynamics, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Johns Hopkins University:

One of the most dramatic and significant changes in the human condition over the last two centuries has been the sharp and sustained decline that has taken place in infant and child mortality. In the now-developed countries of Europe, North America and Oceania, the probability of dying by first birthday has declined from, in many cases, 200 per thousand live births to less than 10 per thousand live births in the span of 100 years. This transition has had, and continues to have, profound implications for the family and society. This chapter chronicles the trend, and examines a variety of explanations for it that have been proposed.

Note that these numbers are for death by first birthday. The report goes on to discuss childhood mortality for various periods and geographical regions. The older records are not as reliable as modern data, and what data does exist probably ignores the poor.

The British peerage (Hollingsworth 1964) provide the most complete and detailed sequence. The probability of dying by age five in the mid 16th century is around 250 per thousand live births, rising steadily to around 350 by the mid 17th century, before starting a steady decline to below 200 by the mid 18th century and around 100 by the mid 19th century.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Yet the US stands at 180 out of 224, in infant mortatity.

[classicman]

Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce

Yet the US stands at 180 out of 224, in infant mortatity.

IIRC - Many countries have different definitions of "live birth" which skews the numbers.

[HungLikeJesus]

That's a list on which you don't want to be number one.

Edit: From your link:

Isle of Man is a British crown dependency but is not part of the UK or of the European Union.

I did not know that.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Yes, but 180 ain't so hot either.

[spudcon]

What does any of this have to do with bad astronomy?

[Undertoad]

Thimerosal was voluntarily removed from childhood vaccines ten years ago. The only childhood vaccine still containing it seems to be a Sanofi Pasteur dip-tet, for which there are several other options.

The removal of Thimerosal from childhood vaccines had no impact on climbing autism rates in the US and EU.

Here is the table of which vaccines contain Thimerosal.

[Clodfobble]

Originally Posted by UT

The removal of Thimerosal from childhood vaccines had no impact on climbing autism rates in the US and EU.

Incorrect. See pages 125-139 of the book you purchased, since you seem to have forgotten. The data from the handful of studies you are alluding to were examined in wholly illogical (at worst, fraudulent) ways--for example, one study looked at the numbers by year of diagnosis, rather than year of birth, despite the obvious fact that it was children born after a certain year who did or not not have the thimerosal, and when you re-graph the very same data they were looking at, the reduction in gain after Thimerosal was removed becomes clear. Not a true reduction in cases, of course, because as it has been explained repeatedly, Thimerosal was only one small piece of the probem, but a reduction in the upward slope of the graph.

[Clodfobble]

Originally Posted by HungLikeJesus

I didn't intend this to be a discussion of childhood death and disease, but it's actually quite interesting.

I'll assume that by "interesting" you mean "still nowhere near my completely bullshit number of 30-40%." For fuck's sake, the death rate for soldiers in the Civil War was only 25%.

At any rate, it's true, infant mortality has been vastly improved by things like pre-natal care, neonatal intensive care, and even things like surgery in utero. That has nothing to do with the rates of infectious disease, or the vaccinations intended to prevent them.

[HungLikeJesus]

Not that, cf. I meant it's interesting to see how people react when someone doesn't agree with them.

I didn't realize a thread about Bad Astronomy would get anyone so excited.

From today's post regarding testing of a cruise missile in 1986:

... When the missile exploded, the expanding debris cloud from the vaporized weapon was probably moving faster than the speed of sound. Even so, in this second picture you can see none of it had touched the plane yet when the shot was snapped. Yet look at the plane: it’s on fire. How can that be?

When the warhead exploded, it sent out a huge pulse of heat in the form of infrared photons, light that travels about a million times faster than sound.

[Clodfobble]

when someone doesn't agree with them.

Yeah, that's what Penn was doing when he screamed obscenities and flung props around the room. He was merely disagreeing.

You gonna cop to the utter ridiculousness of your made-up statistics, or just keep letting it slide?

[HungLikeJesus]

Sorry, cf. I thought I addressed it in post 16.

But the other point was that I don't think they were trying to be precise in the number of bowling pins that were knocked down.

[Undertoad]

If you are back participating in the threads, Clod, we have unfinished business. I need you to watch the final Desiree Jennings video, which I posted here. It occurred only a few days after you declared your retirement from the threads.

After you watch it, tell me once again that you believe she was injured by a vaccine and had dystonia.

[Undertoad]

This is a graph of new autism cases in the US. Note that the graph was prepared by Thoughtful House on the basis of CDC data. I have removed the years that mark the horizontal axis. Please point to the year Thimerosal was taken out of childhood vaccines.

Point is, "a reduction in the upward slope of the graph" is not a very interesting correlation.