Pending Invasion

[NoEdwonun]

It would be nice not to start a third world war.

[sexobon]

Oh, well done for a first post here. It gives me an idea for a new sitcom: Two and A Half World Wars.

[Sundae]

Don't under-estimate the problem of land borders in many places in mainland Europe.
We're not even immune to it on our little island(s) let alone across huge land masses.
The citizens of the Crimea vote in the Ukraine election, but are outnumbered. They speak Russian and identify with Russia. They feel Russian.

Look at the borders of even well established, secure democratic countries in Europe and you will see that cultures and languages blend close to the border. And borders have shifted in these areas for centuries.

Add recent political and economic instability into the mix and you can see why it's not been a stable region for decades.

It's kinda like when "we" carved up Africa according to Western politics and claims, somehow not taking into account tribal lands and sensibilities. Result? Civil war, death, power grabbing and a bit more death. Some of which may have happened anyway, but drawing arbitrary lines on a map massively exacerbated things.

What can we do now? In the Crimea I mean. As little as possible. I hope.

[sexobon]

Russia gives us Snowden, we give them Ukraine. It's practically a done deal.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Got in an email...

Maybe we should not have cut our military force back.
Maybe we need a president with military experience.
And more militant diplomats.

I responded with a long list of logistic and strategy problems that come into play, and got back...

...it is not halfway around the world Alaska is very close to Russia. They can attack us easily on the Alaska and northern Calif coasts.

Where do I even start.

[Dagney]

Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce

Got in an email...

I responded with a long list of logistic and strategy problems that come into play, and got back...

Where do I even start.

If Sarah just turns off the porchlight, the Russians can't find her - yanno, since they're so close up there and all.

[tw]

Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce

From email: Maybe we should not have cut our military force back.

A larger miltary does nothing for a political chess game. Where the board has far more than 64 squares. And most do not even know where all squares are located.

For example, Saakashvili discusses one square. Europe gets 30% of its gas (methane) from Russia. The Crimea apparently has a massive shale gas reserve. Had Ukraine moved politically more westward, Europe would be gas sufficient; not dependent on Russia.

Putin's actions may be knee-jerk. But he is also playing chess by planning all possible moves at least three in advance. He needed to make that gas available only through a Russian market; not via an EU nation.

The weakest part of this game is Europe whose leaders probably will not get off their ass to make a united stand (politically - not militarily). As in the Balkans, Europe may again need the US to get them to act in their own interests. And to realize what this long term game is that Putin is playing.

Closest Europe has to any leader with foresight is Merkel.

Putin has already exercised plans in Georgia, Armenia, and has one ongoing with Turkey. And apparently did not succeed in the Baltic nations.

And you thought 3D chess was hard.

[Undertoad]

Europe has more experience with guys with control issues taking over powerless countries under any flimsy pretense. I'm sure they will signal the US when it's a real emergency.

Britain, don't complain about fracking. You'll need to do that in a few years, when Putin cuts off energy and the entire continent calls and asks you to rescue their ass again. The down side is you'll end up rich -- and hated. Welcome to our world, 51st state.

[Spexxvet]

Personally, I don't care about Crimea.

I can see where Russia/Crimea broke international law, and the US is the only entity willing/able to do something about it

On the other hand

The US took similar action in 1776, without joining with another country

[tw]

Since so little has hype to make the news, then many have little idea that a potential occupation of Ukraine remains ongoing. Putin has appeared to be doing nothing while major efforts are ongoing to create the next step in annexing Ukraine. If I did not note it in other threads, watch the city of Donetsk. Next step is to create instability in regions where Russians are a minority but a major section of that region. So that Russian armor and paratroops already massed on Ukraine borders can step in to restore order.

Negotiations were successful in slowing Putin. But we have no reason to believe he has tabled his ego. He made a big deal about withdrawing a few troops. While tens of thousands remains perched for invasion.

Putin has stated his intent - to restore Russia's power and glory. Putiin has again threatened Europe's gas supply. And will again cut off gas to Ukraine. Since the corruption by Yanukovych means $billion to pay previous gas bills is missing. Another excuse by Russia to increase pressure and harm to Ukraine's economy. To make instablity more likely.

He is playing a long term game. Opposition by Obama and Merkel have caused him to slow his game. But the game is still afoot.

[Urbane Guerrilla]

Originally Posted by tw

. . . Consequences exist because a US public loved a wacko extremist doing permentently damage America's reputation. An America that criticizes Putin must also acknowledge similar evils and lies performed by George Jr. No American president will do that.

Tw certainly will not think the present President is a wacko extremist, and hence this part of his post dwells in a particularly hazy cloud-cuckoo-land; execrable and highly dishonorable leftism raves through his frontal lobes, causing him to write pernicious drivel, often at length, and generally support Democratic candidates, as unbalanced as he is. While his hobby keeps him in the basement and off the streets, there its virtues rather come to an end.

I've been contemptuous of tw's political thinking from the first day I met it.

[BigV]

your logic is faulty UG.

Originally Posted by Urbane Guerrilla

Tw certainly will not think the present President is a wacko extremist,

because the present President is not a wacko extremist. Period.

Originally Posted by Urbane Guerrilla

--snip--
I've been contemptuous of tw's...

because everything looks like a nail, when you're a hammer.

Originally Posted by Urbane Guerrilla

political thinking from the first day I met it. it doesn't really matter what goes here, any old nail will suffice.

Boring.

[BigV]

No, you're wrong sexobon. It is impossible to oversimplify UG's post since it was only composed of an ad hominem attack, and nothing more (and one personal expression of UG's contempt). There is no content there, save for how he is contemptuous of tw's faulty thinking. Go back and look for anything of substance. Where is there any discussion of facts? Let's look:

UG says tw:

Originally Posted by Urbane Guerrilla

Tw certainly will not think the present President is a wacko extremist, and hence this part of his post dwells in a particularly hazy cloud-cuckoo-land; execrable and highly dishonorable leftism (*Trust me, this is meant as a stinging insult--BigV*) raves through his frontal lobes, causing him to write pernicious drivel, often at length, and generally support Democratic candidates (*a cardinal sin, according to the book of UG*), as unbalanced as he is. While his hobby keeps him in the basement and off the streets, there its virtues rather come to an end.

I've been contemptuous of tw's political thinking from the first day I met it.

Did I miss much? THAT is what I call boring. It's the same, same, same old boring shit. UG doesn't like tw, tw's writing, tw's ideas, tw's presence on the streets, etc, etc, ad fucking nauseum.

[sexobon]

It seems that that UG made a point with his opening. I take "whacko extremist" here as the euphemism it has become to me to include lesser behaviors from tw's use of it.

Originally Posted by Urbane Guerrilla

Tw certainly will not think the present President is a wacko extremist, ...

What follows the opening is rhetoric. So what, sticks and stones.

[sexobon]

It seems that UG has struck the nail a true blow. Tw routinely calls out the previous Republican President by name for things that occurred on his watch; but, not the current Democratic President. Oh, tw will call out the NSA, the State Dept., and even the heads of Departments; but again, he doesn't call out Hussein like he calls out Dubya for adverse things that happen on the current President's watch. It's sorta, maybe, kinda like when people attribute to God the good things that happen; but, never the bad things ... no, no ,no ... bad things always get attributed to other people; or, the debbil! UG makes a valid point even if his style of expression is "boring." I think V's reply oversimplifies UG's post to deemphasize the content and accentuate the style.