2006 Predictions

[lookout123]

that will most likely play into it, but the fact that it is a new guy will cause some short term speculation as people try to read between the lines with everything he says.

[Beestie]

Originally Posted by tw

I didn't see any reference to interest rates. Almost no interest rate increases are what other market monitors cite as a reason for market improvement.

There is no single economic corellation with stock market movement. But there is one non-economic one: optimism or, if you prefer, exhuberance. Rationality notwithstanding.

Interest rates affect stock prices but do not determine them. One reason the effect of rates on stock prices is not certain is that in an increasing rate environment, corporations turn to equity markets for capital and away from debt. This leads to a decline in new debt offerings. If the supply of new debt falls, investors must choose between existing debt which is declining in value because of the increase in rates or equity. If, during this time, investors are generally confident (optimistic) then the money will flow in, the demand for debt will decrease and interest rates will experience a downward pressure which even if it is not sufficient to decrease rates may be enough to slow their increase.

Bottom line: If everyone thinks the stock market will improve then it will.

[Rock Steady]

I sent in some of these predictions in response to a newpaper article on High-Tech Predictions. Looks like I have more work to do on one prediction that I just pulled out of my ass.

Thanks for your predictions.

I'd like to use one of them: number 5, on wireless Internet access.

To meet my rule, however, you'd need to rewrite your prediction to include some specific detail -- such as the number of households that will be using municipal Wi-Fi at the end of 2006 -- so that we can look back in a year to see if you were right or wrong.

Do you want to make such a revision? If so, I need it by noon Tuesday.


EDIT: Here is the revision that I submitted:

Free Wireless Internet Access challenges home wired access.

By the end of 2006, of 570,000 residential households in Santa Clara County, 200,000 households will have access to free Wi-Fi Internet connections within their homes. Over 20,000 households will have people that use the service at home for convenience. Perhaps as many as 2,000 households will use the free Wi-Fi as the only Internet connection in their home.

Jeb Bush will change his title to CeO of Florida after another hurricane of Katrina proportions sweeps the city of Miami along with much of the rest of south Florida off to Cuba. Halliburten will be awarded the contract to govern what is left of the state and Democrats will complain of gerrymandering on the part of FEMA crews.

George Jr. will give 7 progres reports on Iraq, explaining that we are doing such a great job that we can't possibly leave just yet. WMD's will be sighted by a goat boy who had already gained notoriety earlier in the year by claiming to see a vision of W smacking Out Lady of Guadalupe over the head with a Koran. These remarkable occurences will be pintpointed by sources within the Pentagon as having actually occurred at about the same coordinates as the ones for Goldbug, Kentucky.

Many Hollywood stars will lose or gain weight, have divorces, get married to losers, have affairs with their pool attendent and publically come out as having had face transplants. You will read about these things as you stand in the supermarket check out line.

UFO's will be seen by many isolated and scattered ranchers in the middle of Montana. The UFO's will fly in formation with eerie blinking lights to create the message, "Hey, Stupid! Knock it off already!"

Lookout will finally reveal his true idenity as Nat King Cole.

Brianna will be named poet Laureate of the Maldive Islands, and Tonchi will set fire to Fresno and escape town at long last with the Queen of the Universe hot on her heels.

[Trilby]

Originally Posted by marichiko

Brianna will be named poet Laureate of the Maldive Islands,

Yessss!

Oh, yeah, um, I predict that UT will give up and become a biker with the Hell's Angels, and will insist on directing their Toys for Tots program every Christmas. This will cause a lot of hurt feelings and jealousy within the group and he will be asked to step down. He won't. Bruce will re-marry and be deliriously happy, richlevy will become host of a critically acclaimed cooking show and wolf will finally admit to being powerless over Nancy Grace and CourtTeeVee and enter rehab. A&E's INTERVENTION will film the entire thing.

[wolf]

New Orleans will be hit by another hurricane, just to make sure that we got the idea the first time ...

[Kitsune]

Originally Posted by Rock Steady

Free Wireless Internet Access covers commercial and residential areas; many skip home wired access

Hmm... I'll predict that more states will pass laws restricting or banning free WiFi access due to "security concerns" and encouragement from the DHS and large telcom companies.

Florida will take a hit from at least one major hurricane and two minor ones. Tampa will, of course, be spared. GA/SC will also see a very destructive hurricane that will run a path clear into NC. In the late summer, the southeast US will see a drought.

Housing will slide, but condos will crash. ...except in Florida, where destructive hurricanes will once again cause a housing shortage.

A new trend will emerge that sees thousands of retirees flee to Mexico and other countries where their dollar will go a greater distance than in the US. Counterfit prescription drugs will become a major blip the US radar.

More companies will decrease insurance coverage and decrease or eliminate pensions all together. The generation just behind the boomers will begin to panic and scramble to save themselves. Stocks will rise on this news, then rise even more as money allocated for retirement begins to flood into 401ks and SEPP-like accounts. Then, without warning, it will all be flushed down the toilet by bad earnings reports after the 3rd quarter. Social security will be examined and painted in a bad light, again.

More damning evidence against the Bush administration will see the light of day. The people of the United States will continue to ignore it and mostly not care.

Easter will be next to "fall under attack by the left". Abortion will hit the supreme court. Gay marriage will be permitted by some states and then banned by the federal government.

UK-like surveillance will be proposed by several states and the federal gov't under the guise of anti-terror bills and consumer convience. People will love it, critics of it will be denounced. "If you have nothing to hide, you have nothing to worry about." Cameras on street corners will begin to be accepted in cities followed by neighborhoods, RFID tags will spread beyond your passport, GPS will be put in wide use by some states for toll road tracking, and ultra-secure subdivisions will explode in popularity for the middle class.

Gas will hit more than $3/gal, again.

Bird flu will be a bust while the normal flu will kill thousands as usual.

[monster]

Originally Posted by wolf

New Orleans will be hit by another hurricane, just to make sure that we got the idea the first time ...

you bad.


Reality TV will combine UK's "space cadets" with USA's "American Idol" to produce a warehouseful of William Hungs.

Unusual winter weather in many parts of the US will be blamed on global warming. Solution will be found in raised gas prices.

Cheney will be hospitalized for a heart issue.
Bush will be hospitalized for "routine tests"
A member of the British royal family will be hospitalized for a "lodged fishbone in the throat".

I may well kill one or more of my children. I draw the line at eating them.

[Rock Steady]

Originally Posted by Kitsune

Hmm... I'll predict that more states will pass laws restricting or banning free WiFi access due to "security concerns" and encouragement from the DHS and large telcom companies.

That may be true for dark ages states like kansas and pennsylvania. But, my newspaper was asking for predictions related to our area and industry in the Silicon Valley.

Our city here in Sunnyvale was the first municipality in the nation to sign a free Wi-Fi deal and we did it without the text-filter snooping of "Big Brother" Google.

MetroFi plans to run local and national ads on the service, but will not track the browsing habits of its customers, Haas said. The only thing MetroFi will know is that their customers are in Sunnyvale, "which is valuable to local advertisers.''

[Beestie]

Originally Posted by Rock Steady

...The only thing MetroFi will know is that their customers are in Sunnyvale....[/i]

It'll never last. Either they will cave to the economic juggernaught or W will have their arms twisted out of their sockets. Or both.

[BigV]

The future is here already in Spokane WA too.

[wolf]

Philly's next, you know. Despite a multitude of more significant problems (fix the transit system, provide more effective crime control, reduce unemployment, increase business opportunities and ownership, stop people from fleeing to the suburbs and other states at the rate of about 10-20K per year, or even getng the trash picked up on schedule, etc.) John Street is totally hot on the idea of making Philadelphia the first 100% WiFi accessible major city.

[Rock Steady]

Originally Posted by wolf

John Street is totally hot on the idea of making Philadelphia the first 100% WiFi accessible major city.

You mean Sunnyvale pop. 130,000 is not a major city? We have Yahoo! hqd here. What does Philly have? Unisys?

[wolf]

Philly doesn't even really have that. Unisys is in Blue Bell, which is quite a bit out of the city.

And come on ... it is totally much cooler to have the first real computer company in America than have the series of really successful ones, isn't it??

[barefoot serpent]

wolfs post count eclipses 13,000








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