Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

[sexobon]

Here's a nicely written article that looks at the pros and cons of wearing facemasks, non-medical masks in particular, in public. It comes as the CDC considers the overall value of adding the practice to its guidelines:

CDC considering recommending general public wear face coverings in public

[Undertoad]

China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak, U.S. Intelligence Says

China has concealed the extent of the coronavirus outbreak in its country, under-reporting both total cases and deaths it’s suffered from the disease, the U.S. intelligence community concluded in a classified report to the White House, according to three U.S. officials.

The officials asked not to be identified because the report is secret and declined to detail its contents. But the thrust, they said, is that China’s public reporting on cases and deaths is intentionally incomplete. Two of the officials said the report concludes that China’s numbers are fake.

I don't like it when anonymous intelligence officials make claims to the press. But this is not shocking news. The CDC said early on that they could not depend on China's numbers, and were using the figures from travel-related illnesses for their projections.

This thing was a mystery for far too long because of those fuckers. They even continue to lie today. The world is left to clean up their mess. Chinese government is asshoe.

[Undertoad]

Originally Posted by Undertoad

The CDC said early on that they could not depend on China's numbers, and were using the figures from travel-related illnesses for their projections.

But not earliest on: apparently Dr. Brix noted during yesterday's conference that the CDC depended on China's information during the early phase. That makes sense, as it took time for travelers to travel, and for their illnesses to be diagnosed and more information collected. The point at which I saw the CDC say they were using travel information was a few days into the US reaction.

[Luce]

Of course China lied. They're using 5000 funerary urns per day above normal use. Or were.

That being said, deaths in NYC passed the 1000 mark.

https://apnews.com/57ed90189a682fff96b25e7e1805facf

[BigV]

Originally Posted by U.S. Surgeon General
@Surgeon_General

There remains scant evidence wearing a mask- especially improperly- provides much benefit to a healthy wearer.

However emerging data suggests facial coverings may prevent asymptomatic disease transmission to others.

6h ago as of 1230 pacific time 02 Apr 2020

emphasis mine
if you're doing it wrong, it's gonna be wrong. As for dead horses, the doctor in the first video stressed that the purpose of wearing a mask was to help the wearer become alert to the unconscious habit of touching one's face and to stop doing it. so if you're doing it, touching your face either because you're wearing a mask or because you don't have a mask to help you become aware that you're touching your face, you're still not helping yourself by touching your face and the mask is irrelevant. I suppose if the mask makes you touch your face *more*, that's a problem, but maybe you're just not using the right mask.

Everybody says stop touching your face.

If a mask helps accomplish this, great. Pockets work too--until you take your hand from your pocket to touch your face. The current news that masks maybe/probably help reduce transmission of the disease FROM asymptomatic carriers is good news in addition to any face touching reductions masks may facilitate.

[sexobon]

[xoxoxoBruce]

I saw this today...

Under its newest COVID-19 prevention guidelines, China does not include in its overall daily count for total and for new cases those who retest positive after being released from medical care. China also does not include asymptomatic cases in case counts.

Retest positive? Reinfected?
Don't count asymptomatic who have tested positive or not tested?
Hmm, more suspicion on their numbers.

[Undertoad]

You can see hope on this map

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-us-cases.html

In the middle of the page, second map down is "Where cases are rising fastest". The places it hit first and people went into harder lockdown mode are turning light pink. Seattle, SF, Brooklyn, and here in PA, Montgomery County and Chester County. Here, new rates are taking longer than a week to double. Hopefully this means the curve has changed in these locations.

[Undertoad]

Breaking: Wuhan death toll was listed at 2,535; now re-estimated by Chinese authorities to be over 40,000

[Griff]

My current case load of kids includes 3 moms who are home health aides. These are very poor people who are pulling extra shifts because folks with resources are sitting home. We have the poor serving the old and infirm. I'm a supporter of keeping folks out of nursing homes if at all possible but this isn't going to go well.

[Griff]

Originally Posted by Undertoad

Breaking: Wuhan death toll was listed at 2,535; now re-estimated by Chinese authorities to be over 40,000

National Review has reported that number.

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/...und-the-clock/

[Undertoad]

My local example.

On 3/29, I noted:

Lower Merion population: 59,000. lower-upper class to upper-upper class. Cases: 71

2 miles away, Norristown population: 35,000. lower-lower class to lower-middle class. Cases: 4

Five days later, today, 4/3:

Rich folk Lower Merion cases: 123. This area is doubling roughly every 8-9 days.

Working class Norristown cases: 12. The area is doubling roughly every 3 days.

[Undertoad]

OK I need to get a Post subscription to fully understand quickly breaking items. That was the Post's analysis, not a re-estimate by authorities.

[Griff]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I don't know where they get data or who they are but the chart is interesting breaking things down by million population.

[Undertoad]

Most excellent update on the IHME models website which everyone is using

Overall US:
- # of deaths projected decreased from 93,531 to 81,766
- Projected total bed shortage went from 87,674 to 36,654
- Peak dates(April 15 for resource needed peak, 16th for peak daily death toll) unchanged
- Under 200 deaths a day: Moved from June 3 to May 18