What's in Your Portfolio

[sexobon]

Originally Posted by IamSam

... Me? I'd stick with gold if I could. ...

A wise investment is in guns. You can realize substantial profit from them ... one way or another.

[tw]

Originally Posted by Nirvana

Farm land its better than owning others companies ..if there are live people they will always need to eat...

From The Economist of 25 Aug 2012:

Farmland Prices
This year's drought in America will reduce farm incomes, but the price of farmland in the Midwest has risen by almost 20% since the end of last year. Strong farm incomes in recent years (and low interest rates) have enabled farmers to pay up for land; high commodity prices have also attracted investors. The price of land in America's corn belt is ten times greater than in Canada's main farming provinces, now among the cheapest places in the world to grow grain.

Earlier on 20 Apr 2011:

Though down a bit from the highs of 2008, inflation-adjusted farmland values remain well above the last great peak of three decades ago (see chart), buoyed by strong commodity prices, low interest rates and a weak dollar. In parts of the Midwest they rose by more than 20% last year. Feeling flush, farmers have rushed to buy and cultivate more land. Inventories look likely to remain depleted, putting upward pressure on crop and land prices. Investors now account for a quarter of all land purchases in some states. ...
A rise in capitalisation rates back to their historic average would imply farmland-price falls of up to a third, estimate officials at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. ...
[FDIC] examiners are no longer relying so much on aggregate industry data, says one, but are "asking more questions of individual high-flying lenders about how they plan to mitigate the risks of a bubble bursting." They are urging banks to lend based on cashflow projections, not collateral values.

A reason for the massive recession: banks and other financial institutions failed to do their jobs; to verify an applicant could afford the loan. This 'deregulation' (approved by 'political propaganda') created one massive recession. We don't need another created by irresponsible finance people.

Review what happened in 1929 to understand why farmland prices, like house prices, do not necessarily mean a good investment.

Despite what bean counter types say, a good investment must be based in the product. Not myths so often promoted on spread sheets created by finance people. Due to finance spin, land prices may be 30% too high; a crash can be expected.

[Nirvana]

don't worry about me TW I am good

[xoxoxoBruce]

Sure, that's because you live on it and off it.

The scumbags that were playing the wall street game, until it fell apart, were looking for a new game. Some of that money has moved into farm land speculation hoping to create another bubble for quick profit. As they drive the value up, the taxes also go up, making harder for small farmers/ranchers.

Some of them have moved into the commodities futures market, bidding up the prices, which increases the cost of food for us and our animals. They're outbidding the traditional players, like General Mills and Purina who were mostly the end users interested in keeping prices down.

Fortunately they can't move the land off shore... except what washes downstream into the ocean.

[Nirvana]

The reason food prices are so high is because of ethanol subsidies period. Once the powers to be get their head out of their alimentary canal and find another crop besides corn (saw grass etc.) for ethanol production. Food prices would moderate.

[Happy Monkey]

Originally Posted by Gravdigr

I hadn't noticed that in the last, oh, say, 44 yrs of living.

Obviously it depends on what products you are buying with the $20, but on average a product that cost $20 44 years ago would cost $470.25 today.

Google gives various particulars for 50 years ago.

Due to technology and economies of scale, there are some items that you could get a rough equivalent now for roughly the same dollar vaue; there are probably some canned meals that aren't much more than the 30 cent canned ravioli. Ramen, at least. And clothing can be very cheap these days (though you may also have to buy it more frequently). But unless you've whittled down your needs to just inflation-resistant items (and if so, more power to you), the calculations you've made about lasting 'til age 68 may need occasional adjustment.

[tw]

Originally Posted by Nirvana

The reason food prices are so high is because of ethanol subsidies period.

A serious and yet unnoticed problem. Eliminate a product that has almost no purpose. And farmland prices take a tumble. We have created a large industry that increases GDP while doing almost nothing productive. The resulting cash flow typically enrich Wall Street types - resulting in a future economic downturn suffered by others.

Generally, products remains at similar prices when inflation is considered. For example, an upscale car in 1969 might be $4500. With inflation that is $30,000 today. A loaf of bread in 1950 was $0.14. Today it should cost $1.35. So why is bread 85% higher?

[Lamplighter]

A loaf of bread in 1950 was $0.14. Today it should cost $1.35. So why is bread 85% higher?

Because many store breads are "multi-grain" which, of course, would cost more than bleached white flour.
But then, I've long argued that "multi-grain" means it was the floor-sweepings of the night shift.

[IamSam]

Originally Posted by Nirvana

The reason food prices are so high is because of ethanol subsidies period. Once the powers to be get their head out of their alimentary canal and find another crop besides corn (saw grass etc.) for ethanol production. Food prices would moderate.

The reason food prices are so high in Colorado (and other regions in the middle of the country) is because of the unrelenting drought we've being enduring for years now. The cost of hay is around $300/ton in some areas, and farmers just can't pay that kind of price to raise their cattle, so you see the cost of beef going higher than the cost of gold.

Out here, even the lowly pinto bean is in trouble. McPhee Reservoir (which supplies much of our irrigation water) is at a mere 19% of normal. As it now stands, the water will be gone about half way through the summer. Farmers will be able to grow only one crop of hay instead of the usual two. I don't know what will happen to the pintos. States that are downstream from Colorado like New Mexico with its dependence on the Rio Grande (which has its headwaters here) are threatening legal action if Colorado keeps too much water for itself.

Things are just not good for farmers and ranchers for more reason than one.

[Lamplighter]

OK, here's your chance... come to Oregon and fish for your fortune.


KATU.com
5/7/13


There's a $1M fish just waiting to be caught

PORTLAND, Ore. - One lucky angler could land a $1 million payday
if they catch a specially-tagged rainbow trout that might be in one of two Oregon lakes.

It's all part of the national 'Fish for Millions' contest sponsored
by Cabela's and wildlife agencies from across the United States.

Both Hagg Lake in Washington County and South Twin Lake in
Deschutes County were the chosen water bodies here in Oregon.
Each lake was planted with rainbow trout that have small spaghetti tags with numbers on them.

If you catch one, just check the number online and see what you won.
The contest runs now through July 7.

Other prizes include Ranger boats, a Chevy truck, Cabela's shopping sprees and fishing gear,
Costa sunglasses and Cabela's gift cards.
<snip>

Hagg Lake is just outside of PDX, and will certainly have a LOT of people fishing this weekend.
South Twin is in central Oregon, and is a smaller lake with good bank-side fishing,
and boating is restricted to non-motorized craft.
If I were trying for this fish, I'd head to central Oregon.

[tw]

Adding to the chorus who sing "investment professionals underperform the market" is word from Charlie Ellis. He is only repeating what Frontline made so glaringly obvious. Actively traded mutual funds are loser.

Ellis notes 60% of actively traded funds (where the stock broker is considered informed) unperform their ROI targets. Within 20 years, 70% underperform. And within 30 years, 80% underperform.

Charlie Ellis also notes the funds primary objective is to enrich the fund manager. The almost 1% fees mean you can surrender anywhere from 30% to 60% of your investment to that manager.

Ellis also echos what informed investors have known for quite some time. Exchange Traded Funds (sometimes called Spyders) have fees as low as 0.04%. If investing in index funds, then the ETFs are a best alternative.

However better returns are averaged by purchasing stocks directly. By ignoring investment advise from those who least understand the best investment - investment professionals. By learning what to invest in by learning the company's products.

From Ellis's book:

…institutional investors will, over the long term, underperform the market because money management has become a Loser’s Game.

[glatt]

Thanks for beating this drum, tw.

I encourage anyone with a 401K or in other mutual funds to take the time to look at the fees for the funds you are in. They really are extreme in the managed funds. I also recommend the index based funds with the low fees.

I did this recently and ended up making a bunch of changes. I had been ignoring the funds for too long.

[Lamplighter]

In today's news...

Watch Out Wal-Mart? Kroger Buys Harris Teeter For $2.4 Billion Cash, Adding ...

Cash ! That's $ in their banks ! Cash !

And here we are worrying about piddling $100k student loans
.
.

[Lamplighter]

...and they say the Dow is a 6-month-out predictor of the US economy

LA Times
Andrew Tangel
November 18, 2013, 6:59 a.m.

Dow hits new milestone: 16,000

The stock market's rally has surprised even some of the most bullish prognosticators on Wall Street.
<snip>

The Dow closed above 15,000 in early May.
That was only three months after the blue-chip stock index closed above 14,000
for the first time since the financial crisis.

So far this year, the Dow is up nearly 22%.

[glatt]

Good