View on the recent Gaza/Israel stikes

[classicman]

Originally Posted by tw

Ironic as it may sound - to minimize loss of life, massive deaths of equal numbers on both sides are necessary. That is the only way that moderates from both sides can act as moderates again. That is the only way that wacko extremists can be disenfranchised. That is the only apparent way that this conflict can end up back at the negotiation table.

Another Oslo Accord is impossible until death rates are very high on both sides - until the number of dead make everyone realize how wacko those extremists really are.

Originally Posted by tw

Funny how wackos suddenly lose power when death rates increase massively. But then that required one to think without posting meaningless and childish replies. Not that I expect you to think. This post was from tw.

Oh really??

[classicman]

BTW - the disparaging remarks are getting old again. I think you are due for your 2 week break about now.

[tw]

Originally Posted by classicman

BTW - the disparaging remarks are getting old again. I think you are due for your 2 week break about now.

Well then talk to the source and instigator - TheMercenary. I am not the one so low class as to routinely post profanity and remarks completely irrelevant to the topic. Meanwhile, "Oh really" is your usual way of personally attacking another. If classicman was being honest, then classicman posted facts in reply - or posted nothing. Passive aggressive on your part will eventually start another flame war. Your choice.

Meanwhile, one effective solution to conflicts - because the objective of all wars is to take the conflct back to the negotiation table - is massive death rates. Suddenly the glory hyped by extremist quickly loses credibility. A 10% death rate of all Palestinians and Israelis would quickly make Likud and Hamas extremists unpopular. No way around that potential solution - which may be the only one left in a region where being a moderate is almost impossible.

[TheMercenary]

Originally Posted by tw

Well then talk to the source and instigator - TheMercenary. I am not the one so low class as to routinely post profanity and remarks completely irrelevant to the topic.

WTF?

[TheMercenary]

Originally Posted by tw

Many a war suddenly had no purpose or glory once the death rates became impossible to accept. Numbers such as 10% are often discussed.

Cite.

[xoxoxoBruce]

That was the theory of Sun Tzu, what it would take to achieve the ultimate goal of driving the enemy to the bargaining table. When wars ground on for years, until attrition forced bargaining, it was true. But that went the way of sword fighting and knickers.

We have the technology for a relative handful of people to obliterate a continent, so now it's unconditional surrender of the entire nation.

[TheMercenary]

I think the Hamas may be at a disadvantage in this one unless it goes on for an extended period of time. Israel may have learned it's lesson with the last incursion into Lebanon.

[tw]

Originally Posted by TheMercenary

I think the Hamas may be at a disadvantage in this one unless it goes on for an extended period of time. Israel may have learned it's lesson with the last incursion into Lebanon.

An important question is which lesson Israel learned. For example, if the purpose in Lebanon was to attack Hezbollah, then why were Israeli warplanes attacking non-Hezbollah targets even in the most northern Lebanon cities?

Whereas Israel clearly got their asses kicked in Lebanon, the reasons why are not entirely clear. Maybe Israel listened to their Air Force foolishly insist the Air Force could force the release of kidnapped Israeli soldiers. Or maybe Israel foolishly thought they would force the release by attacking even the Lebanon army and UN observers. Or maybe Israel had no strategic objective until a last minute decision caused a sudden and underplanned attack on Lebanon.

The common theme was serious management failures. Was that management failure the only reason that Israel failed so miserably in Lebanon? Or maybe Israeli extremists were losing control over the moderates? Or maybe Hezbollah had more military strength than Israel was willing to admit. Without answers to those questions and others, then any prediction in Gaza will only be wild speculation more akin to total fiction.

Long before anyone can speculate on Gaza, first, what is Israel's strategic objective? To clean out militants and withdrawal? To completely occupy Gaza like Israel did in Lebanon? Until such questions can be answered, then nothing can be speculated about Hamas' future in Gaza.

[piercehawkeye45]

Okay I see your point now Bruce.

Originally Posted by TheMercenary

I think the Hamas may be at a disadvantage in this one unless it goes on for an extended period of time. Israel may have learned it's lesson with the last incursion into Lebanon.

Israel stated that they plan an occupation that will last a long time. They want to completely wipe out Hamas, which I would think is impossible. Even if they do, its likely that an even more extreme group will take over.

[classicman]

Originally Posted by piercehawkeye45

its likely that an even more extreme group will take over.

Why do you say that?

[piercehawkeye45]

Two reasons, one history, the other is social conditions.

History of Israeli resistant groups:
PLO -> Fatah -> Hamas

Each group more extreme than the last

Social Conditions:
As of now, there have been over 500 deaths in Gaza, 200 of them being civilians. A blockade on Gaza by Israel is leaving very few medical supplies and is one of possible reasons behind the rockets fired by Hamas.

As more civilians die, see family members and neighbors die or get injured, get hungry, go without medical supplies and electricity for extended periods of time, the anti-Israeli feeling will grow even further and allow for a more extreme resistance group to take over.


Have you seen the Dark Knight classicman? This analogy can be applied to both Palestine and Israel. As both sides get pushed and feels like they are being trapped, they will go to more and more extremes to rid themselves of the situation.

[classicman]

Yeh I saw it, thought it was a terrible movie too.

At some point they gotta realize that isn't the way to go. Israel, for all its faults isn't going anywhere and they gotta get used to it.

[Undertoad]

47 devastating seconds... devastates your post at 0:40. Required viewing.

[piercehawkeye45]

Originally Posted by classicman

At some point they gotta realize that isn't the way to go. Israel, for all its faults isn't going anywhere and they gotta get used to it.

Did you read the article I posted Classicman?

Let's talk a bit about Hamas' leadership. It seems that they had very little to gain by resuming the rocket attacks on Israel when the cease-fire ended. Are they under pressure to be even more militant than they are? Or is this almost a suicidal wish at work?

Their radicalism serves them well in Palestinian politics. The radicalism within Hamas has become attractive to the Palestinians who support Hamas. If Hamas would not be radical, it would be like Fatah, which it does not want to become. I think that what has happened ---and it is something we perennially misread about Palestinian politics --- is that this is not some sort of suicidal thing, but there was pressure building within the Gaza Strip to do something about the crippling siege that the Israelis had imposed on Gaza. The cease-fire was supposed to allow more goods to enter the Gaza Strip. It happened to some extent, but not as fully as the people there would like. Resistance is a core part of Hamas' world view. In fact that is the meaning of its name, the Islamic Resistance Movement. This garners support for them among Palestinians.

If you read Palestinian press reports or talk to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip who have been under siege for quite some time, they say "Well, we are not necessarily supportive of Hamas, but we have to do something to convince the Israelis that we won't be put under siege like this, that we won't be driven off of our land," and that's essentially why Hamas let the cease-fire lapse and didn't demonstrate a tremendous interest in renewing it. Just as there is a political struggle going on in Israel, there is a struggle going on between Hamas and Mahmoud Abbas, the Fatah leader who is president of the Palestinian Authority. The way Palestinian factions demonstrate their nationalist bona fides is often in these violent responses to the Israelis.

See how both Hamas and the population supporting Hamas are reactionary. That goes with what I have been saying this entire time. Both sides are working on the defensive, which means it isn't as simple as "realize that this isn't the way to go. Israel, for all its faults isn't going anywhere and they gotta get used to".

Originally Posted by Undertoad

47 devastating seconds... devastates your post at 0:40. Required viewing.

What did this prove? It proved that one Palestinian child, who we have no history of, thinks Hamas is at fault. It wouldn't be hard to find quotes of Jewish Israelis that find Israel at fault either. This topic will hold views from all over the spectrum and it would not be surprising at all to find that some Palestinians are against Hamas and some Israelis are against Israel. If you could find a report of the majority of Gazans thinking that Hamas is at fault, then it would devastate my post, but not one out of the millions that live in Gaza.

Take a look at this Undertoad:

“May God exterminate Hamas!” she screamed, in a curse rarely heard these days. In this conflict, many Palestinians praise Hamas as resisters

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/05/wo...html?ref=world

[DanaC]

Israel has a right to defend itself. It does not havea right to rain down death, destruction and overwhelming might upon a subject and physically trapped populace.

I suspect the British news reports on this are very different to the American news reports. From the reports I have seen, Hamas represents a relatively minor threat to Israel, in terms of rockets launched. The level of response is out of all proportion with the level of threat. There is seemingly little to no effort made to avoid civilian casualties and indeed some evidence that non-civilians are being targetted (such as the two young boys who were killed whilst playing on the supposedly safer roof top of a known safe house (a house where children and women hole up for the duration.)

I have a friend/colleague who is over there at the moment. She and her group are there trying to offer humanitarian aid and moral support to the Palestinians. Her group includes Christians, Moslems and Jews. She's been over there many times and brought back video coverage of some of her earlier experiences.

Having seen some of the footage she captured last time, and heard her stories and the stories of other people who've been there (including last month my good friend L) the only surprise to me is that the Palestinians ever put down their weapons at all.