Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

[xoxoxoBruce]

This guy survived...



And the forecast...

CDC June 12th, 2020

~This week CDC received 17 individual national forecasts.

~This week’s national ensemble forecast suggests that there will likely be between 124,000 and 140,000 total reported COVID-19 deaths by July 4th.

~The state-level ensemble forecasts suggest that the number of new deaths over the next four weeks in Arizona, Arkansas, Hawaii, North Carolina, Utah, and Vermont will likely exceed the number reported over the last four weeks. For other states, the number of new deaths is expected to be similar or decrease slightly compared to the previous four weeks.

[Luce]

So, it turns out that having a real estate agent/politician prescribe medicine isn't really the best option.

https://apnews.com/33f67f8aa5ef2280215087f8e5364017

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. regulators on Monday revoked emergency authorization for malaria drugs promoted by President Donald Trump for treating COVID-19 amid growing evidence they don’t work and could cause serious side effects.

The Food and Drug Administration said the drugs hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine are unlikely to be effective in treating the coronavirus. Citing reports of heart complications, the FDA said the drugs’ unproven benefits “do not outweigh the known and potential risks.”

The decades-old drugs, also prescribed for lupus and rheumatoid arthritis, can cause heart rhythm problems, severely low blood pressure and muscle or nerve damage.

[Griff]

Kinda makes you wonder about Commander Bonespur's diminishing capacity.

[BigV]

Originally Posted by Griff

Kinda makes you wonder about Commander Bonespur's diminishing capacity.

If only.

I do not wonder.

I feel those that support him also do not wonder.

I'm certain our confident conclusions are 180° apart.

[sexobon]

I heard a cosmetics manufacturer is coming out with a line of makeup that's highly facemask resistant. I don't know which one; but, their slogan will supposedly be: Uneasy, Wheezy, Wretchedly - COVIDGIRL.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Neener neener neener...

[Griff]

They've had a series of breeches. They are looking at their quarantine implementation.

[Clodfobble]

A good article from a top epidemiologist about our realistic outlook.

Some choice quotes:

So the bottom-line message here is that this virus is going to keep transmitting to others until it hits that 60 or 70% level. And even then, it’s like a plane at 30,000 feet when the pilot announces we’re going to be dropping for landing. It doesn’t just suddenly land, it’ll just slow down... So it would not be unreasonable to say based on what I just shared with you with 100,000 deaths for 5% of the population infected, that somewhere between 800,000 and 1.6 million people could easily die from this over the course of the next 12 to 18 months if we don’t have a successful vaccine.

There are over 120 vaccine candidates being evaluated right now. But to go to the heart of your question, will any of them make it in the goal? We don’t know... You may not be able to develop what we call durable immunity that lasts a long time. That would be a real challenge, because then you’d have to keep re-vaccinating people if that would even work. The final piece is safety... There’s also an immune enhancement phenomena where your body goes out of whack in terms of immune response. And so, one of the things that we are having to look at very carefully is the safety of these vaccines... The idea that we’re going to have a readily available vaccine by the end of this year is just not realistic.

I think one of the things we have to understand is we can’t just lockdown. I look at this with two guardrails. On one side is a guardrail where we are locked down for 18 months to try to get us all to a vaccine without anyone having to get infected or die. We will destroy not just the economy but society as we know that if we try to do that. The other guardrail is to just let it go and see what happens. We will see the kinds of deaths we just talked about and we will see healthcare systems that will literally implode... And so we’ve got to thread the rope through the needle in the middle... Those are the kinds of discussions we need to have now. If we’re not going to lock up and we’re not going to open up willy-nilly, then what is the approach? And what we’ve been trying to do is facilitate those very discussions so that people can make hard choices. What are the things that we can do to change society that will help us maintain society to the best we know but at the same time also reduce transmission? That’s a key activity right now that public health needs to be playing a very important role in.

[Griff]

In that light masks look to be a big deal.

https://www.pnas.org/node/931542.ful...Z6_Jq3eUlfn0x8

Our results show that the airborne transmission route is highly virulent and dominant for the spread of COVID-19. The mitigation measures are discernable from the trends of the pandemic. Our analysis reveals that the difference with and without mandated face covering represents the determinant in shaping the trends of the pandemic. This protective measure significantly reduces the number of infections. Other mitigation measures, such as social distancing implemented in the United States, are insufficient by themselves in protecting the public. Our work also highlights the necessity that sound science is essential in decision-making for the current and future public health pandemics.

[xoxoxoBruce]

It's very hard for folks in Shitkicker MT or NM that don't know anyone who has died or even gotten sick from it to dismiss the constant barrage of conspiracy theories on the net.

[DanaC]

Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce

It's very hard for folks in Shitkicker MT or NM that don't know anyone who has died or even gotten sick from it to dismiss the constant barrage of conspiracy theories on the net.

Good point.

It's also very easy to dismiss people as fools for believing conspiracy theories, but if you are exposed to enough of it, often coming from sources you trust (family and friends retweeting bogus shit they've been fooled by and of course, ya know, Fox) while simultaneously seeing what appears to be the collapse of legitimate journalism (the President of the United States calling out fake media) - you will more than likely start to view these things less critically and be more accepting of a general sense of suspicion and worry.

[Griff]

I have a cousin closer to NYC whose wife is increasingly frustrated by the conspiracy whack jobs in our family. Our county will likely be the last rural county in PA to go green because we've murdered a bunch of nursing home folks with our shitty attitudes. We're just far enough from NYC to believe we're safe.

[Clodfobble]

Fun fact I learned yesterday: if you call the paramedics for a completely non-COVID reason, they will stand on your porch arguing for 5 minutes that you should carry the patient downstairs to them so that they don't have to enter your home. I get that they have a hard job right now, but Jesus fucking Christ.

[xoxoxoBruce]

If their clothing (protective gear) is contaminated they'd bring it into your house. If your house is contaminated then they and their equipment gets soiled.
And it's not like they charge thousands of dollars. Oh, they do.

Besides, you just have to drag grandma down the stairs not up. Oh wait, you gave her a room in the basement? Bummer.

[Gravdigr]

Originally Posted by Clodfobble

Fun fact I learned yesterday: if you call the paramedics for a completely non-COVID reason, they will stand on your porch arguing for 5 minutes that you should carry the patient downstairs to them so that they don't have to enter your home. I get that they have a hard job right now, but Jesus fucking Christ.

I hope you learned this second-hand...