the iran deal

[henry quirk]

I’m time-pressed (I’m always friggin’ time-pressed) so I haven’t paid the attention I could or should to events.

Question: Is there anything in the agreement prohibiting Iran from using the sanction relief (100 to 150 billion) to buy a ready-made atomic (and delivery system)?

[Undertoad]

I think it very doubtful that the State Department would author an agreement with a loophole they couldn't see, but we could, just off the top of our heads. The expectation is that they use the money for their own expansionist dreams and fund the worst people in the world to project their regional power. The chess move is guessing this is the least worst possibility.

Also, one nuke is not a strategy to accomplish anything. You set it off, and then what? That was your last move. Act two, two weeks later, you and your government are wiped off the face of the earth. Two weeks later same goes for the folks who sold it to you.

[henry quirk]

What you say is reasonable.

I'm just not sure 'any' of the powers that be 'are' reasonable.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Hopefully it would spur the regional enemies of Iran to get their shit together and cooperate to a stable stalemate... but I doubt it.

[xoxoxoBruce]

A couple opinions...
Here

Ezra Klein: Let’s start with the basic question. Is this a good deal or a bad deal?

Ian Bremmer: It’s a close call, no question. I don’t expect the Iranians are going to hold firm on their commitments. I think the arbitration mechanisms will be challenging. And I think our colleagues in the P5+1 will be more flexible with the Iranians than we will be. So over six or 12 months I think we’ll have a lot of fights over this.

But I accept Obama’s argument that the alternative to this deal was worse for the United States. It’s not that I thought we were going to head for military conflict, but it was going to be difficult for the Americans to maintain the same level of sanctions that we presently have. The Americans would have been blamed by not just Iran, but the Russians and the Chinese, maybe by some others, and so the strong international sanctions that we’ve worked so hard to build over so many years would have eroded. You would have had the worst possible scenario, where the Iranians were not subject to any international inspections or strictures but they were starting to get out from under the tough sanctions regime anyway.

And here

Max Fisher: Why is this a good deal?

Jeffrey Lewis: It's a good deal because it slows down their nuclear program — which they say is for civilian purposes but could be used to make a bomb, and which we think was originally intended to make a bomb. And it puts monitoring and verification measures in place that mean if they try to build a bomb, we're very likely to find out, and to do so with enough time that we have options to do something about it.

There's a verifiable gap between their bomb option and an actual bomb. That's why it's a good deal.

[Undertoad]

Originally Posted by Undertoad

The expectation is that they use the money for their own expansionist dreams and fund the worst people in the world to project their regional power.

They didn't even wait until the deal was done.

Boosted by nuke deal, Iran ups funding to Hezbollah, Hamas

Since the deal was signed, Iran has significantly increased its financial support for two of the largest terror groups in the region that have become political players, Hamas and Hezbollah. In the years before the deal was signed, the crippling sanctions limited this support, which had significantly diminished along with Iran’s economy. But Tehran’s belief that tens, or hundreds, of billions of dollars will flow into the country in the coming years as a result of sanctions relief has led to a decision to boost the cash flow to these terror organizations.

The article goes on to say that they are funding the Hamas military directly and have "frozen out" Hamas political leader Khaled Mashaal. It suggests this happened because he met with the Saudis.

(moving this thread to current events)

[xoxoxoBruce]

Maybe the increased funding is making up for backing down from the west on the nukes. You know, to keep Iran in the radical's good graces, and keep Iran from becoming one of the targets.