Perspective on the US from an expat working in China

[slang]

I strongly disagree that the notion of tipping is crap!

And....

Yes, China is coming. Don't be fearful though. Because there is nothing at this point that you can do to improve our performance or hinder theirs.

Besides that, they are pretty interesting and friendly people.

Until their navy gets up to speed anyway

The strangest thing of the whole idea of Asia developing is that no one in the US has a real clue what that means for Asia and the US.

Maybe it's just denial.

[Riddil]

Wow, I'm pretty surprised too that I wasn't roasted for my comments. I was sure there were a few opinions that would certainly rile a few people the wrong way. The strongest reaction I got was for my tipping complaint. Not too shabby overall.

But, before I seem too negative about the family thing... I also think that the family structure is changing as a part of necessity. 100's of years ago the life expectancy wasn't very stable. You NEEDED a strong family because if the harvest was bad this year, or your dad suddenly caught the plague then you had to fall back on your extended family just to survive. That's no longer the reality in the modern world.

Also, divorce is a culturally new phenomenon. With the onset of divorce you get REALLY confusing family structures, and step-kids and step-parents aren't ever fully integrated into their new extended families.

I think it's a reality of prosperity and changing times. While I think it's GREAT there are still stories like Aliantha's, the reality is that it's not a common story any more.

So, it may be a little sad for nostalgic reasons, but I still think it's the future. I'm sure in 50 years the Chinese system will mimic the American family. And it's being helped along with the current out-of-control relocation that's going on in China as families splinter and move all over the country to find the best factory to work in.

My point wasn't to say we need to fix it... rather we need to accept the reality that "family values" is something we've moved away from, and in most cases we count ourselves lucky if the immediate family structure isn't in tatters.

Better to accept the reality, than to listen to another politician's sound-bite for how they are "defending American family values".

Pfft.

[Riddil]

Oh, and Slang, I TOTALLY disagree with you about the idea that, "China is coming and there's nothing we can do about it"... (well, I also disagree about the tipping thing, but *shrug*)

I hate speaking in metaphors... but... This really follows a sports metaphor. Just 30 years ago the US was the biggest, baddest team in town. It's parallel to what would happen if your local college basketball team came out and started playing all the High School teams in the area. They'd crush everyone without trying. Occasionally there'd be a close game, but in the end it always ends in victory.

Actually, I don't need to speak metaphorically... this is EXACTLY what happened to the US Olympic basketball team. We used to send our pro's and laugh at the rest of the world as we waltzed to a gold medal. Last time we had to fight to come away with a bronze.

What's true for basketball is also true for business. They're both competition. If you don't pay attention to what your competition is doing you get trounced. It's a defeatist attitude to say, "I guess the rest of the world is getting better. We're just going to lose sometimes. Ah well."

But that's my point overall... American's have, in general, a defeatist attitude. Or if you think "defeatist" is too strong, you can say it's "too accepting" of an attitude.

To be a winner you can't have the mentality, "sometimes everyone wins. I hope it's my turn this time."... you need to be hungry. So while American students are home playing Xbox, Chinese and Japanese students are going to the 2nd session schools. While Asian school systems are finding ways to make the curriculum harder and harder, the American system is finding ways to pad the grades even more, and include more fluff subjects.

Yeah, America won't crumble and fall. But Rome didn't fall in a day either. What's in our future is to become the next England. Everyone knows where we are on the map, and everyone thinks we have funny sounding accents, but we'll be side-lined as the rest of the world calls the shots.

[ZenGum]

On the slacker syndrome, there is another aspect of it which occurred to me after posting. Many people in the west are starting to feel that they have "enough" material wealth, and extra effort is not best put into working more so as to earn and accumulate more. Rather, a greater return is gained from increasing leisure time.
I believe the trendy word for this is down-shifting. I think it is part of the reason for westerners being in general less motivated than others.
When was the last time that westerners faced widespread hunger? The great depression? and before that? Ages ago. We haven't even had a seriously threatening war for 60 years. We've become complacent.
By comparison, China in particular has had many periods of shortage, famine and internal war in the last hundred years. Things are good now but the culture still carries the urgency of the hard times. I think this also explains part of the difference.

Also some people are just plain lazy. Whatchya gonna do?

[ZenGum]

On families, there is also the matter of the shrinking size of families. Previously, families might easily have six or more children, but now this is pretty much the exception. It is easier to keep bonds with your six (19th C) siblings than with your six (21st C) cousins.
And in the past, you had a lot more cousins, too. If you had, say, 30, even if you were in fairly close touch with 10 or so, thats still a big network.
I have one brother, three cousins, two niece/nephews, two step niece/nephews, three step-step nephews ... but I'm only in regular touch with the first on this list. The others are just too distant (socio-psychologically) to feel connected to.

Which brings me back to China. I know the one-child policy is not enforced uniformly, but many people do end up having just one child. These children of course have no siblings, and will have no siblings-in-law. The next generation will have no cousins or aunts or uncles. As Riddil notes, Chinese society has very strong family ties, and also I believe that a lot of Chinese business is done through family connections. I wonder what will become of Chinese society when the long term effects of the one-child policy begin to bite. Any guesses anyone?

[slang]

Originally Posted by Riddil

It's a defeatist attitude to say, "I guess the rest of the world is getting better. We're just going to lose sometimes. Ah well."

First I'd like to say that the mad face for the tipping comment was a joke. I thought it was very funny and laughed for some time after making the post.

What I was trying to do was a part of what the "problem" is here in the US, not taking on the real problems and instead looking at the totally insignificant as a distraction. Even to the point of getting passionate about those insignifcant things.

As for not being able to do anything about China catching up, there isn't much that can be done about the other guy's drive to win the game. If the numbers were even close I'd say....maybe we can beat em'. That's not what I'm thinking now though.

What we need, IMO, is not to beat them at this game but to invent a better game and them beat them at that. The Chinese are surely hungry now and probably will be for many years to come. That's a great thing for them collectively because they have worked for many years to make the gains made in the past 15 years or so. Now they have so much momentum that only they can stop themselves by crashing the machine from within.

What does that mean?

It's not my training or study of societies but I'm guessing that they will fall through the same evolution that the west has. They work, they build, they have more than they need, they get complacent, they decline.

You can tell me how much better life is in the US than in China, I don't know. I'm not talking about the slivers of very rich but for the masses. What percentage of the people are flat broke? How many millions of people would do anything to get ahead? To have a life that is just a fraction of what the middle has here now?

It's my opinion that we arent going to affect that tide of people power in the least. How many Chinese are there? How many Americans ( and I'll say westerners )? The numbers are too great. We need to innovate to the new situation. To create better business arrangements. To scrap or seriously alter those ways that things are done here in the US right now. To re-think learning and working and all productive pursuits.

Not easy, no. We're the God damned United States of effing America for God's sake, we are the innovators! When these times hit the US we come up with better solutions ( for those that accept the new ways ).

I do believe that we'll do well as things get more competetive but not using the "America is the only country in the world" template. Our ways are inefficient and illogical and yet the machine of change here is too slow to compensate for the times.

We need to find different ways to have advantage. Ways that may not even be in the US but may work at making money for Americans.

What are the rules? What are "they" doing? What obstacles do we have? What are the laws, the regs, the methods? How can we outgrow them? How can we invent a better game that we can win at?

It's not a great explaination but that's what I'm looking at. Don't try to beat them, try to come up with a way to work with them that we win ( and they win too ). That's probably not going to happen with a "cookie cutter" old style US company.

[ZenGum]

The history of China, like very many other places, shows a pattern.
Some lean and hungry (usually nomadic) barbarians burst into an old, corrupt, decaying empire, trounce the demoralized armies, establish themselves as the new elite, and after a few generations of energy, lose their vitality to the seductive pleasures of the courtly life. The people become resentful or apathetic, the emperor indolent, indulgent and isolated, the barons squabble among themselves ... then the hoof-beats are heard coming across the border once more.

And so I smile a little every time I see a fat Chinese person. You're getting soft and luxurious, I think to myself. You're no longer lean and hungry. You've got enough to get by and you've got enough to lose that you won't try anything reckless or desperate. You may outdo me in business but you're not going to nuke the world in an ideological rage. I can share a planet with people like this.

[lookout123]

i don't care to argue any of you points as there is some validity to each. i will, however, share a little thought that one of my analysts dropped on me a while back.

do you remember in 1998 and 1999 and everyone was convinced that the economy had changed and we were breaking new ground? profits and products didn't matter as much and ideas and potential? upward and onward was inevitable? do you remember how everyone was excited about the potential for careers and companies focussed exclusively on technology? Do you remember how much more excited and enthusiastic as tech jobs started paying more and more in the buildup to January 1st, 2000?

What happened on January 2nd? A lot of the enthrallment with that world and paradigm dissolved because reality had set back in. a new year had come and the world didn't end. tech jobs were just that - tech jobs. many of the guys who had uprooted their families and bet the farm on the potential of the field were devastated when suddenly they weren't so highly valued in the market place. the big important day had come and gone and it left us with only reality. guys who used to make $25/hour who then got $125/hour were suddenly back to $35/hour. companies folded. careers and families disrupted.

Anyway, there has been an awful lot of money flooding into chinese investments. institutional money. emerging markets funds. a lot of you in your 401K's. Look at the number of regional/sector funds and ETF's have popped up. China is full of growth, growth, growth. everything is getting prettier and prettier.

I wonder is there some reason that the Chinese government might want to polish the exterior? Is there some event set to take place in the near future? Is there some date down the road that is going to center the world's attention on China? Do you think all of the investment will continue well past such and important time period?

I can tell you this - and i don't bank on predictions, but i ca promise you that i will be watching the flow of institutional money in that region starting in March of '08.

[slang]

Originally Posted by lookout123

...I wonder is there some reason that the Chinese government might want to polish the exterior? Is there some event set to take place in the near future? .

Something other than the 2008 Olympics?

The Chinese government sees the games as a chance for China to highlight its economic rise and emergence as a world power