Perspective on the US from an expat working in China

[Riddil]

Oh, and Slang, I TOTALLY disagree with you about the idea that, "China is coming and there's nothing we can do about it"... (well, I also disagree about the tipping thing, but *shrug*)

I hate speaking in metaphors... but... This really follows a sports metaphor. Just 30 years ago the US was the biggest, baddest team in town. It's parallel to what would happen if your local college basketball team came out and started playing all the High School teams in the area. They'd crush everyone without trying. Occasionally there'd be a close game, but in the end it always ends in victory.

Actually, I don't need to speak metaphorically... this is EXACTLY what happened to the US Olympic basketball team. We used to send our pro's and laugh at the rest of the world as we waltzed to a gold medal. Last time we had to fight to come away with a bronze.

What's true for basketball is also true for business. They're both competition. If you don't pay attention to what your competition is doing you get trounced. It's a defeatist attitude to say, "I guess the rest of the world is getting better. We're just going to lose sometimes. Ah well."

But that's my point overall... American's have, in general, a defeatist attitude. Or if you think "defeatist" is too strong, you can say it's "too accepting" of an attitude.

To be a winner you can't have the mentality, "sometimes everyone wins. I hope it's my turn this time."... you need to be hungry. So while American students are home playing Xbox, Chinese and Japanese students are going to the 2nd session schools. While Asian school systems are finding ways to make the curriculum harder and harder, the American system is finding ways to pad the grades even more, and include more fluff subjects.

Yeah, America won't crumble and fall. But Rome didn't fall in a day either. What's in our future is to become the next England. Everyone knows where we are on the map, and everyone thinks we have funny sounding accents, but we'll be side-lined as the rest of the world calls the shots.

[ZenGum]

On the slacker syndrome, there is another aspect of it which occurred to me after posting. Many people in the west are starting to feel that they have "enough" material wealth, and extra effort is not best put into working more so as to earn and accumulate more. Rather, a greater return is gained from increasing leisure time.
I believe the trendy word for this is down-shifting. I think it is part of the reason for westerners being in general less motivated than others.
When was the last time that westerners faced widespread hunger? The great depression? and before that? Ages ago. We haven't even had a seriously threatening war for 60 years. We've become complacent.
By comparison, China in particular has had many periods of shortage, famine and internal war in the last hundred years. Things are good now but the culture still carries the urgency of the hard times. I think this also explains part of the difference.

Also some people are just plain lazy. Whatchya gonna do?

[ZenGum]

On families, there is also the matter of the shrinking size of families. Previously, families might easily have six or more children, but now this is pretty much the exception. It is easier to keep bonds with your six (19th C) siblings than with your six (21st C) cousins.
And in the past, you had a lot more cousins, too. If you had, say, 30, even if you were in fairly close touch with 10 or so, thats still a big network.
I have one brother, three cousins, two niece/nephews, two step niece/nephews, three step-step nephews ... but I'm only in regular touch with the first on this list. The others are just too distant (socio-psychologically) to feel connected to.

Which brings me back to China. I know the one-child policy is not enforced uniformly, but many people do end up having just one child. These children of course have no siblings, and will have no siblings-in-law. The next generation will have no cousins or aunts or uncles. As Riddil notes, Chinese society has very strong family ties, and also I believe that a lot of Chinese business is done through family connections. I wonder what will become of Chinese society when the long term effects of the one-child policy begin to bite. Any guesses anyone?

[slang]

Originally Posted by Riddil

It's a defeatist attitude to say, "I guess the rest of the world is getting better. We're just going to lose sometimes. Ah well."

First I'd like to say that the mad face for the tipping comment was a joke. I thought it was very funny and laughed for some time after making the post.

What I was trying to do was a part of what the "problem" is here in the US, not taking on the real problems and instead looking at the totally insignificant as a distraction. Even to the point of getting passionate about those insignifcant things.

As for not being able to do anything about China catching up, there isn't much that can be done about the other guy's drive to win the game. If the numbers were even close I'd say....maybe we can beat em'. That's not what I'm thinking now though.

What we need, IMO, is not to beat them at this game but to invent a better game and them beat them at that. The Chinese are surely hungry now and probably will be for many years to come. That's a great thing for them collectively because they have worked for many years to make the gains made in the past 15 years or so. Now they have so much momentum that only they can stop themselves by crashing the machine from within.

What does that mean?

It's not my training or study of societies but I'm guessing that they will fall through the same evolution that the west has. They work, they build, they have more than they need, they get complacent, they decline.

You can tell me how much better life is in the US than in China, I don't know. I'm not talking about the slivers of very rich but for the masses. What percentage of the people are flat broke? How many millions of people would do anything to get ahead? To have a life that is just a fraction of what the middle has here now?

It's my opinion that we arent going to affect that tide of people power in the least. How many Chinese are there? How many Americans ( and I'll say westerners )? The numbers are too great. We need to innovate to the new situation. To create better business arrangements. To scrap or seriously alter those ways that things are done here in the US right now. To re-think learning and working and all productive pursuits.

Not easy, no. We're the God damned United States of effing America for God's sake, we are the innovators! When these times hit the US we come up with better solutions ( for those that accept the new ways ).

I do believe that we'll do well as things get more competetive but not using the "America is the only country in the world" template. Our ways are inefficient and illogical and yet the machine of change here is too slow to compensate for the times.

We need to find different ways to have advantage. Ways that may not even be in the US but may work at making money for Americans.

What are the rules? What are "they" doing? What obstacles do we have? What are the laws, the regs, the methods? How can we outgrow them? How can we invent a better game that we can win at?

It's not a great explaination but that's what I'm looking at. Don't try to beat them, try to come up with a way to work with them that we win ( and they win too ). That's probably not going to happen with a "cookie cutter" old style US company.

[ZenGum]

The history of China, like very many other places, shows a pattern.
Some lean and hungry (usually nomadic) barbarians burst into an old, corrupt, decaying empire, trounce the demoralized armies, establish themselves as the new elite, and after a few generations of energy, lose their vitality to the seductive pleasures of the courtly life. The people become resentful or apathetic, the emperor indolent, indulgent and isolated, the barons squabble among themselves ... then the hoof-beats are heard coming across the border once more.

And so I smile a little every time I see a fat Chinese person. You're getting soft and luxurious, I think to myself. You're no longer lean and hungry. You've got enough to get by and you've got enough to lose that you won't try anything reckless or desperate. You may outdo me in business but you're not going to nuke the world in an ideological rage. I can share a planet with people like this.

[lookout123]

i don't care to argue any of you points as there is some validity to each. i will, however, share a little thought that one of my analysts dropped on me a while back.

do you remember in 1998 and 1999 and everyone was convinced that the economy had changed and we were breaking new ground? profits and products didn't matter as much and ideas and potential? upward and onward was inevitable? do you remember how everyone was excited about the potential for careers and companies focussed exclusively on technology? Do you remember how much more excited and enthusiastic as tech jobs started paying more and more in the buildup to January 1st, 2000?

What happened on January 2nd? A lot of the enthrallment with that world and paradigm dissolved because reality had set back in. a new year had come and the world didn't end. tech jobs were just that - tech jobs. many of the guys who had uprooted their families and bet the farm on the potential of the field were devastated when suddenly they weren't so highly valued in the market place. the big important day had come and gone and it left us with only reality. guys who used to make $25/hour who then got $125/hour were suddenly back to $35/hour. companies folded. careers and families disrupted.

Anyway, there has been an awful lot of money flooding into chinese investments. institutional money. emerging markets funds. a lot of you in your 401K's. Look at the number of regional/sector funds and ETF's have popped up. China is full of growth, growth, growth. everything is getting prettier and prettier.

I wonder is there some reason that the Chinese government might want to polish the exterior? Is there some event set to take place in the near future? Is there some date down the road that is going to center the world's attention on China? Do you think all of the investment will continue well past such and important time period?

I can tell you this - and i don't bank on predictions, but i ca promise you that i will be watching the flow of institutional money in that region starting in March of '08.

[slang]

Originally Posted by lookout123

...I wonder is there some reason that the Chinese government might want to polish the exterior? Is there some event set to take place in the near future? .

Something other than the 2008 Olympics?

The Chinese government sees the games as a chance for China to highlight its economic rise and emergence as a world power

[Riddil]

Heh, I knew it'd happen eventually, someone would accuse me of being a "China-lover", and accuse me of hating America. Funny, because it's the farthest thing from the truth. Trust me... wait til you read my write-up analyzing life in China.

My original post in this thread wasn't any commentary about life in China, it was totally about the US. Yeah, China has problems. MANY more problems than the US. But that doesn't mean they're not a threat.

And Slang, on your come-back post, I 100% agree with you. There's nothing we can do to stop the Chinese from their own push to get ahead, but we CAN change the game to make sure we stay ahead. Good point, well said.

ZenGum... EXCELLENT point about complacency. I'm actually getting to that point in life myself. I'm tired of the long days and big demands at work, and I'm contemplating shifting to a lower position to actually get to spend more time with my family, even if it means scaling back on lifestyle.

The interesting side-effect of that though... is if culturally we all say, "well, I guess we've accumulated enough", then we may get left behind in the future. I've never seen this theory anywhere else, but, here goes my brand new concept on why America had such a meteoric rise...

In Europe in the 1800's people felt they pretty much "had it good enough". Democracy was spreading, rampant wars were subsiding, the grip of the church was lessening, illness was less of a factor...

And the result was they became complacent. Life was pretty well balanced, they COULD do a little more work to get more out of life, but what was the point?

And then the US bounced along, sat on top of some pretty fantastical innovations in the 1900s, and launched to the head of the class. You even look at Europe... in the 1900s they had substantial manufacturing capabilities, even beyond what the US had. Yet it was still the grand ol' USofA that became #1, even though they had the added challenge of being so far away from Europe making it tougher to import / export goods. If, at the same time, any European culture would have had the same level of raw materials resources and the same culture of hard-work to get ahead, then maybe that country would be the sole world power today. But it didn't happen (Germany threatened, but failed), so today it's only the US, all because of two things: innovation, and hard-work mentality.

It's an interesting theory to consider... the main new idea in there for me is the point about a culture "accepting their position in life", and not pushing on for more-more-more. And in turn, that becomes the factor that puts them at the biggest disadvantage when suddenly you find yourself in the future, and what once was considered a good salary isn't even enough to buy you a vacation on Venus, or a even get you a decent clone-body to transplant your brain.

Interesting stuff.

[slang]

There are a few questions that I have for both you and ZG. This question came to me today after talking with some of the neighbors.


Zen and Riddil:

Do people there ( each respective location ).....

* - Seem to want to be friends, if only for the novelty of having a foreign pal and what doors that might open for them both in country and what I may be able to do for them in your country

* - Seem to sincerely want to be friends and offer their attention just as they would to anyone else there.

* - Seem genuinely friendly but don't approach me outside of my professional environment. They don't invite me "out for beers" ( or rice or whatever )

* - Seem wholely uninterested in me as person but are very interested in what I'm doing here.

* - Seem hostile in some way but without any type of personal gaff or confrontation initiating that hostility. They don't like _____'s and I am one of them.


My circumstances here in the Philippines are a bit different than both of yours. I've essentially set up home here and work long and hard in the US for 6 or so months and then come back here. Back and forth I go.

Most of the people that have access to me are family and people in this neihborhood. They are all pinoys ( with 2 exceptions, Chinese nationals ) and everyone is very curious to know why I'm here. This is not the tourist area. White people don't come here. It's not clean and comfortable.

Many people here like to chat with me and I'm more than happy to do this. Many also like to sing with the videokey ( which I personally don't like but often do anyway ).

Some people are very defensive when we first meet because they expect me to challenge them in some way or domineer over them. It's not long that they even out and just relax around me. At that point we can either find things in common that we like and spend time together or not. Just like anyone else on the planet I suppose.

Sure, there are those that ask a lot of very personal money questions, either joking or seriously, and they generally stop coming around because I'm not a rich man, not an important man in the US and am truly here to relax and learn about this place. Once they see that I'm not pounding my chest telling them how rich and important that I am, they assume that I can't or wont make their dreams come true, whatever they may be.

For the most part though, with very few exceptions, the people here are extremely friendly and helpful. There is no pressure here for me though and I'm the world's nicest guy.

So I'm curious as to what your experiences have been, ZenGum and Riddil. I'm guessing that they are not at all like mine here in Manila but I'll allow you to tell as much or little as you wish.