We've been Learning about Birth'n Hurricanes

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East coast and gulf coast sea surface temperatures have remains low compared to last year. NJ (east coast) ocean temperature dropped to 59 degrees (15 c) durng the 1st week of August. Demonstrated below, storms from Africa (that breed hurricanes) have shifted to a more southern track across S America. That means no storms in the Caribbean to breed hurricanes.

Meanwhile, the eastern Pacific is now into a ninth tropical depression - this one called Hector.

However currently in the upper left corner, about 200 miles away from "South of the Border" is a potential tropical storm.

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Warm sea surface temperatures that dominated 2005 have not existed this year. However Ernesto has a track that could take it over recently warm Gulf waters. Had the previous predicted track taken Ernesto west of Cuba, the it probably would be stronger. But the current prediction over more of Cuba means a less strength storm. Still the predicted track will contact water well over 85 degrees F (brown colored areas) up the FL west coast.

Considering how its predicted track keeps moving east, Ernesto may end up on FL east coast where waters are cooler and where the track sends it longer over land and diminished by Cuba's mountains:

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On 31 August (Thursday), two storms had rolled off of Africa. The leftmost of these two is now expected to become hurricane Florence on Friday, 8 September as it travels north of Puerto Rico and the Bahamas. Its projected curve appears to roll up the American east coast but well out to sea.

Meanwhile, over in the eastern Pacific, the 11th tropical storm formed while the 10th one at one point became a category 3 hurricane (John). Pacific Ocean is taking our hurricanes this year. Many head for San Diego but never get there. Boring hurricane season.

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Of those two 31 Aug storms, the second one also intensified to become Gordon. As the hurricane season winds down (and most storms past across Central America to become something like 12 Eastern Pacific tropical storms), we have this ninth Atlantic storm and an unusual comment from an NHC forecaster:

I DID NOT MAKE ISAAC A HURRICANE BECAUSE THE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE CENTER IS NOT VERY STRONG AT THE TIME OF THIS ADVISORY...BUT I WAS VERY TEMPTED. A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE CYCLONE SHOWED A FEW VECTORS OF 60 KNOTS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...I AM NOT SURE IF THESE VECTOR ARE REPRESENTATIVE OR NOT OF THE INTENSITY OF ISAAC...SINCE THERE IS ALWAYS A LOT OF GOOD DEBATE ABOUT THE SUBJECT AMONG THE QUIKSCAT EXPERTS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE ONLY 5 KNOTS ABOVE THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AND I AM NOT GOING TO ARGUE OVER 5 KNOTS. SO LET'S USE THE VECTORS AND INCREASE THE WINDS TO 60 KNOTS. UNANIMOUSLY...ALL INTENSITY MODELS BRING ISAAC TO HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE OCEAN COOLS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

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It was an extremely active and destructive hurricane season throughout the world. But the Atlantic coast only saw maybe 10 tropical storms. This year, storm tracks took a more southern path across northern South America. Therefore the Pacific coast now has its 19th hurricane - Sergio. This is the second hurricane just this month (November).

Western Pacific also suffered numerous hurricanes including multiple strikes to Tiawan, one on Hong Kong, etc. Long since lost the number but the western Pacfic suffered multiple category 5 hurricanes this year. It was an extremely active hurricane season. Unites States residents got lucky this year. Sergio:

[Hippikos]

It´s the Global Warming