Global Warmists back off on prediction

[xoxoxoBruce]

Lot of Canadians on the list, are you sure they aren't trying to fool us so Canada will thaw out?
I wonder if Bluesdave knows Dr David Evans?

[bluesdave]

Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce

I wonder if Bluesdave knows Dr David Evans?

I know of him, but do not know him. He is a very smart guy, but not trained in climate research. You have to be careful when people with PhDs speak outside of their training. We have a tendency to think that because we have achieved a doctorate, that means we know everything. We don't.

David is quite correct when he says that the whole climate change debate has been hijacked by politicians. Several of us in my old project eventually came to the conclusion that we would never win the battle to convince the public. I always pushed the argument that it was better to sell the public on the benefits of cleaning up the environment, rather than throwing figures and graphs around, that were only going to confuse people. My point was that regardless whether man really is having an effect on the rate of climate change, it can only help the planet, and hence us, if we reduce pollution.

I am really worried about what is happening in China and India. It will be interesting to see how the Olympics go in 2008. The images of Beijing that I have seen, send chills down my spine.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Being hijacked not only by politicians, but charlatans and hucksters that prey on people who don't understand anything passed the headlines. Sure, people are subject to being scammed because they haven't delved into the story behind the headlines, but that doesn't excuse the scammers.

In fairness to the general public, we've dug into it pretty deeply here, in several threads, and still haven't been able to find definitive answers. There is a lot of opposing, subjective, conclusions, and conflicting data.

It's pretty well agreed that the Earth is warming up. I see no debate there, but why, how far it will warm, what the consequences will be and what we can do about it, are being debated.

Your position of, cleaning up can't hurt, is probably true. But I feel an organized effort, encompassing cost/benefit considerations, is the best way to attack the pollution problem. Unfortunately that requires government intervention, which scares most people because of the government's history of being inept and squandering resources.... not to mention full scale charges in the wrong direction.

China/India are indeed scary, just because of the scale and speed they are fouling the water, air and land. The long running, runaway, underground coal seam fires in northern China, probably spew out more pollution than most countries.

[bluesdave]

I have participated a few times in some of those threads, Bruce, if you remember. I tried to point out that it is impossible to design an experiment that will prove man's contribution to climate change. As you point out, there are conflicting "experts", and inconsistent data. I can only speak from my experience and the data we have collected. It becomes a pointless exercise repeating the same message over and over again, to the same audience. That is why I have not participated in every thread on the subject.

Climate change is like a religion. People believe what they want to believe, and others manipulate it for their own profit, or power.

[xoxoxoBruce]

I'm convinced you believe what you say to be the truth, to the best of your knowledge. And you are a genuine scientist, with no apparent axe to grind.
You've contributed a great deal of light, in threads with an abundance of speculation, guessing, hearsay and heat. You even asked your boss to shed some light.

But like you said yourself, there's a lot of conflicting stories and people giving answers that have no clue, or worse, an ulterior motive. I've got questions, as you well know. Nothing tricky, just plain old questions most everyone has. Unfortunately, questions are much easier to form than answers.

The other night on the TV news they were talking about a new computer model predicting a 10 degree increase in temperature and the very next day I hear another story. If the people that know the most don't don't agree, what are we mere mortals to think.... or believe?

Although I'm sure it's frustrating for you, please don't take my skepticism personally. I'm pretty frustrated too.


Oh, and bluesdave... don't let my skepticism dissuade you from preaching to the lurkers, you've got board creds.

[TheMercenary]

Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce

China/India are indeed scary, just because of the scale and speed they are fouling the water, air and land. The long running, runaway, underground coal seam fires in northern China, probably spew out more pollution than most countries.

And that is why we should never sign Kyoto.