Bush's Shrinking Safety Zone

[tw]

From the Washington Post of 26 Jun 2007:

A GOP Plan To Oust Cheney
The big question right now among Republicans is how to remove Vice President Cheney from office. Even before this week's blockbuster series in The Post, discontent in Republican ranks was rising.

As the reputed architect of the war in Iraq, Cheney is viewed as toxic, and as the administration's leading proponent of an attack on Iran, he is seen as dangerous. As long as he remains vice president, according to this thinking, he has the potential to drag down every member of the party -- including the presidential nominee -- in next year's elections. ...

Today, another group of party elders, led by Sen. John Warner of Virginia, could well do the same. They could act out of concern for our country's plummeting reputation throughout the world, particularly in the Middle East.

Let's look at the Middle East. Under George Jr, the Oslo Accords were destroyed and the Intafada II expanded to war all over Palestine and even into the most northern cities of Lebanon. Under George Jr, Iraq that was probably on the verge of an Orange or Rose revolution, instead was put into Civil War with democracy no longer considered possible. Many (without a political agenda) now believe Iraq with become a theorcratic dictatorship dominated by Shia.

And Afghanistan that was justified by 11 September. More than 50% of the country has now fallen back into Taliban hands since "America does not do nation building". We all know the genius who repeatedly stated that violation of Military Science 101.

Meanwhile Iran that once had a strong reformist movement is now a bastion of wacko extremists. That key turning point was the famous "Axis of Evil" speech based in a political agenda; listing countries that were a threat to no one.

Pakistan is now under threat of Islamic extremism and rattles nuclear weapons. India is being exempted from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty - a treaty setup specifically to stop what India is doing.

Turkey is talking about invasion of Kurdistan. Somolia is now only peaceful when Islamic extremists control the country. And the US keeps sending multiple carrier task forces with amphibious task force to threaten ... well we still don't know who Cheney want to attack next.

As scholar after scholar have noted - today it was Robert Dallek, a presidental historian who just published Nixon and Kissinger - everything in the Middle East that this administration has touched is now a disaster. Show me one success. There are none. Zero. Dallek said this noting the similarities between Nixon's Vietnam and George Jr's Iraq. Virutally everyone without a political agenda notes both events are so extremely similar; complete with the rhetoric.

"If we don't stop them there, then they will attack us here." Some in the Cellar also foolishly advocated that nonsense claim in 2003. Same thing in Nam was called the Domino Theory. Deja vue Nam. You would think Cheney et al had learned from history. No wonder top Republicans would love to execute a coup.

Do you know how bad Iraq has become? It is even worse. Republicans Lugar, Warner, and others want Cheney out.

Gen David Patraeus recently said Americans may be in Iraq for another 9 or 10 years. Patraeus is correct if we continue this Cheney doctrine. No wonder top Republican Senators have been so angry for so long. No wonder they fed George Jr only peanut-butter and jelly sandwiches.

[Urbane Guerrilla]

The Domino Theory was validated by the results, even if the results did not go as far as was feared at the time: China, North Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and South Vietnam all fell to communism. That is the validation of the Domino Theory, and only the maddest of cranks dispute it.

Thailand had the societal integrity not to fall to communism, and Burma -- well, didn't need to, by anyone's lights. It deteriorated into its present basket case condition through its own mismanagement.

That the Domino Theory is now going in reverse as these nations recover from communism is a pleasant surprise.

Now we have tw to tell us the sky is everywhere falling. It's certainly not going to stay propped up if the likes of tw are in charge, busily trying to lose us the war. Phooey to the lot of them.

[xoxoxoBruce]

China & North Vietnam were already red states.

[Griff]

tw - Please don't use Dallek as a source. His cheerleading for Democrat imperial Presidencies helped lead to our present difficulties.

[tw]

Originally Posted by Urbane Guerrilla

The Domino Theory was validated by the results, even if the results did not go as far as was feared at the time: China, North Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and South Vietnam all fell to communism.

China and Cambodia are now doing quite well without America imposing wars in their region. Vietnam is the second fastest growing economy is East Asia. Laos is something like the 35th fastest growing economy in the world. Clearly they are doing worse since Americans stopped spending $million a day on war there – according to history as rewritten by Urbane Guerrilla.

Funny how those Domino fell mostly better for their people – which Urbane Guerrilla forgets to learn.

Urban Guerrilla again rewrites history for a political agenda. Since George Jr said it, then Urbane Guerrilla also knows we are winning “Mission Accomplished” – the war that was supposidely won 4 years ago. Did Urbane Guerrilla forget that reality – or rewrite it. Urbane Guerrilla was an enlisted man 1st class for twenty years. Therefore he knows more than everyone about basic military principles and history. Clearly the military genius Urbane Guerrilla must rewrite history so that we will not be deceived by reality.

UG - you make this too easy. Can't you at least show some imagination when you rewrite history?

[TheMercenary]

An individual countries rank in growth rate is not a measure of the health of their economies nor how well their people are doing over all in relation to growth.

[Urbane Guerrilla]

Here you see tw's delusional mental masturbation in its full glory. Foolish tw, have you never noticed that no one applauds your perorations?? And did you notice my speaking of the reversed domino effect hardly more than a paragraph down?

[Urbane Guerrilla]

Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce

China & North Vietnam were already red states.

These were the first two dominoes: 1949 and 1954. Remember there was some undercurrent of blame-gaming over "who lost China" for many years.

[tw]

From the BBC of 9 Jul 2007:

US Iraq chief warns of long war
The head of US forces in Iraq, Lt Gen David Petraeus, has told the BBC that fighting the insurgency is a "long term endeavour" which could take decades.

In less time, the United States built arm forces almost from scratch, fought wars on almost every continent, and won all those wars. In more time, the Iraqis still don't have an useful Army? It says so much about a leadership (and his supporters even here in the Cellar) who are so much in denial AND who cannot even define a strategic objective.

... Gen Petraeus's efforts, which might have saved the day for the Bush administration if they had been introduced three, or even two, years ago, may well have come too late.

People who actually support the troops have been saying that for how long? "Mission Accomplished"? There was no insurgence until America created one. That even defined by lessons in any first year course in Military Science.

Are we finally seeing light at the end of a tunnel? Depends on whether we threaten Cheney with impeachment or support the troops by implementing what those with minimal knowledge understood as the only viable solution - Iraq Study Group.

Notice how extremists among us avoid any mention of that ISG report and its withdrawal. Same people also fear to touch the other damning questions - "When do we go after bin Laden?"

[yesman065]

Pretty selective quotes there tw - I see its the "same ole same ole" with you.

How bout these two from the same article?
"In the last few weeks US forces have captured two big insurgent centres, Ramadi and Baquba, which was the main stronghold of al-Qaeda."

"In Baghdad for example, June was the lowest month for sectarian deaths in a year."

[piercehawkeye45]

That statistic doesn't have much merit though.

The month of May had the largest amount of civilian deaths since the war began.

The number of civilians killed in Iraq jumped to nearly 2,000 in May, the highest monthly toll since the start of a U.S.-backed security crackdown in February, according to figures released on Saturday.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/COL241131.htm

There was a drop in June, but what does that mean? Since there was a spike in May it is hard to believe that the deaths are going to be consistent and many deaths many be going unreported.

However, the figures cannot be verified independently, and many deaths are believed to go unreported.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/mid...st/6260084.stm

Then, if you look at the recent news, you will find that some of the most deadly days of the war have occurred during the last few days.

June 8 - Estimated 150 dead.
July 7 - Estimated 73 - 105 dead.

(List of US Casualties by month and other stats)

I find it really hard to believe that anything is progressing in Iraq.

[tw]

Originally Posted by yesman065

How bout these two from the same article?
"In the last few weeks US forces have captured two big insurgent centres, Ramadi and Baquba, which was the main stronghold of al-Qaeda."

Well, Yesman065. Had you been learning from so many military sources posted here, then you can tell us the significance of those 'captures' of towns that were not even 'occupied by the enemy' last year.

You tell me. What is the strategic significance of that capture? And why, after that capture, does Gen Petraeus talk about decades of military operations? Do you really think that is coincidence?

Yesman065 - you clearly thought your quote was significant. Good. Fill us with your wisdom. Your post must have grasp of why Gen Petraeus has expanded his quote from nine years to decades. Show us how you somehow know something beyond what military experts and even Gen Petraeus are warning. Please tell us why your quote is so significant because you know what you have quoted - a detail - is so more important. Tell us why the 'cature' of two towns in a province that once had no warfare is now an example of "Mission Accomplished"?

Little hint. Your reply must explain the difference between a tactical and strategic objective. Be very careful in your answer to that question: What is the strategic signficiant of that capture?

[tw]

Originally Posted by yesman065

"In Baghdad for example, June was the lowest month for sectarian deaths in a year."

Body counts were also a measure used to prove we were winning the war in Nam. If you first learn some basic Military Science concepts, then you knew body counts have little relationship to accomplishing a strategic objective.

In Nam, America killed everyone in N Vietnam three times over. What did that prove? It proves that those grasping for something to show progress will even be foolish enough to use body counts as a measure of strategic accomplishement.

Meanwhile, what do 'biblical' philosphies of guerrilla warfare dictate in response to a conventional army offensive? Did you not learn that so well proven concept of guerrilla warfare? Did you not hear quotes directly citing American frustration in every Nam era movie - ie 'Full Metal Jacket', 'Platoon', etc? Did you just watch those movies for entertainment - or learn from the fundamental points that explained why America was defeated in Nam?

Yesman065 - only fools would make the same 'body count' mistake performed even in Nam. But again, it goes right back to a simple question. What is the strategic objective of Americans in "Misson Accomplished"? Why do so many now retired Generals keep saying that America has no strategic objective in Iraq? Or do you also ignore the most important point in those reports?

Body counts. There is little relationship between victory in a battle and body counts. So Westmoreland rationalized that Nam was a completely different war - did not conform to basic military doctrine. Therefore Westmoreland who measured battles by body counts was decisively defeated. Yesman065 - you know have lessons of history to learn from - and still you look at body counts? Somehow you are trying to say Iraq is somehow becoming safer? These are a long list of damning question that Yesman065 will have to ignore. Yesman065 - prove me wrong.

[Urbane Guerrilla]

Tw's setting up quite the straw man here with his peroration about body counts. He thinks we don't know better than to use body count to assess anything!

It is these poor choices of argument that suggest to me tw is severely wanting in political acumen and talent. Too, we can also rest in confident expectation that tw will disgrace himself, through a want of common sense and an overdeveloped penchant for rhetoric.

[piercehawkeye45]

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...MPLATE=DEFAULT (this link will probably run out by tomorrow, 7/11/07)

A progress report on Iraq will conclude that the U.S.-backed government in Baghdad has not met any of its targets for political, economic and other reforms, speeding up the Bush administration's reckoning on what to do next, a U.S. official said Monday.

Some say it is still early to determine what is happening and we should wait until September but we have to start looking at alternatives now.