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#76 |
trying hard to be a better person
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Brisbane, Australia
Posts: 16,493
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Maybe the fact that the government needs to get involved proves there are more stupid people out there affecting the economy than you might think.
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Kind words are the music of the world. F. W. Faber |
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#77 | |
Read? I only know how to write.
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 11,933
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Why do stock markets exist? Trading of stocks on the street, as in Radar's model, never works. Stocks need a controlled environment (NASDAQ, LSE, the Frankfort Exchange, etc) because stock exchanges only work in the safe and well defined environment of regulated exchanges. Radar says none of the world stock markets need exist. We don't need brokers. We don't need regulations and laws. We don't need all that bureacracy. The problem with this Radar world: stock markets exist because those standards, control and regulation are necessary. Without regulations of markets, then anarchy would reign. There is a fine line between too much regulation and insufficient regulation. So we have numerous financial instruments with various types of regulation. But in every case, some regulation and laws are always required. No way around that imposed 'level playing field' to make free market economies work. |
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#78 | |
Read? I only know how to write.
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 11,933
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There are too many homes and not enough people to lease these homes. Appreciate the problem. Lower income people - where so many of these loans exist - have been living well beyond their means. Is this problem that people are going homeless? For the most part - no. Too many homes are now in this mess; too much product and not enough consumers. A mess that remain ignored while more money games masked the problem. Too many people in debt for so long that it is even appearing on spread sheets many years later. Don't fool yourself. Spread sheets only report what was happening many years ago. Should we now bring in government welfare to further mask this problem? Ridiculous is an idea that government will solve a financial problem. Government was already doing that years ago with money games that only made these problems worse. When money games and excessively low interest rates were not enough, then private industry played more money games: sub-prime loans and complex financial instruments. Home equity loans - borrowing money on home prices that were inflated by those money games and sub-prime loans. Meanwhile, everyone ignored the factor that spread sheets cannot measure – risk. Too many homes, too many Americans (at this income level) with massive debts, and America that was spending recklessly at 10% more than incomes (which also means no savings). Aliantha wants government to magically solve all this? Put homes up for massively reduced prices. Yes, private investors will buy then and rent them at lower leases. Few are willing to do this. Even at reduced prices, few are willing to risk more capital because, well, where is a market? Aliantha suggests government to, again, fix this market? More damage? Take these homes away from finance companies under martial law? Fine. A government already deeply in debt, going $hundreds billions further into debt, rewarding the companies who only made this problem worse with welfare, and then become landlord of still vacant homes. At what point do we end up with more Bronx slums that take decades to solve? At what point do we turn neighborhoods into 'the projects'? Problem is not homeless people. But if we do as Aliantha suggests, then economics takes revenge years later - making many more homeless people. The problem is too many houses built for people who never had incomes to support them. Problem agrevated by an economy where the rich are getting richers and everyone else have a lower income. Problem created by the same government policies that Aliantha would further expand? What financial problem will government solve with financial welfare? What Aliantha recommends creates more inflation AND real estate dependent on government (rather than private industry) while still looking for tenants who just do not exist. Meantime, when does the actual problem get addressed? Never forget why too many homes exist. To make a recessionary economy look good, government dumped money into the housing market using low interest rates, tax games, etc. Government made things worse. When that still was not enough, then finance companies mortgaged those people further with sub-prime loans. Mortgaged more homeowners with home equity loans as homes values were inflated by those money games. Eventually we ended up with too many homes, an economy fully in recession if not for money being dumped into housing, and now Americans who are even poorer. It was the cover page of The Economist. A falling brick labeled housing prices. Worse, add the threat of stagflation, in part, due to these money games. Make this worse by having government step in, dump more money into an economy already under threat of inflation, and create another 'housing market' money game? This is what bankruptcy does. Solve problems at the source. Same thing saved Chrysler and Ford. Gerald Ford (according to the NY Post) told New York City to 'Drop Dead'. As a result, NYC eliminated and fixed their money games. Why? Threat of bankructcy was the only reason every problem was solved. Every one asked for government welfare and (thank goodness) did not get it. Threat of bankruptcy finally killed off money games. Let economics take revenge on an economy that has been lying to itself for four and more years. Too many houses and not enough people with incomes to support those homes. The sooner economic pains are addressed, then the less that pain will be long term, AND the faster private industry can solve this liquidity crisis. Maybe if America was not spending $2billion every month on "Mission Accomplished", then the economy might have funds to minimize this problem without creating more inflation and other money games. Even bridge maintenance is being reduced. Let's not forget the brunt of an inevitable $1+trillion outstanding debt to pay for "Mission Accomplished". We have yet to see the damage created by money games played even in 2002. "Reagan said deficits don't matter". Deja vue Nam. Money games in the late 1960s and early 70s to coverup a financial disaster and a war that cost $1million per day (as Nixon lied about the war and its costs) meant stagflation in the late 70s, masssive reduction of American standards of living, and everything worse. How to avoid reliving history? People responsible for irresponsible money games - homeowners and financial firms - must suffer the consequences. Last edited by tw; 11-10-2007 at 10:06 PM. |
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#79 | |||||
trying hard to be a better person
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Brisbane, Australia
Posts: 16,493
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I ask you, why would you not try to keep people in a better situation? If someone has to spend money one way or another, why not do so in a productive manner which will help all concerned. If you leave a house untennanted for a year, you're losing $5k/annum straight up. Then there are the issues of vandalism. More dollars to spend. Neighbourhood values depreciating because there are too many houses vacant. Yeah, I can see how people who borrow beyond their means are stupid and don't deserve a hand out, but they're your fellow citizens. They don't deserve to be kicked when they're down either. If you wanted to send in a private company to do buy ups of these massive numbers of homes, fine. Go ahead, but remember if this happens, there is no chance of these people from poorer circumstances to close the gap. If you want to preach about the gap between rich and poor widening tw, you should really think your argument over a bit more before you post it. You propose doing nothing? Letting the economy slump. Perhaps reach depression type lows just for the sake of saying 'fuck you Bush'? Radar suggests doing nothing because those stupid people deserve what they got. Neither of those suggestions seem to be logical to me. They seem highly emotional responses to an economic puzzle.
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Kind words are the music of the world. F. W. Faber Last edited by Aliantha; 11-10-2007 at 10:47 PM. |
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#80 | |
Constitutional Scholar
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Ocala, FL
Posts: 4,006
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Markets would exist without any regulation at all. They would be organized, held to standards, and regulated privately. We would still have brokers, and traders, etc. because most people would feel more confident trading stocks with these people than with a guy trading stock certificates from the trunk of his car. What would the problem be with going to a store on the street to buy stocks? I don't see one. Without government intervention the playing field is always level. It's government that makes things unfair and tilts the playing field. Government regulations allow politically influential businesses to gain an unfair advantage over new start-ups or prevents new businesses from starting up at all.
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"I'm completely in favor of the separation of Church and State. My idea is that these two institutions screw us up enough on their own, so both of them together is certain death." - George Carlin |
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#81 | |||
Constitutional Scholar
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Ocala, FL
Posts: 4,006
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Expecting them to live with the consequences of their decisions without having their "fellow citizens" pay for it is not kicking them when they are down. When they lose their house, someone else will snap it up at a better price.
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"I'm completely in favor of the separation of Church and State. My idea is that these two institutions screw us up enough on their own, so both of them together is certain death." - George Carlin |
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#82 | |
trying hard to be a better person
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Brisbane, Australia
Posts: 16,493
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The whole point is that if an economy is not growing - regardless of how slowly which of course is generally preferable to rapid growth - then it's slumping. If the economy slumps because of massive slumps in the housing industry, particularly the US economy, the whole world suffers. This is the reason for my interest in this problem. Ultimately, it's your country and you and your fellow citizens will do what you want without consideration for how those actions affect the rest of the world (seemingly), but people from other countries will definitely be affected by what is happening in your country right now.
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Kind words are the music of the world. F. W. Faber |
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#83 | |
Read? I only know how to write.
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 11,933
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Welcome to the conundrum of why a liquidity crisis exists. Your logic assumes no liquidity crisis. Your post makes the same mistake that bond rating agencies made - measure risk only in terms of capital. Too many homes can exist AND prices remain inflated. Many cannot sell their home for what it is really worth. Why? Liquidity crisis. Please appreciate the difference between capital and liquidity. Appreciate why so many financial experts making $hundreds of thousands annually also did not grasp the concept. A problem that should have been obvious four years ago when this problem actually existed. Numerous options exist for homeowners. Hold properties in hope prices might rise, or earn enough money by doing two jobs for five years to pay off their loans, or get enough money (liquidity) to eventually sell at a loss, or just suffer through bankruptcy, or ... numerous options. But the only acceptable options also must be painful for years. Emotion or empathy only makes reality worse. No way around this reality: economics takes revenge when we solve money games with more money games, as you have advocated. That pain is good and necessary. Not in the short term. But the responsible person is only concerned about 10 years from now. How many obvious examples do you need - including NYC, Ford, and Chrysler? Or Baring, Northern Rock, AT&T, IBM, Apple Computer, Enron ... The music industry in denial for so many years needs some horrific threats of bankruptcy. Almost nobody is going homeless. They are now living in two bedroom apartments or living in post WWII densities. They are suffering in 1000 or 1700 square foot homes. Good. Still living quite well but suffering a severe reduction in living standards because of their mismanagement. What is the proactive action? Learn from history. As Gerald Ford is paraphrased to NYC - "Drop Dead". That is the proactive situation; the best solution. Anything else is classic bleeding heart liberalism that Urbane Guerrilla so criticizes AND actually rewards the wrong people. Who would prosper most from your solution? The rich financial houses that created this mess by playing money games so that their failures stayed off spread sheets for maybe four years. You want to reward them with government welfare? Why were the seventies so bad? Rather than address the problem, we did bleeding heart solutions. Nixon used price controls. Gerald Ford even distributed campaign badges that said WIN. (Whip Inflation Now). Therefore stagflation only got worse. Everyone suffered even more. What did we do to finally fix the American economy? Interest rates went to 14% and 22%. Only then did the American factory worker stop getting poorer. How can this be? Raising interest rates on everyone that high make everyone's life miserable. Of course. We all suffered. Our economy had been playing money games to mask lies from top government and industry criminals. It took 20+% interest rates to create enough pain; finally fix the economy. Welcome to what we knew was coming when some here instead mocked The Economist for what was obvious. Best thing that can happen to those who were not fiscally responsible? Five tough financial years where household budgets are made daily. Anything less would have meant even destruction of Ford and Chrysler - everything sold to fiscally responsible foreigners. It takes something that vicious to educate even our so called financial geniuses who make big bucks by playing money games rather than doing things productive. They go by titles such as stock brokers, bond traders, and equity analysts. It is only a liquidity crisis; not a capital crisis. Shame on anyone who treats it like an accident by recommending welfare. Like car crashes, this liquidity crisis is directly traceable to human brains that must witness or suffer pain before they decide to learn. That sometimes means five years working two or three jobs. Bankruptcy threat must be that vicious to change mindsets. Would you rather wait for people to actually become homeless? This liquidity crisis is almost trivial; will be solved in only a few years IF we don't aggrevate it with corporate welfare. Aliantha, your solution would only be corporate welfare to those who created this problem by not doing their jobs. Your solution would mostly enrich those finance firms. |
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#84 |
trying hard to be a better person
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Brisbane, Australia
Posts: 16,493
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Well again, I wouldn't involve a finance company.
And with regard to market value of homes. The market sets the value. You may want $30000 more than someone is willing to pay for it, but if that's all people will pay, then that's what it's worth.
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Kind words are the music of the world. F. W. Faber |
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#85 | |
Read? I only know how to write.
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 11,933
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If stock markets could exist without regulations, then nobody needs a stock market. All trading would be on the street. Why do stock markets create so much trading and capital investment? To repeat what you avoid: because without those regulations, then stock trading will halt due to the anarchy. If what you are saying had any truth, then all stock markets would fail completely. Stock markets would have no purpose. Why do stock markets exist? Why do commodity exchanges exist? Because productive trading cannot exist without regulations - a standard, level, safe, and predictable trading floor (virtual or real). Anarchy (also called widespread criminal activity) would create near zero trading. The only reason stock, bond, commodity, etc markets exist is because that is where the regulations exist and are enforced. Even the private markets demand certain government regulations so that their trading is secure, honest, and liquid. Name one trading exchange that exists without government regulation? Smuggling? What happens when smuggling markets become legal - conform to laws? Trading increases. Everyone is wealthier. People stop getting shot down in the streets. Name that market that thrives better due to zero regulations? It does not exist. If you knew markets would be better with zero regulations, then why do you not list 100 of them? Because they do not exist. A certain amount of regulation always results in a more productive and profitable market. |
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#86 | |
Read? I only know how to write.
Join Date: Jan 2001
Posts: 11,933
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But everything you have suggested can and must involve those finance companies. Who is the at the center of these problems? Who holds those defaulted properties? Who prosper most if these defaults are removed from their books? Everything you have posted is corporate welfare for the most irresponsible financial institutions.
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My $200,000 home is now worth $100,000. But I cannot sell it for $100,000 since my mortgage is $150,000. I cannot pay my mortgage, cannot sell my house for market value, and my neighbors are in the same position. To sell my home would make me homeless. My home must sell for $150,000 because of a liquidity crisis. I have no choice. Either that or bankruptcy. The market value is only $100,000. But it cannot be sold at that price. Again. Liquidity crisis. Please stop using economic concepts (law of price and demand) that assume no liquidity crisis. Stop making the same assumptions that those big shot finance experts also made to create this problem. Those simplistic economic rules of supply and demand are based in assumptions that do not exist here. Again, I keep using the word because your posts ignore its significance - liquidity. |
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#87 | ||
trying hard to be a better person
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Brisbane, Australia
Posts: 16,493
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It's very simple really, and creates a lot of jobs in the process. Quote:
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Kind words are the music of the world. F. W. Faber |
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#88 |
We have to go back, Kate!
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Yorkshire
Posts: 25,964
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Shame is all well and good but it doesn't stop people being made homeless.
I couldn't give a rats behind for who's at fault. What concerns me is the social cost of largescale repossessions. Yesterday morning I visited a constituent. Her husband was laid off work. When you are in rented accomodation and unemployed the benefits system will assist you with rent. If you own your house, however, the benefits system will not assist you to maintain your asset. They put the house on the market but the recent slump in our area means they were not able to sell. They were also not able to keep up with the mortgage payments and on the 1st of this month their house was repossessed and they were evicted. Now this woman, her husband, their 13 year old son and 17 year old daughter are all living at a friend's house. It's a one bedroom terrace, in which lives their friend, her partner and a teenage son on the sofa. There are now seven people living in a one bedroom house. They keep trying to bid for association (ex-council) housing on the open letting system...but when more than one person bids, the winner is decided by points...points which increase with length of time on the list. This family stand no chance of getting a house through that system for about 6 months. Though the benefits system will assist with rent, they do not cover moving expenses, downpayments and deposits. Since pretty much all their meagre savings went on trying to stave off the repossession of their home, they cannot pay those costs and are therefore unable to take on a private tenancy. They've been offered hostel places, which would break up the family and have them living in different towns. Their son would have a journey of several miles to get to school. The husband has worked his whole life, since the age of 16. She used to work but was forced into inactivity by ill-health. It could be argued that they bought too much house, given the lack of fall-back should the worst occur. They had a three bedroom house in a cheap part of town. Not exactly greedy. Again, I don't really care about the moral dimension of credit. All I care about is that there are seven people living in a one bedroom house, and a family in crisis because the raft they built wasn't strong enough to weather the storm. |
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#89 | ||
Radical Centrist
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Cottage of Prussia
Posts: 31,423
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I am very thankful they decided to loan me money. Of course before they did they sent out their guy to look at my place and my neighborhood and put a value on it. Quote:
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#90 | |||||
Constitutional Scholar
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Ocala, FL
Posts: 4,006
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Again, entirely false. Most people don't want to buy or sell stock with a guy working from the trunk of his car. They want to work with reputable businesses. Quote:
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Farmer's Markets, Computer Fairs, Swap Meets, etc. Also, remember that not having government regulations is not the same as being unregulated. Self-regulation in the markets is what is called for. Government regulations CREATE uncertainty, unfairness, etc. in the markets.
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"I'm completely in favor of the separation of Church and State. My idea is that these two institutions screw us up enough on their own, so both of them together is certain death." - George Carlin |
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