Betting tips

[W.HI.P]

Latest results....

Juventus 1-0 AS Roma ..........WIN = 2.20

[Mac_The_Handicapper]

W.HI.P nice call on the Juventus game...

But Baseball Season is right around the corner, and there has been some major transactions this off season Dontrelle Willis to Detoit, Johan Santana to the Mets, San Diego picked up Randy Wolf (Lol, I thought you'd like that) I want your opinions and analysis on how the divisions are gonna break down this year.

Also Fantasy season is just around the corner my friend, drop me an email and we'll discuss that.

[W.HI.P]

Thx my friend!

is a
Detroit's isn't that big either.
I'm no fan of Johan, but it is a huge pick up for the Mets, and it makes them the clear favorites from the National league.
My full analysis for the MLB will come just before the price changes.

As far as fantasy is concerned.
My Moonspirit alias who has never lost an NHL league, is in a 2 horse race to win this years winner's league.
That would be my #1 priority at this time as my opponent is elite!

I do intend on taking this years drafts very seriously.
Be advised that things have changed.
The SS position has become weak. You have to pick one up in the first 2 rounds.
3rd base is as weak as last year, draft early!
Brian Roberts again looks like the bargain of the year as they have him listed as 4th best, where in reality he is just behind Utley.
As always, 5-6 RP's are key, 4-5 being of the absolute elite.
SP's can wait unless you want to pick up 1 ace, but no more.
Leave 1st base alone... i don't care who you see attractive in the first 7 rounds ...don't touch...let the idiots draft them.

I'll set up a one on one for us if you'd like

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Long term. NHL Conference beting.

Eastern Conference
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Montreal Canadiens : 6.50
The Candiens price looks most attractive at this time
Ottawa at 2.20 is too low at this time, but it may turn out to be a bargain should they pick up Hossa.
The Penguins at 9.00 also looks good, but I think the'll be more of a contender next year.
Atlanta and Washington are at huge prices, and Throwing a few coins at them would be wise given the fact that they're in the weak Eastern Conference, and both look superior to Carolina who leads their division, therefore a #3 rank for one of them, and in the playoffs as a serious contender!

Western Conference
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Anaheim Ducks : 4.50
San Jose Sharks : 9.00

Obviously, the west is where our money should be.
Loads on the Ducks, and a nice cover on the Sharks who seem to be the only team in the NHL that could physically match up with Anaheim when it counts.

[Mac_The_Handicapper]

No Problem buddy,

I still feel Detroit has caught up to Cleveland now. Especially with Verlander 1 year older.

Yep Pedro's back, Santana = Mets taking the NL.

As for hockey, I really think you're underestimating New York, I won't be surprised if they come out of the east.

And as for Fantasy sent me an email and let's get one going, of course the draft would have to be either late at night or on the weekend.

[W.HI.P]

Originally Posted by Mac_The_Handicapper

I still feel Detroit has caught up to Cleveland now. Especially with Verlander 1 year older.

There is no doubt whatsoever that those 2 teams will be in a two horse race till the end in the American Central.

Yep Pedro's back, Santana = Mets taking the NL.

There truly seems to be no competition.

As for hockey, I really think you're underestimating New York, I won't be surprised if they come out of the east.

I know that you mean the Rangers.
Look, given the fact that all teams in the Eastern Conference are weak when in comparision with the Western Conference, I would not be suprised at all to see a very small team competiting in the Eastern Finals.
So... no, I'm not underestimating any team in the Eastern Conference.

My serious money, as you surely know, is in the west(again)

And as for Fantasy sent me an email and let's get one going, of course the draft would have to be either late at night or on the weekend.

My time becomes free for something like that only on March 1st, 2nd and 3rd(Sat,Sun,Mon)

[Mac_The_Handicapper]

I can't disagree with anything you've said.

As for the Draft, Saturday or Sunday would be ideal, I'll leave it to you to set up seeing that you know the best options.

I was thinking the same idea as last time for a little more motivation.

1st
2nd
3rd

Prize amounts.

Email me if you want to discuss details.

[lumberjim]

you've probably seen this in your email, but......

[Chewbaccus]

Originally Posted by W.HI.P

You can't say that.
A player may come along to be far superior than Jordan.

I'm not saying that no one will ever come along and surpass Jordan's accomplishments on the court. My contention is that no one will come along and precisely duplicate what Jordan could do/did. It may be semantics, but when you look at it, once a player reaches an established level of greatness, we refer to them by their own names rather than in comparison to those that came before.

The East in the NBA is weak, though. How can you say that, Celtics aside, the conferences are even when the East has three teams playing sub-.500 basketball going to the playoffs (Washington, New Jersey, Philly)? As it stands right now, to start the playoffs with winning records, WAS would have to go (minimum) 17-13 and NJ / PHI must each go 19-10 down the stretch. Beyond that, only Boston has locked down a winning record against the West for this year (16-0 with 14 more West games left), with Detroit and Cleveland currently better than the West, though nothing's locked down.

Compare that to the West, where all the current playoff teams are playing .600 ball or better, all of them have winning records against the East with two lockdowns (Suns & Lakers), and four others within spitting distance of that feat (Spurs needs one more East win, Utah/Golden State/Houston each need two)

Hockey, there's a little more equivocation since any one given team only plays one game against two of the three divisions in the other conference, so I'm not as confident in the numbers there. But basketball? WHIP, if you see something I don't that could give hope to the East (or, be still my heart, the Professional Basketball Team Formerly Known as the New York Knicks), please share. I implore you.

[W.HI.P]

Originally Posted by Chewbaccus

The East in the NBA is weak, though. How can you say that, Celtics aside, the conferences are even when the East has three teams playing sub-.500 basketball going to the playoffs (Washington, New Jersey, Philly)? As it stands right now, to start the playoffs with winning records, WAS would have to go (minimum) 17-13 and NJ / PHI must each go 19-10 down the stretch. Beyond that, only Boston has locked down a winning record against the West for this year (16-0 with 14 more West games left), with Detroit and Cleveland currently better than the West, though nothing's locked down.

Compare that to the West, where all the current playoff teams are playing .600 ball or better, all of them have winning records against the East with two lockdowns (Suns & Lakers), and four others within spitting distance of that feat (Spurs needs one more East win, Utah/Golden State/Houston each need two)

On the lower scale of things, yes.
look... when it comes to wagering large sums of money, one must consider all things.
The greatest percentage of my money is on the Celtics making it to the Finals.
My next greatest percentage of money is on the Celtics winning it.
The rest would be divided into smaller bets as to cover should the main bet fail.
The western conference is so up in the air that one would be silly to heavily wager on that side.
Look at Dallas now!
Kidd will add a new dimension to what was already an elite team.

Hockey, there's a little more equivocation since any one given team only plays one game against two of the three divisions in the other conference, so I'm not as confident in the numbers there. But basketball? WHIP, if you see something I don't that could give hope to the East (or, be still my heart, the Professional Basketball Team Formerly Known as the New York Knicks), please share. I implore you.

Hope to the east?
The East holds the greatest team in the game at this time.
Even in the NBA, its all about the defence.

Things are not as depressing as they seem in New York.
In 3-4 years, it should start to be visable.

[W.HI.P]

Shalke(Ger) 1-0 Porto(Por)
1 Goal in Portugal should secure it for the Germans

Liverpool(Eng) 2-0 Internazionale(Ita)
Still a game left, no doubt... and in Italy at that.
However, Liverpool has proven time and time again. that it is the greatest representative from England.
Ranked, by far, the #1 English team in this Millennium.

Roma(Ita) 2-1 Real Madrid(Spa)
Roma's win leaves it open in Spain.
As I said before, I will not be suprised at all if Roma pulls it off.

Olympiakos(Gre) 0-0 Chelsea(Eng)

This really is kind of a joke.
It does not matter how it comes in these two legs.
Chelsea will progress!

UEFA CUP
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Bordeaux(Fra) vs Anderlecht(Bel)
1st leg was 1-0 for the Belgians.
A Bordeaux win is extremely likely, given the fact that it is a result that both teams can progress with.
2-1, 3-2 would give it to Anderlecht.
2-0 , 3-0, 3-1 to Bordeaux.
1-0 would force overtime.
Bet on Bordeaux = 1.53

Atletico Madrid(Spa) vs Bolton(Eng)
The Spanish side, is by far superior, and in Madrid.
Not only should Atletico win, but they should also secure a spot in the next round of the Uefa cup.
Bet on Atletico Madrid = 1.50

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Bayern Munich(Ger) vs Aberdeen(Sco)
The German's advance with a win or a 0-0 1-1 tie.
Meaning that come the 80th minute, should it be a tie game, Bayern will most likely not attempt to score.
An unlikely scenario for most who look at this game, but at 6.00 (6/1), a few coins on the draw won't hurt.

............keep in mind, all bets end after 90 minutes.

[W.HI.P]

Arsenal 0-0 AC Milan
Nesta ,Oddo, Maldini, Kaladze the defencive line
Seedorf and Gattuso are 2 of the greatest defencive midfielders in the world.
Defencivly speaking, Milan is of the absolute elite!
Lets not forget Berlusconi.
The Italians will progress.

Fenerbahce 3-2 Sevilla
As I said before, Sevilla is to strong at home, and in this case, all they need is a win. It should come easy.

Celtic 2-3 Barcelona
Good try by the Scott's, but hope has now faded away.

Lyonnais 1-1 Man Utd
Lyon needs to score in England, but they gotta be carefull.
The English have the advantage at this time.
I will be rooting for the French in this one.

[lookout123]

I have to root for man united, just because I need them to stay in this competition for awhile longer. If they can focus solely on premiership title, it will make the run in even harder.

[W.HI.P]

I hate to bust your bubble.
In european countries, although in the fans eyes, the local league is seen as important, European competition is the one and only way to truly judge a team.
The serious European franchises have one concentration for a season.
Uefa leagues.
It is where the greatest representatives of European countries compete againt each other.
Teams are obligated to rest prior to a CL game.
This is why we have so many favorites loosing to small teams, especialy when the CL is coming down to its end.
It is also why teams that finish 3rd and 4th in their local competitions do so well when Europe is watching.
Coef's are carefully considered by high representatives of the sport in each country, bringing fourth interventions prior to CL games.
Interventions that include communications regarding avoiding injuries etc in these small local (Meaningless) challenges.

Very few elite teams(Arsenal, Bayern Munich), seem to run franchises with different priorities.

Here is a way, one can rank the teams of a country.
I'l use England as an example.... how about this year?

Lets say Arsenal win the Premier league.
Chelsea beats Liverpool in the Champions league semi-final.
Milan Beats Chelsea in the Final of the Champions league.

The rankings of 2008 would be:
1)Chelsea
2)Liverpool
3)Arsenal
4)Man Utd

You would feel good about your team winning the premier league, but your team would clearly be behind the 2 superior teams who represented England in the only league that counts.

[lookout123]

That's one way of looking at it, and it certainly makes the most sense from the avenue you approach the sport - wagers. League play wouldn't have the big exciting playoff - the championship game so it would seem less important. But here is the thing - UEFA cups are just that - CUPS. There is a very large dose of luck of the draw thrown in. A team can potentially make it to the final having not played any of the "great" teams. At the same time a great team may be knocked out early on by simply having a bad night. Teams often play different tactics in the tournament because of that risk. It is overly defensive and often fails to produce exciting games. But it is a glamour event and gets a lot of attention.

League play is about quality and consistency. Each team plays every other team twice - home and away. Those that play the best throughout the season rise to the top. There is no chance of a lucky or unlucky draw deciding the title holder. Inevitably a couple of teams of the highest quality end up battling it out over the last few weeks.

Anyway, rankings can be misleading - afterall the US national team rose something like 20 places a couple of years ago without even playing a game during that timeframe.

This is why we have so many favorites loosing to small teams, especialy when the CL is coming down to its end.

This phenomenon makes perfect sense when you realize that the big teams are expected to produce silverware every year. When they get towards the end of the campaign they have to prioritize. Liverpool for instance is never in the running for the League, so they rest players during league games and pin ALL their hopes for glory on the CL.

[W.HI.P]

Originally Posted by lookout123

Teams often play different tactics in the tournament because of that risk. It is overly defensive and often fails to produce exciting games. But it is a glamour event and gets a lot of attention.

On the internet, and in life, I find few who truly examine this sport properly.
This game is about defence.
If you find the Italian style (Italy, AC Milan) of play boring, well you wll be disapointed, because, those are the teams that hold the titles at this time, and those are the teams to beat, as they are the best.
Its their defence that makes them the best.
This sport has changed.
S.american footbal has died, as did the nations who represent that continent.
Europe is where footbal lives, as leagues and nations.

League play is about quality and consistency. Each team plays every other team twice - home and away. Those that play the best throughout the season rise to the top. There is no chance of a lucky or unlucky draw deciding the title holder. Inevitably a couple of teams of the highest quality end up battling it out over the last few weeks.

What I am saying, is that the elite teams in european leagues, are not interested in the title, allowing a smaller team to win it.

In Italy, rarely does the best team, win the campionato.
They really do have their priorities straight in Italy, but then again, politics is involved.
In England, the same thing.
Very rarely do we see the #1 ranked team in England, win he Premiership. Again, its about having priorities straight.
Arsenal would be the only elite team in England who see things differently... of course, we can blame Wenger.
In Greece, lol, Olympiakos wins the league every year, however,its Panathinaikos that has done wonders in Europe.
Reaching CL Semi's and Q-Finals while the greek champion have a 6-23 goal differential in Europe.

This phenomenon makes perfect sense when you realize that the big teams are expected to produce silverware every year. When they get towards the end of the campaign they have to prioritize. Liverpool for instance is never in the running for the League, so they rest players during league games and pin ALL their hopes for glory on the CL.

Reality check!
The success of finishing in the top 4 in England is obtaining a ticket to the Champions league.
1st 2nd 3rd and 4th place, are pretty much the same thing.
Believe me, Franchises do not depend on Winning leagues for the prize money... thats pocket change.
Liverpool have their priorities 100% on the champions league.

Let me give it to you this way.
If Liverpool had Wenger, they would have won all 75% of Premier league titles, yet, they would have not made it to any CL final.

Understand the money aspect of a franchise.
Most money is generated by being on late CL stages.
This exposure and success raises the value of all players involved.
This kind of economical gain outweighs by far any economical success of winning the premier league.