Mother of all Meltdowns

xoxoxoBruce · 02-23-2008, 12:59 AM

Martin Wolf cites Nouriel Roubini, of New York University’s Stern School of Business, predictions for the mother of all economic meltdowns.

Quote:

Recently, Professor Roubini’s scenarios have been dire enough to make the flesh creep. But his thinking deserves to be taken seriously. He first predicted a US recession in July 2006*. At that time, his view was extremely controversial. It is so no longer. Now he states that there is “a rising probability of a ‘catastrophic’ financial and economic outcome”**. The characteristics of this scenario are, he argues: “A vicious circle where a deep recession makes the financial losses more severe and where, in turn, large and growing financial losses and a financial meltdown make the recession even more severe.”

Prof Roubini is even fonder of lists than I am. Here are his 12 – yes, 12 – steps to financial disaster.

Step one is the worst housing recession in US history. House prices will, he says, fall by 20 to 30 per cent from their peak, which would wipe out between $4,000bn and $6,000bn in household wealth. Ten million households will end up with negative equity and so with a huge incentive to put the house keys in the post and depart for greener fields. Many more home-builders will be bankrupted.

Read all twelve steps and you'll want to become an alcoholic.

Griff · 02-23-2008, 08:27 AM

Well this alchy has been reading about the big one for a long time so I'm not overly concerned. Of course I can easily ramp up food production and get an extra couple boxes of ammo...

slang · 02-23-2008, 12:08 PM

This all seems perfectly believable to me.

Griff - Buy more than a few boxes of ammo. Buy a reloader and stockpile components.

If something like this does happen even if you personally are protected the masses of affected people will be difficult to repel.

It's seriously difficult to imagine what this meltdown would look like in real life. Maybe something like after the 1929 crash? Twenty percent of people wandering around looking for work that isn't there?

As much as I'd like to believe that the situation is going to somehow get better, gut feeling says otherwise.

Trilby · 02-23-2008, 12:56 PM

what have I said? Barack, the Anti-Christ, will win and that'll be the start; he'll be in office until 12-21-2012 and then: BAM!

end of the world.com

I hope being a non-Christian won't piss off God. *sighs*

grassy · 02-23-2008, 01:18 PM

Hey? i think it might be the big MELTDOWN? Its been coming for a long long time. Anyway? ever thought of this? How are they going to give the baby boomers their retirement? All that money in their 401k's has already been spent. In theory?Hasnt it? I have been waiting for this since 1996. Obama? the antichrist? could be? It is an interesting time to be alive, just hang onto your hat! cindy

Undertoad · 02-23-2008, 01:57 PM

When apples are popular, sell apples; when pessimism is popular, sell doom.

Quote:

He first predicted a US recession in July 2006. At that time, his view was extremely controversial. It is so no longer.

As we have well noted here, recession is inevitable. Predicting recession is no more interesting than predicting the Summer.

The last round of economists predicting doom happened after Enron and the Andersen accounting scandals. Those predictions were followed by a boom. Go figure.

DanaC · 02-23-2008, 02:09 PM

Quote:

When apples are popular, sell apples; when pessimism is popular, sell doom.

Oh that's beautiful.

Trilby · 02-23-2008, 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DanaC

Oh that's beautiful.

He has a beaUtiful mind!

Undertoad · 02-23-2008, 02:21 PM

thanks D and B!

elSicomoro · 02-23-2008, 06:31 PM

Fuck that...I'm selling pomegranates...they're the next big thing.

Griff · 02-23-2008, 06:32 PM

gd speculator

smoothmoniker · 02-23-2008, 06:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad

Predicting recession is no more interesting than predicting the Summer.

Holy crap, there's gonna be a SUMMER? Why didn't anyone WARN US!

elSicomoro · 02-23-2008, 06:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Griff

gd speculator

Mr. "I'm not buying into the digital TV Conspiracy"

xoxoxoBruce · 02-23-2008, 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Undertoad

When apples are popular, sell apples; when pessimism is popular, sell doom.

Yes, but this guy has laid it out in 12 steps, not vague predictions of doom. It will be easy to follow along and see if he was right or not

richlevy · 02-24-2008, 08:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smoothmoniker

Holy crap, there's gonna be a SUMMER? Why didn't anyone WARN US!

Speak for yourself. I've been hoarding sunscreen and Krugerrands for months.

02-23-2008, 08:27 AM	#2
Griff still says videotape Join Date: Feb 2001 Posts: 26,813	Well this alchy has been reading about the big one for a long time so I'm not overly concerned. Of course I can easily ramp up food production and get an extra couple boxes of ammo... __________________ If you would only recognize that life is hard, things would be so much easier for you. - Louis D. Brandeis

02-23-2008, 01:18 PM	#5
grassy Dog O'Nine Tails Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 20	Hey? Hey? i think it might be the big MELTDOWN? Its been coming for a long long time. Anyway? ever thought of this? How are they going to give the baby boomers their retirement? All that money in their 401k's has already been spent. In theory?Hasnt it? I have been waiting for this since 1996. Obama? the antichrist? could be? It is an interesting time to be alive, just hang onto your hat! cindy

02-23-2008, 06:32 PM	#11
Griff still says videotape Join Date: Feb 2001 Posts: 26,813	gd speculator __________________ If you would only recognize that life is hard, things would be so much easier for you. - Louis D. Brandeis

02-23-2008, 12:08 PM	#3
slang St Petersburg, Florida Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 3,423	This all seems perfectly believable to me. Griff - Buy more than a few boxes of ammo. Buy a reloader and stockpile components. If something like this does happen even if you personally are protected the masses of affected people will be difficult to repel. It's seriously difficult to imagine what this meltdown would look like in real life. Maybe something like after the 1929 crash? Twenty percent of people wandering around looking for work that isn't there? As much as I'd like to believe that the situation is going to somehow get better, gut feeling says otherwise.

02-23-2008, 12:56 PM	#4
Trilby Slattern of the Swail Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 15,654	what have I said? Barack, the Anti-Christ, will win and that'll be the start; he'll be in office until 12-21-2012 and then: BAM! end of the world.com I hope being a non-Christian won't piss off God. sighs

02-23-2008, 02:21 PM	#9
Undertoad Radical Centrist Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Cottage of Prussia Posts: 31,423	thanks D and B!

02-23-2008, 06:31 PM	#10
elSicomoro Person who doesn't update the user title Join Date: Jan 2001 Posts: 12,486	Fuck that...I'm selling pomegranates...they're the next big thing.

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