Mother of all Meltdowns

[grassy]

Hey breif me in on the digital tv conspiracy? There HAS got to be one? ARE you kidding? Hey i waited for the Y2k? I had 24 cans of beef stew, 32 cans of corned beef hash, a generator, batteries even make-up( i'm a female) I was ready. I even had a few gallons of vodka, thinking it would be worth it's weight in gold. The ONLY thing that happened was this: My Y2k novelty HAT, Beeped off two hours early? gees. There you have it. I ate beef stew in a can for years! cindy

[TheMercenary]

Originally Posted by Undertoad

When apples are popular, sell apples; when pessimism is popular, sell doom.

As we have well noted here, recession is inevitable. Predicting recession is no more interesting than predicting the Summer.

The last round of economists predicting doom happened after Enron and the Andersen accounting scandals. Those predictions were followed by a boom. Go figure.

Yea, I don't buy it either. We should focus on our own situations and be sure to get our personal finances in order and the majority of us will come out just fine. Start by reducing your revolving credit and paying off bills.

[DanaC]

Sound advice Merc.

[smoothmoniker]

Merc, you kind of nailed my thoughts on it. I'm mildly curious about the impending recession, but more to guide my investing than out of any sense of dread.

My wife and I lived cheaply, saved everything, have no debt, and are in a pretty good position to buy stock and property when the prices tumble. To achieve this, we had to bite our tongues and smile when friends showed off their new cars, their houses bought with irresponsible credit, had to turn down invitations to go out to sushi, expensive vacations, etc.

This beautiful system of free market capitalism, in the long run, rewards rational behavior and delayed gratification. It punishes, severely, those who through greed or ignorance make ill-consider choices for immediate reward, without considering the long-term consequences.

[lookout123]

i've said it before and i'll say it again. the wealthiest client i have is a retired letter carrier that lived well but responsibly, he invested early and often in whatever amount he could.

[HungLikeJesus]

Originally Posted by smoothmoniker

...

This beautiful system of free market capitalism, in the long run, rewards rational behavior and delayed gratification. It punishes, severely, those who through greed or ignorance make ill-consider choices for immediate reward, without considering the long-term consequences.

But, without those people how would the rest of the system function? If nobody is buying the economy won't be growing.

[barefoot serpent]

Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce

Yes, but this guy has laid it out in 12 steps, not vague predictions of doom. It will be easy to follow along and see if he was right or not

The monolines appear solvent -- for now

Originally Posted by UT

When apples are popular, sell apples; when pessimism is popular, sell doom.

I first read that as persimmons instead of pessimism...

[Aliantha]

I didn't know Obama was the anti-christ. I thought he was just black.

I have to say my catholic upbringing makes me shudder every time I see the word anti-christ (there I go again) even though I know it's not rational.

[deadbeater]

I thought the father of all meltdowns occured when Bush and the Republican party realized that the Democrats in Congress, at least House Democrats, are no longer dough to be kneaded in regards to FISA.

I bet the result will be Warren Buffet buying up the choicest of loans from mortgage companies.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Originally Posted by lookout123

i've said it before and i'll say it again. the wealthiest client i have is a retired letter carrier that lived well but responsibly, he invested early and often in whatever amount he could.

Bah, he was blackmailing all those floozy's on his route.

[tw]

Originally Posted by HungLikeJesus

But, without those people how would the rest of the system function? If nobody is buying the economy won't be growing.

Apply the numbers. According to your theory, if we all buy Jaguars, then the economy grows more. That is confusing cash flow with actual growth. Those who, instead, buy a Toyota create economic growth because their dollar buys more value; says to economic 'powers that be' that we want more productive products. The car need not be replaced so frequently - another factor that creates economic growth.

A previous discussion identified how economies grow verses how they self destruct. We can make more jobs by employing more people in the factory. So we hire more security guards. That increases cash flow (what bean counters confuse as growth). Or we do same factory output with fewer workers every year. Latter results in more jobs in the economy, a wealthier nation, higher standards of living, poverty reduction, etc.

Yes, some still don't get it. By doing the same job with fewer employees every year, then the economy creates more (and more productive) jobs.

Buying more is what bean counters advocate when they "throw money at problems like a grenade". That was a most piercing fact from Ross Perot. Throwing money at something does not solve problems and does not create growth. Worse, throwing money at something only results in economic revenge years later such as inflation, stagflation, lower standards of living, job losses, greater foreign debt, dollar 'downsizing', the selling of America to foreigners, etc.

Solution to growth is not found in 'more junk'. Solution is in getting most value from every dollar. How do you measure value? Well, bean counters assume every dollar is same as value. Therefore bean counters insist that more consumption is always good.

If true, then we could require all homeowners to replace their lawns every other year. According to bean counters, that would create more economic growth.

Sometimes consumption is good; sometimes it is bad. How do we determine which? We use something that cannot be measured on any spread sheet - value. And what creates more value? Innovation. What do bean counters not measure? Innovation. So how do they measure growth? Many confuse cash flow with growth when they cannot even measure or just ignore value.

Those who understand these concepts also immediately grasp what Warren Buffet said so many years ago. The only real tax cut is one that includes spending cuts. Instead we increased spending. That is no different than 'throwing money like a grenade'. We now see the resulting mess created this time in financial institutions that used all that money to enrich themselves with money games - especially sub-prime loans. As these wealthier got richer on money games, the average American has seen his income (adjusted for inflation) diminish every year for the past seven years. But how can this be if cash flow has increased so much in America? Well what have we been buying? More yachts? More Jaguars?

Rather curious that those who have been most critical of this 'growth' are some of America's richest men who are also known for being responsible rather than money greedy. Did you hear them or did you hear the economics promoted by wacko extremists through their mouthpieces (ie Rush Limbaugh)?

[TheMercenary]

Originally Posted by Aliantha

I didn't know Obama was the anti-christ. I thought he was just black.

I have to say my catholic upbringing makes me shudder every time I see the word anti-christ (there I go again) even though I know it's not rational.

Just think..... Damian.