The Obamanation - Page 53

classicman · 09-08-2009, 03:49 PM

I don't know that there is an issue - that was my original point. She seemed to think there was and so did the other person who was "creeped out" by "it." I really didn't get what she was referring to. I shared the article, thats all.

Either way, its better than talking about non-existent death squads... :p

lookout123 · 09-08-2009, 05:16 PM

just cuz you can't see them doesn't mean they don't exist.

Urbane Guerrilla · 09-09-2009, 10:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DanaC

Ahhh....dunno why I had scanned your reply and though it said Radar, I 'saw' rkzenrage lol.

Soz about that :P

Erm... that would be awkward. Somehow. I think. If I go and dig through the posts of Nov '08, I can find the exact post, I'm sure.

TheMercenary · 09-10-2009, 09:56 AM

I thought his speech was quite... Presidential. He spoke much better than Bush ever could. I am not sure it really changed anyone's mind about the issues at hand.

Happy Monkey · 09-10-2009, 10:28 AM

I heard a poll on the radio that showed a dramatic change - 67% supporting him. That won't last, but some amount of improvement probably will.

But I doubt he changed many congressional minds.

classicman · 09-10-2009, 01:19 PM

Quote:

Sure enough, CNN did a flash poll showing that ObamaCare a 14-point gain among speech-watchers. Buried at the end of the story is the fact that the sample of speech-watchers in the poll was 45% Democratic and 18% Republican. For comparison, consider that the most recent Gallup survey of party ID among adults had 35% of Americans as Democrats and 28% as Republicans. A 14-point swing among a sample that skewed to the left is not surprising. Regular tracking polls are unlikely to show anything near it.

I think this is from a partisan site, but I only did a quick google search.

TheMercenary · 09-10-2009, 01:21 PM

And it was a poll based on 427 Adults.

classicman · 09-10-2009, 02:11 PM

Well that and ...

Quote:

I noted that “the self-selected audience for the speech will likely skew in favor of Obama, something to remember if the establishment media does a poll of people who watched the speech.” There was nothing oracular about this prediction. As Democratic pollster Mark Blumenthal noted before the speech: (1) instant response polls measure only speech-watchers; (2) the audience is usually skewed toward the President’s fans; (3) instant reactions tend to fade; and (4) some pollsters have reservations about instant reaction polls in general.

dar512 · 09-10-2009, 03:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheMercenary

And it was a poll based on 427 Adults.

I'm guessing that you are not familiar with surveys and statistics. For the given sample size the margin of error is ~4.5%. Acceptable for a quick poll.

Major surveys typically use a sample size of ~ 1000. However that only reduces the margin to ~3.2 percent.

classicman · 09-10-2009, 03:36 PM

Ohhh noooooo - Merc doesn't believe in polls - don't get that started again!

TheMercenary · 09-10-2009, 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dar512

I'm guessing that you are not familiar with surveys and statistics. For the given sample size the margin of error is ~4.5%. Acceptable for a quick poll.

Major surveys typically use a sample size of ~ 1000. However that only reduces the margin to ~3.2 percent.

I am quite familar with the statistical strenght of and validity of polling. It is the weakest form of any statistical measure and means absolutely nothing because the majority are not measuring an adequate sample. There are numerous other weaknesses but I will spare you.

dar512 · 09-10-2009, 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheMercenary

I am quite familar with the statistical strenght of and validity of polling. It is the weakest form of any statistical measure and means absolutely nothing because the majority are not measuring an adequate sample. There are numerous other weaknesses but I will spare you.

I see. You know better than the industry standards. Uh-huh.

classicman · 09-11-2009, 09:17 AM

lol - told ya that was coming - HAGGIS!

dar512 · 09-11-2009, 09:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheMercenary

There are numerous other weaknesses but I will spare you.

If I want to dig any deeper into polling and statistics, I will walk down the hall and talk to any of the statistics doctorates we have here.

(If that allows any of you to guess where I work, be advised that I do not speak for the company I work for, and my opinions are my own.)

dar512 · 09-11-2009, 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classicman

lol - told ya that was coming - HAGGIS!

You called it.

09-08-2009, 03:49 PM	#781
classicman barely disguised asshole, keeper of all that is holy. Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 23,401	I don't know that there is an issue - that was my original point. She seemed to think there was and so did the other person who was "creeped out" by "it." I really didn't get what she was referring to. I shared the article, thats all. Either way, its better than talking about non-existent death squads... :p __________________ "like strapping a pillow on a bull in a china shop" Bullitt

09-08-2009, 05:16 PM	#782
lookout123 changed his status to single Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Right behind you. No, the other side. Posts: 10,308	just cuz you can't see them doesn't mean they don't exist. __________________ Getting knocked down is no sin, it's not getting back up that's the sin

09-10-2009, 09:56 AM	#784
TheMercenary “Hypocrisy: prejudice with a halo” Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Savannah, Georgia Posts: 21,393	I thought his speech was quite... Presidential. He spoke much better than Bush ever could. I am not sure it really changed anyone's mind about the issues at hand. __________________ Anyone but the this most fuked up President in History in 2012!

09-10-2009, 10:28 AM	#785
Happy Monkey I think this line's mostly filler. Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: DC Posts: 13,575	I heard a poll on the radio that showed a dramatic change - 67% supporting him. That won't last, but some amount of improvement probably will. But I doubt he changed many congressional minds. __________________ _________________ \|...............\| We live in the nick of times. \| Len 17, Wid 3 \| \|_______________\| [pics]

09-10-2009, 01:21 PM	#787
TheMercenary “Hypocrisy: prejudice with a halo” Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Savannah, Georgia Posts: 21,393	And it was a poll based on 427 Adults. __________________ Anyone but the this most fuked up President in History in 2012!

09-10-2009, 03:36 PM	#790
classicman barely disguised asshole, keeper of all that is holy. Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 23,401	Ohhh noooooo - Merc doesn't believe in polls - don't get that started again! __________________ "like strapping a pillow on a bull in a china shop" Bullitt

09-11-2009, 09:17 AM	#793
classicman barely disguised asshole, keeper of all that is holy. Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 23,401	lol - told ya that was coming - HAGGIS! __________________ "like strapping a pillow on a bull in a china shop" Bullitt

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