Betting tips

[W.HI.P]

we're gonna try something this week, sometimes it works, sometimes it does not.
if it does, we're set up for some good money, if it does not, we start fresh on sunday.
the idea is to get thursdays game through as a base.
in this particular case, since thursdays game is not quite the sure thing as both teams are quite equal at this time, we'll wager a little less.
we're gonna combine thursdays game with what would have been our normal base for this week[sunday night's colts over patriots].
this gives us the freedom to gamble on all games without considering them much.


1]san fransisco 49ers[-3.5] vs chicago bears
2]indianapolis colts[-2.5] vs new england patriots
3]carolina panthers vs atlanta falcons[-2.5]
4]miami dolphins[-9.5] vs tampa bay bucs
5]new york jets[-6.5] vs jacksonvile jaguars
6]minnesota vikings[16.5] vs detroit liions
7]pittsburgh steelers[-7.5] vs cincinatti bengals
8]st.louis rams vs new orlean saints[-14.5]
9]tennessee titans[-6.5] vs buffalo bills
10]washington redskins vs denver broncos[-4.5]
11]oakland raiders [-1.5] vs kansas city chiefs
12]arizona cardinals[-9.5] vs seattle seahawks
13]green bay packers vs dallas cowboys[-3.5]
14]san diego chargers[-2.5] vs philadelphia eagles
15]clevland browns vs baltimore ravens[-12.5]

2 bases combined with 13 games = 13 bets
$200 a bet x 13 = $2.600

1-2-3
1-2-4
1-2-5
1-2-6
1-2-7
1-2-8
1-2-9
1-2-10
1-2-11
1-2-12
1-2-13
1-2-14
1-2-15

with the 2 bases plus
1 win = $1.400
2 wins = $2.800
3 wins = $4.200
4 wins = $5.600
5 wins = $7.000
6 wins = $8.400
7 wins = $9.800
8 wins = $11.200
9 wins = $12.600
10 wins = $14.000
11 wins = $15.400
12 wins = $16.800
13 wins = $18.200

as you can see, if your bases go through, you pretty much guarenteed a profit.

[classicman]

dood - ur scrude -

You must win both your "base games" and then whatever with the rest.
I liked your strategy initially, but this week? Seems a little strange. It defeats the base argument for your theory, doesn't it?

[W.HI.P]

i've worked with these 3 systems since the start.

this is the basic defencive bet
no base
123,124,125,134,135,145,234,235,245,345

this is basically betting on 1 game.
1 base
123,124,125,126,134,135,136,145,146,156

this is betting on 2 games....a little more aggressive than the above.
2 bases
123,124,125,126,127,128,129 etc

if you think about it, since i want to bet on the colts, this gives me a chance, should the bears go through, to only really need the colts to go through to win some serious money..... otherwise its the colts, plus, i'll have to do well with the rest.
its a thursday thing

[W.HI.P]

Originally Posted by classicman

It defeats the base argument for your theory, doesn't it?

which theory are you refering to exactly?

[monster]

1]san fransisco 49ers[-3.5] vs chicago bears

so your bet was the 49ers would not beat the bears by more than 3.5 (rather than for thebears to win), but they did by 4 so you lose? that sucks. Especially 'cause I picked the Bears to win in the pool....

that was a really low scoring game too, by the looks of it.

[lumberjim]

yeah...bummer dude.



so ....whip....seriously now, and without any mocking on my part.....after watching last week's game......what is your honest and objective opinion about the quality of the Cowboys' D?

[W.HI.P]

Originally Posted by lumberjim

yeah...bummer dude.



so ....whip....seriously now, and without any mocking on my part.....after watching last week's game......what is your honest and objective opinion about the quality of the Cowboys' D?

knowing the units that this cowboys d holds, having watched them over the past 2 seasons all the way up to monday nights game, i would say that the cowboys d remains below par.
still not a contender .... it would take a few years to fill up them holes, but you'll have to finish at the bottom of the table for a couple years to achieve that, so its not really working out for your team.
but at least you've got your new stadium to be happy about.

[W.HI.P]

1]indianapolis colts[-2.5] vs new england patriots
2]carolina panthers vs atlanta falcons[-2.5]
3]miami dolphins[-9.5] vs tampa bay bucs
4]new york jets[-6.5] vs jacksonvile jaguars
5]minnesota vikings[16.5] vs detroit liions
6]pittsburgh steelers[-7.5] vs cincinatti bengals
7]st.louis rams vs new orlean saints[-14.5]
8]tennessee titans[-6.5] vs buffalo bills
9]washington redskins vs denver broncos[-4.5]
10]oakland raiders [-1.5] vs kansas city chiefs
11]arizona cardinals[-9.5] vs seattle seahawks
12]green bay packers vs dallas cowboys[-3.5]
13]san diego chargers[-2.5] vs philadelphia eagles
14]clevland browns vs baltimore ravens[-12.5]

we're gonna continue this week as we started it, with the colts as our base.
let me show you how it works with 1 base and a bundle of other games.

i'm showing you exactly what my wager is, but you can adjust the sum of money wagered based on your capabilities

1 base combined with 13 games = 78 bets
$50 a bet x 78 = $3.900

1-2-3
1-2-4
1-2-5
1-2-6
1-2-7
1-2-8
1-2-9
1-2-10
1-2-11
1-2-12
1-2-13
1-2-14
1-3-4
1-3-5
1-3-6
1-3-7
1-3-8
1-3-9
1-3-10
1-3-11
1-3-12
1-3-13
1-3-14
1-4-5
1-4-6
1-4-7
1-4-8
1-4-9
1-4-10
1-4-11
1-4-12
1-4-13
1-4-14
1-5-6
1-5-7
1-5-8
1-5-9
1-5-10
1-5-11
1-5-12
1-5-13
1-5-14
1-6-7
1-6-8
1-6-9
1-6-10
1-6-11
1-6-12
1-6-13
1-6-14
1-7-8
1-7-9
1-7-10
1-7-11
1-7-12
1-7-13
1-7-14
1-8-9
1-8-10
1-8-11
1-8-12
1-8-13
1-8-14
1-9-10
1-9-11
1-9-12
1-9-13
1-9-14
1-10-11
1-10-12
1-10-13
1-10-14
1-11-12
1-11-13
1-11-14
1-12-13
1-12-14
1-13-14

the base with
2 wins = $350
3 wins = $1.050
4 wins = $2.100
5 wins = $3.500
6 wins = $5.250
7 wins = $7.350
8 wins = $9.800
9 wins = $12.600
10 wins = $15.750
11 wins = $19.250
12 wins = $23.100
13 wins = $27.300

after thursday nights expenses and todays, we'll be making just under a grand profit with the base and 7 wins

[Undertoad]

Picking a Thursday game you're less sure about because you want a "fun" base, and picking all the games instead of just the games you know more about. You have entered dangerous territory, here. This is not picking, this is gambling. I'm not against gambling, it's fun, and sometimes you win and it's even more fun. But you're having a bad year, now, and you should be picking fewer games you have a stronger opinion on, instead of pushing forward with more and more picks. IN MY OPINION

[W.HI.P]

we decreased the money wagerd by less than 50 percent for thursdays game.

although classicman has yet to clear his query up for me, he may have triggered me exposing various ways of wagering.
this particular combination of games is actually the most defensive way one can possibly wager on a single game.
basically, its just the colts ... the winnings may vary a little pending the other games, but not by much.

ut, 2 seasons ago was my greatest nfl profit of my entire life.
if you recall, i began that season down 28 grand by this time.
anyone thats anyone that knows me, has always been advised to keep their serious money for the play-offs free money games.
the time of the college football bowls, and lets not forget, we're woking towards a 3rd perfect season of college basketball.
it will take a few bad season to lose back what we've won since this thread started.
it takes money to make money ut, the way things are shaping up in the nfl standings, this is probably gonna be our next best season.

[classicman]

Originally Posted by W.HI.P

although classicman has yet to clear his query up for me, he may have triggered me exposing various ways of wagering.
this particular combination of games is actually the most defensive way one can possibly wager on a single game.
basically, its just the colts ... the winnings may vary a little pending the other games, but not by much.

I thought you always selected a base game and built from there. This week you were looking at 2 base games and that was a break from your original theory of one base game.

Oh and yeh - I got you to spill a little more on how you do it. I never bet though, not unless you count the cellar pool :p

[Undertoad]

anyone thats anyone that knows me, has always been advised to keep their serious money for the play-offs free money games.

Until you find your own advantage you should be taking that advice, IMO.

[W.HI.P]

Originally Posted by Undertoad

Until you find your own advantage you should be taking that advice, IMO.

Oh i always do.
80% of all money wagered anually is on long term bets or the highest wagered single games in sports(nfl playoffs, ncaab, ncaaf bowls.
about15% goes to nfl,week 1-17.
the rest goes on silly entertainment based bets on daily nhl and mlb games.
i started wagering seriously while in England a couple decades ago where i learned that prices are not based on reality, but on perception.
i created a seperate money account for wagers, and its been growing ever since, mostly due to long term bets. but back then it included golf, snooker, tennis etc

[Undertoad]

Holy shit with the Colts, boy did you get lucky with that one

[lumberjim]

he lost, dude. line was 2.5