The New Bailout

[TheMercenary]

The May Unemployment Numbers are Here, and Worse Than Predicted June 5, 2009
Posted by geoff in News.
465 comments
While I was waiting for May’s numbers to be released I did a quick Google News search on “unemployment.” Here is the first set of entries that popped up:

Pittsburgh unemployment rate falls to 6.9 percent Bizjournals.com - Unemployment in the Pittsburgh area inched down in April to 6.9 percent…
US Economy: Jobless Claims Fall, Productivity Rises Bloomberg
US jobless claims fall again, productivity rises Reuters
Jobless claims are down, but work remains scarce AP

You get the feeling that there’s a little pre-spin effort afoot? I mean, why put up an article on April’s unemployment on the day that May’s numbers come out? And while jobless claims did fall, interpreting that information without the unemployment rate is very difficult.

In any case, here is the new number for May: 9.4%, which is 0.2% higher than we had shown in the chart from a few days ago:*


Oh dear. And I’m serious – I expected the numbers to flatten out like it looked like they were going to a few days ago. This trend is terrible – the unemployment rate change was 60% higher than what was predicted, and is a larger increase than from March to April.

Maybe we’d better just keep focusing on those jobless claims.

*As always, this chart was constructed by overlaying the actual economic data on top of the chart made by Obama’s economic team to market his stimulus plan.

**Here are some other posts on the subject:

The predicted numbers for May from a few days ago, with some thoughts on why unemployment is worse than expected even without the stimulus package (and a hearty discussion in the comments on proper graphing)
A look at the stimulus package spending – how late it is, and how little thus far has been devoted to job creation (it’s basically gone to pay off states’ social services debts)
The April numbers
The original post on the subject, noting that criticisms of the stimulus package may not have been motivated by racism after all.

http://michaelscomments.wordpress.com/

[ZenGum]

What exactly is a "jobless claim"?

Is it where someone visits social security and says, I've just been fired?
Or is it a regular request for unemployment money by someone who has been out of work for months?

[xoxoxoBruce]

They are talking about new claims at state unemployment offices. Nothing to do with social security.

[ZenGum]

Thanks for the clarification.
So, the "good" news is, slightly fewer people lost their jobs this month than last month. Huzzah.

Down under, somehow our GDP just grew 0.4 in the second quarter, and total jobs have increased.
Our currency falling off a cliff probably helped by stimulating exports, as did the gubmint giving everyone a bucket of money and telling them to go spend it.

[xoxoxoBruce]

Australia is one of the very few countries that are almost immune to this recession.
The new unemployment claims dropped slightly, but most of those people laid off in the last five months are still unemployed. It will probably be another year or more before the economy can recover enough to start putting a significant dent in unemployment numbers.

[ZenGum]

Here is the Aussie dollar, versus the yen, for the last three years (the only rate I have ready to hand). It has done much the same against all other currencies.



I exchanged my yen for Aussies on Obama's inauguration day, figuring if anything was going to turn it around it would be that. That day was the third of those three very low spikes you see, the last before the recent recovery. !

I guess that makes me one of the idle rich parasites exploiting fluctuations in exchange values without adding any real value. Oh well, peel me a grape,

[classicman]

I heard an interview this morning with Elizabeth Warren, Chair of the TARP Congressional Oversight Panel. She was discussing how the legislation was specifically written "ambiguously" so that if/when the banks pay back the money we, the taxpayers have no right to the money. In fact, according to her, the administration has the right to utilize that money however they see fit. In short we may (read probably) will never actually get paid back.

Furthermore, she said that she has been requesting more information on the banks and the stress tests. She cannot perform the functions of the position which they empowered her with.
Paraphrasing... I would just like them to be more open, transparent and forthcoming with the information from the stress tests so that we (an independent body) can look at how things are and may be affected by different economic indicators..."

[Undertoad]

starting to turn

[ZenGum]

Oh dear.


Well, the good news is, the speed of the increase seems to have decreased slightly. Oh joy. May just be a statistical blip, though.

[skysidhe]

The states are balancing their budgets. Maybe that is the reason for the spike?

Well I know in my state they are balancing the budget and much of it is being laid on the sholders of those rich state employees.
*cough cough*

[xoxoxoBruce]

Like any business, the boss screws up and the employees get screwed.

[skysidhe]

yup exactly

We are mandated to balance every year unlike California which is running a deficit. I am not sure if that is the right word 'deficit' but I think for California to go bust would be scary thing.

[glatt]

Originally Posted by glatt

I just found this graph of Saab sales over the years. They grew steadily during the 80s and peaked in 87, which is around the time I remember I started seeing them everywhere. Then they took a nosedive.

Partway though the nosedive, GM acquired a majority stake in them (1990,) and slowly started to grow the brand again in the early-mid 90s. Then about 3-4 years ago, they took a nosedive again.

I just read in the paper this morning that GM couldn't find a buyer for Saab, so they are shutting it down.

That's it. Saab had a nice run and produced some neat cars, but now they have gone the way of the Studebaker. Good bye Saab.

[TheMercenary]

I feel sorry for all those folks who paid hansomely for those cars within the last few years. I wonder how long they will continue to fix them?

[tw]

History says unemployment may peak in 2012. With less than 100 years of comprehensive data, we have insufficient information to predict how well and what will happen due to what Bernanke, et al have done. We do know the economy was on the verge of a complete meltdown. How much less damage could have been done? That is debated. We do know, without doubt, that it could have been massively worse.

We also know the debts incurred to avoid a complete economic catastrophe will appear many years later. A disastrous home mortgage fiasco has yet to be addressed. We do know American fiscal irresponsibility over most of the last ten year will result in economic harm years from now. Economics takes revenge on those who use money games (ie tax cuts, corporate welfare, tariffs).

Large parts of America must be sold to pay our debts. Unfortunately irresponsible parties (ie General Motors) would rather destroy existing organizations rather than admit how little those organizations are now worth (ie Saab, Oldsmobile, Opel, Saturn, Pontiac, Vauxhall, etc).

Spread sheet games from years previously mean job losses or sale of America to others. We don't have much left to mortgage having even converted a government surplus into massive debts (with nothing to show for it). These are the lessons even from Nam. One need only learn why George Sr was so smart as to have the world - not America - pay for Desert Storm. Lessons from history. Now we will learn if a different tack from Bernanke, et al will work better.

Obvious was a crashing housing industry based in money games. Same reasoning says we have yet to see the eventual unemployment numbers. Worse are the number of American jobs that must be filled by immigrants - due to a shortage of technically educated American and a government that has subverted science for political purposes. Things have yet to get worse. The only question is how much. Mild or severe?