Egypt and Arab States circle toilet bowl - Page 11

piercehawkeye45 · 02-21-2011, 12:58 PM

Libyans are not as nationalistic and homogenous as Egyptians or Bahrainis so it seems there is a potential chance of civil war, breakup, a new brutal dictator, or any combination in the upcoming years. It will be extremely difficult to start a democracy there if many citizens see themselves as a member of a particular clan or tribe over a citizen of Libya.

Sundae · 02-21-2011, 01:09 PM

Have heard that the airforce are bombing civilians.
Not verified the last I heard.

Not totally sure why people are surprised. I don't mean people here - I mean talking heads and politicians.
You think nice guys get to hold onto dictatorships?
Bastards rise to the top by force. Fucking bastards stay there because they are not afraid to use it/ too afraid to lose it.

I think most anti-Western hatred in these countries is from the fear of losing their cultural way of life. This fear is preyed on and magnified by the ignorant and the powerful who want to maintain the status quo. If you sat down with an averagely intelligent anti-Westerner you would find the things they are most against are founded on lies. The remainder will be religious or cultural differences.

Think how average Americans in the 50s and 60s were terrified first of Socialism and then young people who wanted to grow their hair. It's not always rational.

FYIY, Gadaffi shored up a lot of African Muslim states.
(Malawi for example is not a dictatorship but has had the same leader since 2004. Unusual in a democracy.)

piercehawkeye45 · 02-21-2011, 01:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sundae Girl

Have heard that the airforce are bombing civilians.
Not verified that last I heard.

Apparently these civilians were trying to take a military base. This does not look good...

Wiki has speculated over 500 deaths now. That means 300 have died today.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/internat...-base-1.344775

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Li...ts#21_February

Aliantha · 02-21-2011, 04:45 PM

Has anyone considered that the whole middle east is erupting and that it's very likely to go nuclear?

The western world is not going to sit by and watch genocide on telly for much longer.

2012 is only months away.

Think about it people. This could be the end of the world as we know it

Clodfobble · 02-21-2011, 05:22 PM

Is it supposed to be December 21st, or December 22, 2012? I'm too lazy to look it up.

Aliantha · 02-21-2011, 05:52 PM

No idea. I've never really looked into it to be honest.

My post was half tongue in cheek, but still, this situation is not good, and it's getting worse by the minute. Literally.

I am afraid of how this is going to end.

Uday · 02-21-2011, 06:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aliantha

Has anyone considered that the whole middle east is erupting and that it's very likely to go nuclear?

Which middle east nations have nuclear weapons?

Aliantha · 02-21-2011, 06:46 PM

Well there's Israel, and possibly Iran, but it doesn't really matter if no one in the middle east has them. Plenty of other states with a stake in the outcome of the crisis there do have them, and may elect to use them.

Uday · 02-21-2011, 09:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aliantha

Well there's Israel, and possibly Iran, but it doesn't really matter if no one in the middle east has them. Plenty of other states with a stake in the outcome of the crisis there do have them, and may elect to use them.

Why would they do that? There is no benefit. Nations do nothing without some kind of payoff.

Urbane Guerrilla · 02-21-2011, 09:44 PM

I agree with Uday here. Bringing up nuclear attacks is unreal and if anything irresponsible, Ali.

Clodfobble · 02-21-2011, 10:03 PM

*snort* I'm pretty sure there's nothing irresponsible about posting the word "nuclear" on a messageboard.

Aliantha · 02-21-2011, 10:56 PM

Oh UG, you do have the weirdest choice of words sometimes. lol

Seriously though, the middle east is a tinderbox of repression which has been building up heat for so long now, and if the people are choosing now to have a revolution, what do you think the dictators and other corrupt individuals in charge of things are going to do? Usually they just systematically murder everyone that gets out of line, but Egypt has shown us the power of multi media, and I just don't think the international power houses are going to get away with turning a blind eye again.

I just think the situation is lethal and I think we're all going to be involved in the end.

ZenGum · 02-21-2011, 11:51 PM

It seems the Libyan forces have been strafing and possibly bombing their citizens in Tripoli, which is bloody vicious, but not nuclear.

Unless Ali meant it metaphorically. But in one respect, Ali is right. Long established dictatorships are being shaken, long repressed citizenries are stretching their muscles and looking at throwing off yokes, etc. all though the Middle East and Africa. This has spread as far as China! Multiply that by all the various political and religious differences, add a few thousand years of grudges, and raise it to the power of OIL, which draws in pretty much every other country on Earth. Lord knows how this is all going to end up.

There is one way the nuclear fear might come about. In most of the Arab states near Israel, the general populace sympathise with the Palestinians, but their leaders have been influenced by diplomacy to not attack Israel. Most notable, Egypt is participating in the seige of Gaza, despite the fact that (Uday can correct me here) the vast majority of Egyptians oppose this.

So, here's a scenario: populist revolt sweeps the Arab nations, new governments take over, they are unable to meet thier peoples' unrealistic hopes, decide a bit of foriegner-blaming is the thing to do, and end up making war on Israel. Israel got da bomb. As a last resort, they might well use it.

I think this is unlikely, but not impossible.

ETA: BTW, Hi, UG, been a while, how have you been?

TheMercenary · 02-22-2011, 07:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZenGum

So, here's a scenario: populist revolt sweeps the Arab nations, new governments take over, they are unable to meet thier peoples' unrealistic hopes, decide a bit of foriegner-blaming is the thing to do, and end up making war on Israel. Israel got da bomb. As a last resort, they might well use it.

I think this is unlikely, but not impossible.

I agree. The real problem in most of these place, more so in Libya and less so in Egypt, is that if there is no organized group in place to step up and seize the reigns of power until some electoral process can be put in motion then you run the risk of replacing one dictator for another, or in the case of this region, a more radical Islamic organization. I only mention the radical Islamic elements because often in the background of the chaos of these countries there is a well structured religious organization, with leaders and followers. Without a plan the result could be worse than the previous situation. I don't know. Time will tell.

Sundae · 02-22-2011, 09:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by piercehawkeye45

Apparently these civilians were trying to take a military base. This does not look good...

This is hearsay, but seems to come from eyewitnesses. There was a funeral procession following the deaths of protestors. They left the burial site and marched back into the city centre. As they passed a military base they were greeted by the soldiers and 60 were invited in as representatives. They were not attacking the base, but the troops did seem to be trying to pacify them because of the large number.

They were all shot and the bodies thrown into the street.

Again - this is hearsay, but it enraged those present because the men were greeted as friends, kissed and hugged. In the Arab world to turn on a person you have greeted in friendship is one of the worst crimes imaginable.

So that part at least sounds palusible.

02-21-2011, 12:58 PM	#151
piercehawkeye45 Franklin Pierce Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Minnesota Posts: 3,695	Libyans are not as nationalistic and homogenous as Egyptians or Bahrainis so it seems there is a potential chance of civil war, breakup, a new brutal dictator, or any combination in the upcoming years. It will be extremely difficult to start a democracy there if many citizens see themselves as a member of a particular clan or tribe over a citizen of Libya. __________________ I like my perspectives like I like my baseball caps: one size fits all.

02-21-2011, 01:09 PM	#152
Sundae polaroid of perfection Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: West Yorkshire Posts: 24,185	Have heard that the airforce are bombing civilians. Not verified the last I heard. Not totally sure why people are surprised. I don't mean people here - I mean talking heads and politicians. You think nice guys get to hold onto dictatorships? Bastards rise to the top by force. Fucking bastards stay there because they are not afraid to use it/ too afraid to lose it. I think most anti-Western hatred in these countries is from the fear of losing their cultural way of life. This fear is preyed on and magnified by the ignorant and the powerful who want to maintain the status quo. If you sat down with an averagely intelligent anti-Westerner you would find the things they are most against are founded on lies. The remainder will be religious or cultural differences. Think how average Americans in the 50s and 60s were terrified first of Socialism and then young people who wanted to grow their hair. It's not always rational. FYIY, Gadaffi shored up a lot of African Muslim states. (Malawi for example is not a dictatorship but has had the same leader since 2004. Unusual in a democracy.) __________________ Life's hard you know, so strike a pose on a Cadillac Last edited by Sundae; 02-21-2011 at 01:19 PM. Reason: Typos only, content is the same

02-21-2011, 04:45 PM	#154
Aliantha trying hard to be a better person Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Brisbane, Australia Posts: 16,493	Has anyone considered that the whole middle east is erupting and that it's very likely to go nuclear? The western world is not going to sit by and watch genocide on telly for much longer. 2012 is only months away. Think about it people. This could be the end of the world as we know it __________________ Kind words are the music of the world. F. W. Faber

02-21-2011, 05:22 PM	#155
Clodfobble UNDER CONDITIONAL MITIGATION Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Austin, TX Posts: 20,012	Is it supposed to be December 21st, or December 22, 2012? I'm too lazy to look it up. __________________ My book My other book My spirit animal

02-21-2011, 05:52 PM	#156
Aliantha trying hard to be a better person Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Brisbane, Australia Posts: 16,493	No idea. I've never really looked into it to be honest. My post was half tongue in cheek, but still, this situation is not good, and it's getting worse by the minute. Literally. I am afraid of how this is going to end. __________________ Kind words are the music of the world. F. W. Faber

02-21-2011, 06:46 PM	#158
Aliantha trying hard to be a better person Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Brisbane, Australia Posts: 16,493	Well there's Israel, and possibly Iran, but it doesn't really matter if no one in the middle east has them. Plenty of other states with a stake in the outcome of the crisis there do have them, and may elect to use them. __________________ Kind words are the music of the world. F. W. Faber

02-21-2011, 09:44 PM	#160
Urbane Guerrilla Person who doesn't update the user title Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: Southern California Posts: 6,674	I agree with Uday here. Bringing up nuclear attacks is unreal and if anything irresponsible, Ali. __________________ Wanna stop school shootings? End Gun-Free Zones, of course.

02-21-2011, 10:03 PM	#161
Clodfobble UNDER CONDITIONAL MITIGATION Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: Austin, TX Posts: 20,012	snort I'm pretty sure there's nothing irresponsible about posting the word "nuclear" on a messageboard. __________________ My book My other book My spirit animal

02-21-2011, 10:56 PM	#162
Aliantha trying hard to be a better person Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Brisbane, Australia Posts: 16,493	Oh UG, you do have the weirdest choice of words sometimes. lol Seriously though, the middle east is a tinderbox of repression which has been building up heat for so long now, and if the people are choosing now to have a revolution, what do you think the dictators and other corrupt individuals in charge of things are going to do? Usually they just systematically murder everyone that gets out of line, but Egypt has shown us the power of multi media, and I just don't think the international power houses are going to get away with turning a blind eye again. I just think the situation is lethal and I think we're all going to be involved in the end. __________________ Kind words are the music of the world. F. W. Faber

02-21-2011, 11:51 PM	#163
ZenGum Doctor Wtf Join Date: Oct 2007 Location: Badelaide, Baustralia Posts: 12,861	It seems the Libyan forces have been strafing and possibly bombing their citizens in Tripoli, which is bloody vicious, but not nuclear. Unless Ali meant it metaphorically. But in one respect, Ali is right. Long established dictatorships are being shaken, long repressed citizenries are stretching their muscles and looking at throwing off yokes, etc. all though the Middle East and Africa. This has spread as far as China! Multiply that by all the various political and religious differences, add a few thousand years of grudges, and raise it to the power of OIL, which draws in pretty much every other country on Earth. Lord knows how this is all going to end up. There is one way the nuclear fear might come about. In most of the Arab states near Israel, the general populace sympathise with the Palestinians, but their leaders have been influenced by diplomacy to not attack Israel. Most notable, Egypt is participating in the seige of Gaza, despite the fact that (Uday can correct me here) the vast majority of Egyptians oppose this. So, here's a scenario: populist revolt sweeps the Arab nations, new governments take over, they are unable to meet thier peoples' unrealistic hopes, decide a bit of foriegner-blaming is the thing to do, and end up making war on Israel. Israel got da bomb. As a last resort, they might well use it. I think this is unlikely, but not impossible. ETA: BTW, Hi, UG, been a while, how have you been? __________________ Shut up and hug. MoreThanPretty, Nov 5, 2008. Just because I'm nominally polite, does not make me a pussy. Sundae Girl.

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