Egypt and Arab States circle toilet bowl

[Fair&Balanced]

Originally Posted by TheMercenary

None of that addresses the issues. Who is going to take the place of the current government? Who is poised to fill the void? The Muslim Brotherhood? AQ? Who?

The fact that Gaddifi's support is crumbling certaintly addresses the issue of how events are transpiring in Libya.

To answer your question, presumably the National Transitional Council with leaders including a guy with a doctorate in strategic planning from Univ of Pittsburgh, a guy who organized an earlier plot to overthrow Gaddifi, a guy with a doctorate in economics from Michigan State Univ, a human rights lawyer...

They have as much of a structure in place as the Egyptians after they tossed Mubarak out, including the basics a transitional plan.

[classicman]

From your Wiki link ...

The National Transitional Council, is a body formed by anti-Gaddafi rebels during the Libyan Civil War.

So it is a war. just checking.

According to that link the US has not even recognized it yet. In fact the only ones to formally do so are France, Qatar and the Arab League.
**They have asked for it and have been in contact with many other countries**

Originally Posted by F&B

with leaders including a guy with a doctorate in strategic planning from Univ of Pittsburgh, a guy who organized an earlier plot to overthrow Gaddifi, a guy with a doctorate in economics from Michigan State Univ, a human rights lawyer...

again from your link ...

The identities of members of the council were not disclosed at the launch conference. What is known is that human rights lawyer Hafiz Ghoga is the spokesperson for the new council. An Al Jazeera English journalist in Benghazi stated that Mustafa Mohamed Abud Al Jeleil still had a leadership role within the new council.[20] The Council declared that Jeleil is the head of the council.[4] The council met formally for the first time on 5 March 2011[4] when it was announced that the council has 31 members.[30] The names of some of the members are being kept secret to prevent threats to their families that are still in Government held areas of Libya.[31]

Can you help me out with this? Are you referring to one of the men mentioned here or was there more info?
Seriously, I find this fascinating. The formation of a new gov't and all. Especially from square one.

[tw]

Originally Posted by Fair&Balanced

They have as much of a structure in place as the Egyptians after they tossed Mubarak out, including the basics.

Not exactly. Egypt had much outside contact and training even at the lowest levels of leadership. In particular were what and how its lower level military officers were trained. And similar knowledge gained via commercial enterprises. Libya has few people educated in concepts necessary for a democratic leadership. Even teaching foreign languages was all but banned in Libya to keep the people dumb and subservient.

Furthermore, rebel forces are many different and otherwise adversarial parties united only by one factor - a hate for Kaddafi. Once the common enemy is gone, then what?

Kaddafi is playing a wonderfully successful strategy to suck in the rebels, blast them back to Benghazi, and then suck them back in. His latest version makes air power less effective. It works because so little leadership and virtually no discipline exists among rebels ground forces. That knowledge will eventually come. But first the war must seesaw even for a full year. Rebel forces must learn to work with each other, learn about leadership, build common factors among who would otherwise be adversaries, understand concepts such as support and supply, and generally kill off so many peers to eventually earn and understand concepts not yet understood.

A quick fall of Kaddafi would be great in the short term and a long term disaster for Libya. Important in this war is for painful lessons to first be learned. A long war against a common enemy could be the catalyst that eventually creates a better Libya.

Just because a few top leaders are smart does not make a stable or productive country. Appreciate where most power must reside. And why western democracies are so successful. Among the little leaders (ie Captains and Sergeants) who finally learn concepts that western citizens take for granted. Libyans have been too isolated and too uneducated to have learned what makes a better human race. A long and painful war could be one solution. To teach so many Libyans how much they do not know and what is necessary to be able to learn.

Those lessons include respecting and cooperating with your adversaries. That means adversaries must spend a painfully long time together in the trenches. Where their number one purpose is to protect one another's lives.

This is summarizing what is necessary to "forge a nation". Kaddafi has spent 40 years destroying what is necessary to be a productive, peaceful, and growing nation. It will not be learned in months. A first step can be years suffering to earn a nation.

How long or at what expense did it take citizens of Lebanon, Cambodia, and Rwanda to finally learn these concepts? Libyians, with so many potential adversaries among the rebels and so little knowledge (grasp of the world), still have much to learn.

[Fair&Balanced]

I dont disagree with most of what you say.

I was speaking to the process of putting a transitional plan in place not the actual process of governing.

Where they fall short and are not as equally prepared at any level is the capacity to implement that plan if/when it comes to that.

I would expect a long slow slog that will require considerable outside support, including peace keepers to basic support and assistance in learning how to manage and provide government services and lots in between.

[ZenGum]

It looks to me that the rebels have a lot to do still. I don't know if Gdfi's regime is "crumbling". I've seen a few defectors, but it will have to be in large numbers to turn the battlefield. The rebels are still outclassed in number, weapons, logistics, strategy and discipline.

Although I fear for Libya, at least the intervention has helped keep the overall Arab revolt moving.

[tw]

Originally Posted by ZenGum

I don't know if Gdfi's regime is "crumbling". I've seen a few defectors, but it will have to be in large numbers to turn the battlefield.

Eventually military operations will result in negotiations at a peace table. Most of Kaddafi's people have no where to go. Critical to a peace settlement will be to give them an out. Currently none exists. And currently the military conditions are not yet ripe enough for any peace table talks.

Depending on how violent the warfare, this should probably continue for at least another month. Longer may be better for the long term stability of a settlement. But too many variables exist to really say how long it will take to, for example, discover a viable settlement. To get all parties so sick of war as to want that settlement. Critical to a settlement is for Kaddafi supporters to have someplace they might want to go. No such option exists yet. Only the very few who have something to offer in exchange have such options.

[tw]

Originally Posted by Fair&Balanced

I was speaking to the process of putting a transitional plan in place not the actual process of governing.

Critical to that transition will be the training of civilian equivalents of Captains and Sergeants. Egypt already had many capable people. Libya apparently has few. How many or how few is not really known. But a transition to a stable nation will be much longer.

[Fair&Balanced]

Originally Posted by ZenGum

It looks to me that the rebels have a lot to do still. I don't know if Gdfi's regime is "crumbling". I've seen a few defectors, but it will have to be in large numbers to turn the battlefield. The rebels are still outclassed in number, weapons, logistics, strategy and discipline.

Although I fear for Libya, at least the intervention has helped keep the overall Arab revolt moving.

The suggestion that Gaddafi's regime is "crumbling" is not just the defections of former top political associates, but the freezing of assets by the US, EU, Canada, South Africa, Malta, Turkey, etc., and the fact that Gulf Cooperation Council and Italy appear ready to broker oil deals with the rebels on oil fields under rebel control.

There is a reason why Gadaffi has made overtures to Britain, Greece, Turkey and other nations over the weekend to explore a political or diplomatic solution. While the overture of having Gadaffi step down to be replaced by one of his sons is a non-starter, the fact that he is even approaching these countries would suggest that there is some "crumbling" going on.

[ZenGum]

The various news sources I read are talking about a "military stalemate". That, plus international pressure, could lead to a sort-of-forced sort-of-negotiated ousting of Gadaffy Gaduck without an absolute bloodbath.

Meanwhile has anyone noticed the "toothless" French have done a similar intervention in Sierra Leone, using helicopter gunships to strike the forces of Gbagbo who refused to admit he lost an election a few months ago. The rebels election winner legitimate government other side have pretty much taken the capital.

[TheMercenary]

LIBYA
'No blood for oil' is the chant not heard

"No blood for oil" was a popular slogan chanted by the left in opposition to President George W. Bush's push to send U.S. forces into Iraq. Now that President Obama has authorized Operation Odyssey Dawn in Libya, I have been waiting to hear chants of "no blood for oil." I am happy to report, I don't hear them.

I went to the No Blood For Oil website; its lead item opposes efforts to strike wolves from the endangered species list. In fact, as NATO forces are lobbing missiles to enforce a no-fly zone over the country with Africa's largest oil and gas reserves, the nobloodforoil.org domain name is for sale.


With a Democrat in the White House, the anti-war corner has a much more civil tone. Anti-war House members have asked the GOP leadership to schedule an up-or-down congressional floor vote on the use of military force in Libya. A perfectly reasonable proposal. Congress should take its constitutional responsibilities seriously.

Now the Obama administration is in the hot seat - crushed between critics who charge the White House was too slow to authorize a no-fly zone and those who claim it was too rash in authorizing cruise missile strikes before notifying Congress. Hawks fear that Obama's promise not to put "boots on the ground" will embolden strongman Moammar Khadafy to fight to retain power. Doves believe that Obama went back on his no-boots-on-the-ground promise by authorizing a CIA presence in Libya.

Now, there are some smart questions to be asking the Obama administration. Who are the Libyan rebels? Are al Qaeda operatives or other extremists in their ranks? Can they win? Without answers, it is impossible to support any call to provide them with arms. NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen opposes such a move; Obama said he wouldn't rule it in or out.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...#ixzz1IQba5N7W

[TheMercenary]

Hey Ms. Powers, how about that Ivory Coast problem? Where are the US jets?

Oh, the humanity....

Ivory Coast: aid workers find 1,000 bodies in Duekoue


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/8423...n-Duekoue.html

[piercehawkeye45]

No offense Merc but I feel most of the writers of the articles you post are out of touch with what is really going on (since none of the writers are trying to make any political point...). There are very legitimate reasons to oppose the current war in Libya but most of the arguments I hear are completely missing the mark.

[tw]

Originally Posted by piercehawkeye45

There are very legitimate reasons to oppose the current war in Libya but most of the arguments I hear are completely missing the mark.

Let's not be so poltically correct. Most of the reaasons to oppose the current war are based in a hardened political agenda stated from day one. "We want Obama to fail." Harm to America and the world is good as long as the political agenda is protected.

Meanwhile, war throughout the world are ongoing without American action. Something that both Clinton and Obama has tried to encourage. Something that George Jr discouraged. The UN (and the French under UN authorization) has all but ended the war in Ivory Coast. Using concepts that an outmanned battalion of British marines also did so succesfully in Liberia. AU is active in Sudan. India performed a successful operation in Sierra Leone to all but end an uprising against an UN mandated peace settlement. How many know about India's successful deployment and combat? Few. Discussing reality does not help Obama to fail.

[TheMercenary]

Democracy!!!!!


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110405/...sing_islamists

[TheMercenary]

Holy shit! How is that working out for you Obamy? Samantha?

General: U.S. may consider troops in Libya

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/...#ixzz1IrtMwlxl