The Obamanation

[Lamplighter]

I live in a city that is very well off... good schools, expensive houses, etc.

When the housing crisis began there was little effect here for quite a while.
But eventually, it did hit, and home sales slumped and then prices fell.
Construction of new homes slowed and building permits dropped.

I've heard that places that were slowest to be hit by the crisis would be the first to show the recovery.
And last week as I was driving around town, I noticed several new construction sites.

Today, I came across this article.
Maybe, just maybe, the worst is over.


Bloomberg
10/17/12

Housing Starts in U.S. Surged in September to Four-Year High

Housing starts in the U.S. surged 15 percent in September
to the highest level in four years, adding to signs the industry at the
heart of the financial crisis is on the road to recovery.

Starts jumped to a 872,000 annual rate last month, the most since July 2008
and exceeding all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists,
Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington.



The median estimate of 81 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for 770,000.
An increase in building permits may mean the gains will be sustained.

<snip>

Building permits, a proxy for future construction, jumped to an 894,000 annual rate,
also exceeding the median forecast and the most since July 2008.
They were projected to rise to 810,000, with a range of 780,000 to 850,000.

The number of permits swelled by 45.1 percent since September 2011,
the biggest annual jump since 1983.

Construction of single-family houses climbed 11 percent from August to a 603,000 rate.
Work on multifamily homes, such apartment buildings, increased 25.1 percent
to an annual rate of 269,000.

[glatt]

Originally Posted by Lamplighter

Maybe, just maybe, the worst is over.

[infinite monkey]

I'm completely frightened.

Unless I get a job offer, I ain't gettin' into Canada.

Can't even get into Canada.

Maybe I'll move to Mexico instead.

[Trilby]

Mexico doesn't let immigrants in, I don't think. I don't think you can emigrate there. You have to kind of sneak in and lay low. And speak Spanish.

it would be easier to sneak into canada. we'd blend.

[infinite monkey]

Well Jebus Crepes...where CAN I move to?

Anyone?

[Trilby]

let's try islands...they seem really lax on security and shit like that. The Seychelles? They can't even extradite us from there! Or the canaries...NOT Hispaniola though. NO WAY.

eta: it can't be Oz coz they let NO ONE in; but I dunno about the Kiwi's and how they do it. we could do some research...

[xoxoxoBruce]

Originally Posted by Lamplighter

Maybe, just maybe, the worst is over.

Also a report on the news yesterday that defaults on loans, credit cards, and mortgages is steadily dropping a significant amount.

I know people who weren't hit nearly as bad by this recession as many were. They were working, paying their bills, with no wolves at the door. Sure their house was worth less, but they weren't planning on selling or borrowing against it anyway, so it only made a difference on paper, not lifestyle. Their stocks dropped in value, but most have come back.
But in the constant barrage of 24 hour news, virtually every news story included the tag line, "in this economy". Plus the political campaign is telling us doom & gloom is the order of the day. So even these people that skated fairly well through it all, talk constantly how bad things are.
The recession will be over when the public perceives it to be over, regardless of the unemployment rate.

[infinite monkey]

I don't know if I could get into the Canary Islands, not being a canary. How about the Virgin Islands?

How about Bali? I just want to walk around singing Bali Hai all day. I bet they never heard that one before.

[Trilby]

we could go to Key West, P-town Mass., or anywhere in Vermont b/c those places all flaunt the US gov't no matter who gets elected.


eta: um....I don't think they'd let either of us in the Virgin Islands...how about Iceland!!!!!!!!! We could be White Walkers!

[infinite monkey]

I want to live somewhere where everyone rides mopeds around.

Key West is good, but I don't trust repubs in office if we get a hurricane or something.

[infinite monkey]

Ooooh, Switzerland! It's all like, neutral and stuff. And I have people there! Allons-y!

[Trilby]

Key West tried to secede once and they named themselves the Conch Republic.

Switzerland...isn't that full of ex-nazi's guarding their art and gold?

[infinite monkey]

We be going to the Frenchy part.

[BigV]

Originally Posted by xoxoxoBruce

Also a report on the news yesterday that defaults on loans, credit cards, and mortgages is steadily dropping a significant amount.

I know people who weren't hit nearly as bad by this recession as many were. They were working, paying their bills, with no wolves at the door. Sure their house was worth less, but they weren't planning on selling or borrowing against it anyway, so it only made a difference on paper, not lifestyle. Their stocks dropped in value, but most have come back.
But in the constant barrage of 24 hour news, virtually every news story included the tag line, "in this economy". Plus the political campaign is telling us doom & gloom is the order of the day. So even these people that skated fairly well through it all, talk constantly how bad things are.
The recession will be over when the public perceives it to be over, regardless of the unemployment rate.

Another well spoken post. The recession *is* over, our economy has stopped receding some time ago. We're in a depression, a depressed economy now, but no one wants to call it that either.

Actually, xoB, you understate your point which is self-evident. It's so true that it defies refutation. You sound like you're channeling FDR:

Men are not prisoners of fate, but only prisoners of their own minds.

among others

[Lamplighter]

There's a new dog on the block... with BIG teeth

NY Times
BEN PROTESS and MICHAEL J. DE LA MERCED
11/2/12

FERC Takes Aim at Wall Street

Wall Street finds itself in a bare-knuckle brawl with a government agency.<snip>

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, the government watchdog overseeing
the oil, natural gas and electricity business, has lately taken aim at three major banks
suspected of manipulating energy prices.
After taking action against JPMorgan Chase and Deutsche Bank,
the agency on Wednesday threatened to impose its largest fine ever against Barclays.<snip>

The banks sense that a larger regulatory battle is at stake.
Unlike financial regulators, the energy commission can fine firms $1 million a day for every violation.
The string of recent cases, banks fear, could lay the groundwork for years of costly litigation.

The agency’s effort is rooted in a 2005 law passed in the aftermath of the Enron fraud.
The law created an enforcement unit at the agency and gave it the authority to assess hefty fines.

Under the Obama administration, the enforcement unit expanded
its ranks and received a nearly 50 percent budget increase.
The unit, which this year created a specialized group to analyze arcane data
and detect manipulation, also hired seasoned criminal investigators.
<snip>

The commission disclosed this summer that it was investigating JPMorgan Chase
over potential manipulation of markets in California and the Midwest,
exploring whether the firm had engaged in abusive bidding for energy prices.
The fight also centers on a technical issue: whether JPMorgan must turn over internal e-mail.
The bank initially refused to turn over documents to the California agency
that oversees the state’s power grid, citing attorney-client privilege.
In September, the federal energy commission ordered the bank to produce evidence
that it had not violated market rules, or risk losing its license to sell power at market rates.
Last month, JPMorgan apologized and turned over some of the documents,
blaming miscommunication for the impasse<snip>.
The broader inquiry into the bank continues.