The Gathering Storm in Syria

[ZenGum]

Yes to UT'S point about the international precedent (remember how Libya started playing nice after Saddam got the boot).

And Yes to PH45's article about the greater strategy - although it is a dangerous game to play. Still, what is a good idea in this situation isn't clear to me.

However, what the Syrian Rebels need is something to counter Assad's air power. With a no-fly zone and bombing of the Syrian Air Force bases pretty much off the table, that leaves giving the rebels shoulder fired SAMs. These are well capable of bringing down a civilian jet, in whatever country they are used. Hmmm. You really want to give those to people who are friends with Al Q?

Maybe if we could make SAMs that have GPS chips that track where they are are and disable themselves if they are used outside an approved war zone...


However, I was a little puzzled by this (in PH45's article):

In a related matter, arming the rebels also prevents relations with U.S. allies in the region from fraying any further.

Israel? or the Saudis and "friendly" Arab states? How so? Why would any of them like more weapons drifting around in Syria?

[piercehawkeye45]

Originally Posted by ZenGum

However, what the Syrian Rebels need is something to counter Assad's air power.

This is one of the main inconsistencies I've noticed when looking through different articles. Some say that Assad's air force is a major factor and other suggest that the air force is a really only a small part and it is the soldiers on the ground that is causing the largest amount of damage.

With a no-fly zone and bombing of the Syrian Air Force bases pretty much off the table, that leaves giving the rebels shoulder fired SAMs. These are well capable of bringing down a civilian jet, in whatever country they are used. Hmmm. You really want to give those to people who are friends with Al Q?

What could go wrong?

However, I was a little puzzled by this (in PH45's article):

Israel? or the Saudis and "friendly" Arab states? How so? Why would any of them like more weapons drifting around in Syria?

I think Europe, Turkey, and the other Arab states, namely Qatar and Saudi Arabia, are really pushing for the US to get involved.

[tw]

Originally Posted by piercehawkeye45

I think Europe, Turkey, and the other Arab states, namely Qatar and Saudi Arabia, are really pushing for the US to get involved.

Long before the world has any responsibility, first local powers must try and fail. It is their job; not our's. We are not the world's policeman. When we go in, the entire world also goes in. Currently, responsibility only lies with regional powers. Who are crying rather than doing.

Nothing is stopping Saudis, Turks, Gulf States, Iraqis, Lebanese, or Jordanians from providing massively more aid. Many are also rich. But instead they want us to do their work?

[piercehawkeye45]

Originally Posted by tw

Nothing is stopping Saudis, Turks, Gulf States, Iraqis, Lebanese, or Jordanians from providing massively more aid. Many are also rich. But instead they want us to do their work?

The Saudis and Qataris have been arming the rebels for the past few years. I do agree with you that we can not "own" the situation in Syria. If we are going to give weapons, it has to be backseat to the support from other countries. If the rebels manage to overthrow Assad, then let them deal with it.

[Griff]

This thing seems designed for chaos. Its a nice distraction from what could become an American Spring.

[tw]

Originally Posted by piercehawkeye45

The Saudis and Qataris have been arming the rebels for the past few years.

Insufficient weapons. Criticism should start with those who are cost controlling while waiting for the world's policeman to take charge.

We have one obligation. To provide defensive forces for our friends. Especially our friends who are the border states of Jordan and Turkey.

The world (and therefore the US) only has an obligation when the local 'powers that be' screw it up. That obligation does not yet exist.

A best example of how to do this was by Clinton in Bosnia. Until deaths are large enough to even concern a hardass (ie me), Syria's war remains a local issue. It is only getting worse because the local 'powers that be' are not yet criticized (even in the Cellar) for their inactions.

It is their problem. It becomes our future problem if WE are not overtly critical now of their inactions. Nobody is discussing a major problem - near zero weapons and aid from neighboring countries.

[piercehawkeye45]

Originally Posted by tw

A best example of how to do this was by Clinton in Bosnia. Until deaths are large enough to even concern a hardass (ie me), Syria's war remains a local issue. It is only getting worse because the local 'powers that be' are not yet criticized (even in the Cellar) for their inactions.

I don't think the public call for intervention is dependent on how many deaths have occurred, but more on a cost-analysis of what we would have to do to stop the killing. There are multiple competing rebel groups who will start killing each other if they dispose of Al-Assad. Arming the rebels won't prevent more deaths from occurring and will likely cause more. Plus, Al-Assad isn't a direct threat to US and is an only an indirect threat to Israel. Rebel groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra are more direct threats.

For Western governments pondering whether to arm the rebels rather than merely advise them and provide non-lethal support, Jabhat al-Nusra is the biggest worry. By some estimates, it now has 6,000 carefully vetted men, mainly Syrians but under foreign leadership. Its global jihadist ideology justifies violence to bring about a nation where all Muslims unite. “Most groups are a reaction to the regime, whereas we are fighting for a vision,” explains one of its fighters.

Though Jabhat al-Nusra says it gets most of its weapons from the spoils of battle, it also enjoys murky sources of private funding, including regular payments from al-Qaeda in Iraq. Since it captured oil wells and grain silos, it has been able—more effectively than other outfits—to set up basic services and a rudimentary administration in the areas it controls, as well as sell off goods and oil for cash. It is probably the most disciplined of all its rivals.

......

Yet it is not only Jabhat al-Nusra which expresses extreme Islamist views. Though Ahrar al-Sham has more local aims, its comrades are also vehemently Islamist. So are many of the other forces that have gained ground among the rebels, thanks in part to Gulf backing.

Rebel groups that echo more moderate and secular attitudes, for which Syria used to be praised, are smaller and less powerful.

......

A big problem for Western governments is how to decide which groups to back and how to funnel help to them. The rebels have built informal networks but still have no effective command structure. Since it was set up in December, their Supreme Military Command, led by General Salim Idriss, a Sunni defector from Mr Assad’s army, includes some able commanders but still lacks the cash and arms to match either the regime’s forces or Jabhat al-Nusra, which ignores the military command. Moreover, arms sent to one group could easily fall into the hands of another. Rebels often switch allegiance from one lot to another, often depending on its success.

......

And jealousy between rebel groups over the supply of cash and arms is fomenting strife between them. Earlier this month, two rebel commanders were assassinated in Raqqa alone. Rebels from more secular-minded or more moderately Islamist groups speak openly of a second war to come—against Jabhat al-Nusra.

http://www.economist.com/news/middle...mes-forces-and


The article gives a basic overview of what the supposed rebels and their ideologies. This gives good reason for the US to stay out of Syria completely. However, on the other hand, if things spill to far out of control the US may be getting involved one way or another...

[tw]

Originally Posted by piercehawkeye45

The article gives a basic overview of what the supposed rebels and their ideologies. This gives good reason for the US to stay out of Syria completely. However, on the other hand, if things spill to far out of control the US may be getting involved one way or another...

Those "things" must spill out so badly that local (adjacent) 'powers that be' *beg* for help. Literally *beg* by acknowledging how toothless and irresponsible they have been. (As European had to admit in Bosnia.)

How much public begging is currently happening? None. Therefore we have no business militarily involved in Syria. (But should be massively involved in collecting facts/intelligence and in discussing solutions diplomatically.)

Why no civil war in Libya? Because we did not intervene. Because enough deaths occurred in every family that 'big dic' thinking earned the contempt it deserves. Therefore ideologies on all side were replaced the intelligent (moderate) thinking. Moderates were empowered because that war was so long and devastating - a good thing.

How many years of civil war in Lebanon were required to finally replace 'big dic' advocates with moderates? So that religious stupidity was replaced with tolerance only found among moderates? Unfortunately, some really stupid Americans (ie Col Oliver North, et al) were so anti-American dumb as to intervene. Therefore America uselessly sent to their death some 200 Marines. Because we let extremists make policy. How many more times must that stupidity happen before enough Americans finally learn lessons from history?

The spillover must be so massive that local 'powers that be' all but openly *beg* in the UN. They are not yet because no where near enough people have died due to their inactions.

If and when we do respond, then moderates who make policy also announce that "We will be the meanest and nastiest dog in the region." Anything less would only be contempt for the American soldier. Which again means three necessary conditions. A smoking gun. A strategic objective. And an exit strategy. Also only possible when the local 'powers that be' finally concede and beg.

BTW, both Jordan and Turkey are slowly moving towards begging.